site.btaMedia Review: November 13

The prospects of a future government and the stalemate over the election of a Parliament leader are some of the main stories covered in the news media.

TALKS ON FUTURE GOVERNMENT

On Tuesday, Boyko Borissov, leader of the largest parliamentary group, said that if GERB-UDF forms a government, it will exclude MRF-New Beginning, Vazrazhdane, the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (ARF) and MECh so as to achieve a clear majority. BSP-United Left and There Is Such a People (TISP) are the first groups invited to talks on Wednesday, after which Borissov will decide whether to talk with his former government partner, the Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) coalition. Unlike previous talks when three women led GERB-UDF's negotiations, this time Borissov himself will spearhead the talks with Nazaryan, Tomislav Donchev and Rosen Zhelyazkov.

A couple of days after the October 27 elections, CC-DB set a sanitary cordon around Delyan Peevski and his MRF-New Beginning group as one of several preconditions for talks with CC-DB, which is the second largest group in Parliament. Mediapool.bg says that while GERB is reluctant to accept this condition, Borissov vowed to keep those four parties (MRF-New Beginning, Vazrazhdane, ARF and MECh) away from the government, which would make them "a strong opposition".

Borissov also reiterated that he was set on heading the government of a coalition of the other four parliamentary forces because he "will stave off any outside interference". He also said GERB-UDF would back legislation that CC-DB has designated as urgent. He, however, will not budge on Raya Nazaryan's election as Parliament's chairperson, saying that if a government coalition is achieved, the post will be renegotiated. If the GERB nominee heads Parliament, she will be one of the persons from whom the President can choose a caretaker prime minister. Nazaryan turned down the offer to lead the present caretaker government, mediapool.bg recalls.

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CC-DB's Nikolay Denkov told the Bulgarian National Television (BNT) on Tuesday evening that his group had rallied support from ARF, TISP and MECh for its anti-Peevski declaration, despite some differences. CC-DB and the three smallest groups have a total of 86 MPs in the 240-seat National Assembly.

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In TV appearances on Tuesday evening, sociologists Parvan Simeonov from Gallup International Balkan and Boryana Dimitrova from Alpha Research seemed to agree that after seven parliamentary elections in four years, most voters increasingly prefer a regular government based on compromise to new elections. Simeonov told Nova News that GERB-UDF's government formula seems realistic, Borissov has been talking about this option - a coalition government with a clear-cut political responsibility - for three months and it sounds constructive. Simeonov also said MECh may be willing to opt for new elections in a bid to win more votes, but MRF-New Beginning is also likely to win broader support.

On bTV, Dimitrova said there is a door in Parliament wide open to new elections as each party issues declarations against all the other parties. Still, there is a half-open door to forming a government through much difficult negotiating. Borissov's bid to the premiership comes in response to CC-DB's strong position in favour of a non-partisan prime minister, but a compromise can still be reached through talks.

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Political analyst Dimitar Ganev from Research Center Trend told the Bulgarian National Radio (BNR) on Wednesday that the only realistic option for a government majority is the four-party coalition named by Borissov. There will be new elections unless the four parties, or at least three of them, reach agreement. Talking about the two concepts of a prime minister - GERB's in favour of party leader and CC-DB's for an equidistant figure - Ganev said the two could meet halfway in favour of GERB's Rosen Zhelyazkov or Tomislav Donchev as prime minister. Commenting on the sanitary cordon around Peevski, Ganev said that above all, Borissov wants to avoid giving too much way, that is why he is adamant about the premiership. He also refuses to sign the declaration proposed by CC-DB, but declares that he wants a clear majority, with Peevski's MRF-New Beginning in opposition. If CC-DB accepts this offer, it will want to legitimate its involvement in governance by pressing the majority for anti-Peevski actions all the time.

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Interviewed on bTV, political analyst Maria Pirgova talked of two groups of interests in the ongoing fight for a majority:  "There are the keepers of the status quo, Borissov and Peevski, who protect their businesses and their lives. The other group is the majority of CC-DB and all the rest, who demand a new prosecutor general and judicial reforms; they themselves want to take power, apparently in the name of the national interest."

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MP Bozhidar Bozhanov who represents the Yes, Bulgaria party in the CC-DB coalition told BNR that the prime minister should be someone who does not polarize the parties, while the idea of an equidistant prime minister was made pointless during the election campaign. Bozhanov finds a trade-off of posts for policies unacceptable; in his view, a deal along the lines "I will be PM and I will act on your priorities" is not an adequate political stance.

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Interviewed by BNR, Valentin Tonchev MP of ARF said Borissov had not distanced himself from Peevski yet and the two were working on a Plan B: "They failed to achieve what they wanted and are now looking for a convenient coalition which will change society's agenda: a prosecutor general and a Supreme Administrative Court president will be elected through tricks in Parliament, and the anti-corruption legislation will not be enacted, especially where it concerns the application of Magnitsky sanctions in Bulgaria. In six or seven months we will be back to square one, with Peevski and Borissov together in a much stronger position." [Tonchev was referring to Global Magnitsky-designated Peevski.]

The MP affirmed that ARF is the only political force which could guarantee that Peevski will not be involved in any way, and urged Borissov to negotiate with the Alliance. He argued that Borissov had lumped ARF with Peevski's New Beginning, with which ARF has "absolutely nothing in common". Tonchev called MRF-New Beginning "a political Frankenstein" and "an absolute humiliation for the country".

ELECTION OF PARLIAMENT LEADER

The general opinion is that the stalemate over the election of a Parliament chairperson will continue. Neither GERB-UDF nor CC-DB managed to win more than half of the votes of those present on Monday (i.e. at least 118 votes) as Raya Nazaryan and Andrey Tsekov were backed by 68 MPs each. Parliament's second attempt to elect a chairperson on Wednesday also failed.

Bozhidar Bozhanov MP of CC-DB told BNR that no one seems to be working to complete the election as each group claims it is owed something. TISP's proposal, that the most senior MP Silvi Kirilov head Parliament until someone is elected, seems acceptable, "but a chairperson always comes with expectations for a majority, that is why no one can be elected until there is a clear law-making programme". Bozhanov said CC-DB insists on legislation on the application of Magnitsky sanctions through amendments to the Measures against Money Laundering Act, which will seek probes into persons connected with those designated under the Global Magnitsky Act so as to crack down on money laundering through vote buying. The MP claimed that Peevski, who relies on protection by the investigation and prosecution services, can buy any number of votes and say there are no documents to prove it.

Research Center Trend analyst Dimitar Ganev told BNR that the parties are giving themselves some leeway for manoeuvres because once the chairperson is elected and Parliament starts functioning, the President opens the government-forming procedure. Ganev also said the election is slowed down by the fact that the chairperson is on the list of potential caretaker prime ministers.

Former Constitutional Court judge Plamen Kirov says in Trud the rules for electing the Parliament leader are illogical and breach the Constitution. The five nominees of different parliamentary groups are alternative candidates, and since only one of them can be elected, each MP should vote in favour of the nominee he or she likes. The MPs should either vote against or abstain on all the rest of the nominees.

TRUMP'S ELECTION

Prof Zdravko Popov, President of the Public Policy Institute, talks in a Trud interview about the implications of Donald Trump's election for the world and for Bulgaria. Talking about the conservative paradigm, Popov says: "It is about a conservative model of thinking and a conservative way to implement the US presence in the world. American national interests come first, meaning that US politics, US business and the US middle class come first." First, Trump and the Republicans will minimize the role of international organizations because they reduce America's role as the global leader in everything. Second, a very strong protectionist policy will mean that anyone who wants to tap the US privileges must be based in the US, or else pay very high tariffs. It is also very likely that as soon as he enters the Oval Office, Trump will open a foreign policy procedure for negotiations on ending Russia's war against Ukraine, and a peace-for-territory trade-off seems to be the most realistic formula. As to the implications of Trump's election for Bulgaria, it is Southeastern Europe as a whole that is part of the priorities of American business and politics, rather than any individual country, and this is unlikely to change. Europe as a whole will probably go through a very long period of readjustment and of seeking some balance between its own and American interests. Popov said that after the change in US administration, he expects a major contest among the leading political parties in Bulgaria. They will suddenly become very close to the Republicans' conservatism and will try to declare loyalty to America, but nothing much will change. "Bulgaria's politicians are chameleons, they have (…) no roots either in ideology or values. Their guiding motives are power and increasing the wealth of their parties and of the companies associated with the parties."

PROBLEMS IN THE AIR FORCE

An inspection ordered by the Defence Minister after a trainer aircraft crashed in September killing the two pilots on board, has brought to light problems with discipline, inefficient commanders, underfunded maintenance of aircraft and gaps in regulations, 24 Chasa says. President Radev will have to decide whether to impose punishments on Air Force generals as will be proposed by Defence Minister Atanas Zapryanov.

Interviewed by bTV, former Air Force pilot Prof Dimitar Nedyalkov, now lecturer at the National Defence College, said problems in the military aviation have not been tackled in the last 30 years. He stressed that the cost of a round of elections, BGN 100 million, is equal to the budget of two air bases. He sees the following possible solutions: additional financing, maintenance of the available equipment, increased flight hours, and more trainer aircraft - otherwise there will be problems with the F-16 fighters Bulgaria will get delivered. Young pilots have faced insufficient aviation resources for over 20 years now. Older and experienced pilots do combat duty, leaving insufficient aviation resources for the young. This is the result of Plan 2004, which led to the present critical situation. It was also then that the Air Force school was closed. It will take 10 years to bring things back to normal, said Prof Nedyalkov.

ECONOMY

24 Chasa debunks the myth of Black Friday sales. The discounted cell phones, cameras and computers are old models and have to be discounted anyway. Most often the discounts start long before November, simply to offload them and make room for the new models. The daily concludes that one can hardly get an appreciable price reduction, especially for a quality product.

The same daily leads with a story that Builders are most in demand in Bulgaria now. Nearly BGN 12 billion is being invested in the construction sector in 2024-2026. At the same time, the industry needs 33,100 more workers in construction-related jobs, according to the Institute for Market Economics.