site.btaNearly Quarter of Active Voters Yet to Decide Who to Support in June 9 Elections - Mediana Poll

A survey by the Mediana polling agency shows that nearly a quarter of the traditional voters have not yet decided who they will vote for in the June 9 elections. These are about 600,000 voters who could radically change the picture if they swing one way or the other, the pollsters concluded. 

The survey on public and political attitudes was conducted between May 12 and 18, 2024 among 978 adult Bulgarians through direct standardised interview and is representative of Bulgaria's adult population. The opinion poll is a research project of Mediana and was implemented with own funds. 

The results of this survey are not a forecast, but reflect a snapshot of public and political attitudes in the country three weeks before the elections, the analysts said. 

The opinion poll shows GERB currently leads, and is significantly ahead of everyone else. Second with 12% behind is Vazrazhdane. The erosion of confidence in the Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria coalition appears to continue, and the formation is now in fourth position after the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, whose electorate seems to be highly mobilised, the pollsters commented. Both the Bulgarian Socialist Party and There Is Such a People are expected to make it in the next National Assembly. 

Three more formations retain a serious chance of entering the new parliament: Blue Bulgaria, The Left!, and Bulgarian Solidarity Coalition. There is an obvious search for an alternative to the traditional parties both on the left and on the right, the survey shows. 

The elections themselves are being devalued, turning into a kind of battle of supporters (rather than a debate on how to live and where to go). Thus, European elections are rated as very important by only 35% of voters and parliamentary elections by only 52%. 

The study shows a marked scepticism and distrust towards the basis of democracy - elections. The dominant feeling is that elections are a "pacifier" for voters and that who and how will govern is decided by other forces outside the electoral process. This predetermines both the demand for alternative political formations and low voter turnout. Voters are caught in a kind of psychological trap. More and more of them are convinced that nothing depends on the elections and do not vote. As a result, only the die-hards (and the bought voters) vote, thus confirming the conclusion already drawn: "nothing depends on elections", the Mediana pollsters commented. They expect low turnout again, with between 2.5 and 2.7 million voters at the polling stations.