site.btaWill There Be New Migration Wave to Turkiye due to Clashes in Syria?

The heavy clashes in northwestern Syria, with which Turkiye has a 900-kilometer land border, have raised questions among the Turkish public whether there will be a new migration wave to Turkiye similar to that of 2011.

This question was debated on Monday by Turkish analysts in the Taksim Meydanı programme on TV100.

One of the analysts, Fuat Ugur, commented on the latest developments of the conflict in Syria, citing information from sources in the Turkish Ministry of National Defense. 

He stressed that the Turkish public is seriously concerned that the clashes could trigger a refugee wave that Turkiye would not be able to meet.

According to him, military circles are closely monitoring the situation in northwestern Syria, which is the arena of clashes between rebels from the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on the one hand and Russian air strikes, Iran, Hezbollah and the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on the other.  

"According to the Turkish military, there is likelihood that the attacks will increase and spread over a larger territory," Ugur said. "But the situation is not expected to trigger a migration wave to Turkiye similar to that of the Syrian civil war. The reason is that Russia is predominantly attacking bases of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, not civilian areas."

Rebel forces entered the Syrian city of Aleppo in a lightning offensive on December 1, posing the biggest threat to President Bashar Assad's government in years, global news agencies noted.

According to the Middle East-based Al-Aan television, quoted by the Turkish news site Diken, a large migrant wave is expected.

Meanwhile, Syrian opposition general Ahmad Rahal told Turkish TV TGRT that if Bashar al-Assad falls, so will the Kurdish People's Defense Units (YPG), a branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), declared a terrorist organization by Turkiye, the European Union and the United States. This, he said, would facilitate the return of Syrian migrants from Syria.  

According to data of the Turkish Ministry of Interior, as of October this year, there were nearly 3.9 million Syrians residing in Turkiye who had temporary resident status.