site.btaMedia Review: November 12

PARLIAMENT - INAUGURATION

Bulgaria’s 51st National Assembly held its inaugural sitting on Monday. Eight parties and coalitions entered Parliament after the October 27 snap elections: GERB-UDF (69 seats), Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) (37 seats), Vazrazhdane (35 seats), Movement for Rights and Freedoms - New Beginning (30 seats), BSP-United Left (20 seats), Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (19 seats), There Is Such a People (TISP) (18 seats), MECh (Morality, Unity, Honour) (12 seats).

Capital.bg summarizes developments of the first day of the new legislature.

After refusing to sign a declaration put forward by Continue the Change – Democratic (CC-DB) Bulgaria for a sanitary cordon around Delyan Peevski and his party MRF-New Beginning, GERB leader Boyko Borissov suggested a cabinet that would seem acceptable in view of that, but without guarantees for a real neutralization of Peevski.

On Monday, before the start of the 51st legislature, Borissov proposed a four-party coalition between GERB-UDF, CC - DB, BSP and There Is Such a People. Outside the government should remain MRF - New Beginning of Delyan Peevski, the Alliance for Rights and Freedom of Ahmed Dogan, Vazrazhdane and MECh.

The GERB leader, however, set a condition that he will be prime minister: "Such a government can only be run by me. Borissov pointed to the good international contacts he has in the EU and the US as his advantages.

According to Borissov, the only possibility for a regular government is on the first mandate. Once again, he rejected a possibility of forming a cabinet on the second or third mandate.

Later in the plenary hall, while parties were reading out their programme declarations, GERB developed their idea. MP Toma Bikov said that his formation would not stand behind a cabinet that is defined as "technical or expert". In his view, this dilutes political responsibility, and such a government will only deepen the crisis of democracy. That is why GERB is in favour of a coalition in which the participants should be proportionally represented on the basis of the election results.

In a way that echoed previous post-election situations, the political groups in the new parliament failed to unite around a single candidate for a speaker and so on the very first working day of the 51st National Assembly the deputies found themselves in a stalemate - without this election the parliamentary groups cannot be formed, the amendments to the rules of procedure of the institution cannot be adopted, the parliamentary committees cannot be formed and their work is practically blocked. The figure of the parliamentary speaker, besides being crucial to its work, has another big stake - he is part of a list of senior officials from which, according to the latest changes to the Constitution, the President selects a caretaker prime minister.

And if this National Assembly also fails and Bulgaria heads to early elections again, the person elected to the post will be a potential prime minister. Five of the eight parliamentary formations have put forward their candidates for the chairmanship. GERB nominated Raya Nazaryan, CC-DB - Andrey Tsekov, Vazrahdane - Petar Petrov, BSP - Natalia Kiselova, and There Is Such a People - Nikoleta Kuzmanova. Two of the candidates, Raya Nazaryan and Andrey Tsekov, received the most votes and went to a ballot. In the re-vote, the two received the same number of votes - 68. Nazaryan was supported only by GERB MPs, as Borissov did not participate in the vote. Tsekov's nomination also had support from other parties - Ahmed Dogan's Alliance for Rights and Freedoms and Radostin Vassilev's MECh.

INTERVIEWS

TrudNews.bg carries an interview with Kuzman Iliev, in which he comments on the unclear political situation, who will head the National Assembly, who will head the government, whether there will be a government and the possibility of a full or partial annulment of the election results,

Iliev says that that political players are waiting, because it suits practically everyone.

Even in this environment if he wants, Borissov can make a cabinet. Iliev speculates that the GERB leader is waiting for Trump to assume power on January 1 and for the war to stop so that he has more options. But he calls this risky because the situation is changing fast. Bulgaria has very serious internal problems such as electricity shortages, which forces Bulgaria to import electricity from Turkiye, and from partners who are unpredictable.

There is a danger of food shortage because of drilling in Bulgaria’s breadbasket, Dobrudja, and wind parks. Overall, agriculture suffers from water and irrigation shortages. There are real problems to solve.

Iliev says that the chances of cancelling the elections are increasing. The media showed abuses. And definitely, even if there is annulment, Bulgaria will be headed towards new elections in the spring. Because the balance of power is such, it is already clear that GERB and PPDB will not sit together, and this is the only formula for a stable government. Even if there is such a cassation, we are heading for new elections in any case. At stake is the democratic choice of the people, but the question is if would have made a significant difference, if there are political entities that offer an alternative, in terms of professionalism, approval and legitimacy.

Iliev argues that this rate of erosion is natural and inevitable, and that he expects a new project to emerge – which will attract those 1.5 million who are eligible to vote and who were active until recently. It is only the emergence of a new power centre with a new profile - for example a project of President Radev or some movement that will attract people who perceive Bulgaria as a player that can have its own geopolitical mission, goal, national ideal that is not influenced by the geopolitical hegemon Washington and Brussels.

***

Interviewed by 24 Chasa, PR expert Diana Damyanova says that Delyan Peevski's results in the elections infuriated Continue the Change because of their own weak result which was low against the backdrop of increased turnout. Damyanova says that her former proteges of Continue the Change are politically inadequate and because of this they change concepts one after another. Damyanova says that Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) are headed for elections. Each statement they make supports that

From now on there is only one option and that is for Boyko Borissov to succeed in making some construction that is strong enough to have political legitimacy and to exclude CC-DB.

Borissov has no chance of making a stable coalition government. He has to make a minority or expert one in which he can get support from wider parliamentary circles. 

She estimates the chances for that at about 20-30%, because it is probably possible with support from here. Bulgaria needs its issues to be solved, to transition to a new economy, push the button to get back into energy, and have full consensus on the construction of the new reactors at Kozloduy N-plant, regardless of time and design complications.

There is an alternative in the mind of CC, together with Vazrazhdane, the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms of Dogan. to elect a National Assembly chair, who will then be nominated as caretaker prime minister.

Damyanova spells out the possible scenarios. After a month and a half-long procedure for the election of a speaker of Parliament, the parties will find some way around and then Borissov will make a government of experts, backed by There Is Such a People, and a minority government, which would be his right choice. It could be supported unquestionably by Delyan Peevski, the MRF of Ahmed Dogan, BSP and TISP. Or a quick election of a chairman of CC and Vazrazhdane. Damyanova says that the only compromise CC-DB will make is for a speaker of the National Assembly together with Vazrazhdane, as they are headed for elections.

***

Speaking on Bulgarian National Radio, Orlin Kolev, professor at constitutional law, said that even without an elected speaker of the National Assembly, the procedure for a government could proceed. The inability to elect a chair would not prevent the formation of a government. However, parliamentary groups would have to be formed through registration. This would allow the President to consult the parliamentary groups.

"Currently, the MPs are waiting, conveniently justifying themselves with the fact that they cannot elect a parliament chair. But they should constitute the parliamentary groups."

The procedure for electing a National Assembly chair has been well established for years, he said, adding that it was clear and simple.

Regarding the two cases for partial and full annulment of the elections initiated by the Constitutional Court, Orlin Kolev said:

"The Constitutional Court will not consider the admissibility of these claims until the end of this week. On Thursday, the 15-day period within which a petition to the court can be submitted expires. From next week, the Constitutional Court could consider the admissibility of the claims. And according to the extent that they are supported by evidence and that evidence is confirmed by the experts that the Court will appoint, then I guess the elections will be partially annulled and parliamentary sears will be rearranged."

It is too far-fetched to talk about a new constitution, constitutional reform or general political overhaul at the moment, said Kolev the constitutionalist.

ECONOMY

Sega.bg writes that the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) has warned in its latest Economic Review that wage and benefit hikes will drive up prices and inflation will go up after the New Year.

After inflation in Bulgaria slowed down noticeably in 2024 and in September reached its lowest level in four years -1.2% on an annual basis, it is expected to go up again in early 2025. The main reason will be income growth, which will boost domestic consumption. This in turn will put upward pressure on prices - especially services and food.

According to the central bank, the decline in inflation will continue until the end of 2024, accelerating "moderately" in the first quarter of 2025.

Strong private consumption and labour cost growth are the main factors that drive inflation, BNB said. They lead to an increase in consumer prices of a number of services and food.

BNB does not give a specific forecast for average annual inflation next year, neither the Finance Ministry presented the macroeconomic framework for Budget 2025.

The central bank stressed that in recent years, policies to increase social payments, compensation of public sector employees and the minimum wage have supported increases in disposable income and household consumption and have created a precondition for sustained high inflation in the more demand-sensitive components of inflation, such as services.

As of, 2025, the minimum wage and salaries in a number of budget sectors will be increased. The minimum wage will increase by 15% - from BGN 933 to BGN 1,077. In the Ministries of the Interior and Defence wage increases of 30 to 50% are planned. Teachers' salaries will also increase by up to 20%, as will those of staff in higher education.

One of the proposals of the Finance Ministry to restrict the looming huge deficit of around BGN 12 billion in the 2025 budget is to postpone the salary increases until 2026. In this way Bulgaria can avoid the risk next year to exceed the requirement of around 2% annual inflation to be invited into the eurozone.