site.btaNational Statistical Institute President: To Meet Eurozone Criteria, Bulgaria Needs Quick, Effective Anti-inflation Measures

In an interview for BTA on the occasion of European Statistics Day, National Statistical Institute (NSI) President Atanas Atanasov forecast that the inflation in Bulgaria will continue to slow down until the end of 2023 and in 2024, judging by the analyses of the Bulgarian National Bank and the European Commission. He noted, however, that the forecasts are being made in an insecure environment, including because of the dynamics in fuel prices, the minimum wage's amount as of 2024, the lack of clarity on how long the war in Ukraine will continue, and the political situation in Bulgaria.

Additionally, NSI's regural surveys on the business climate outline the attitudes of businesses in Bulgaria, and almost all manages in every sector note the insecure economic environment as the main problem. That makes it hard for them to plan their business, and one can hardly forecast where the economy will head, Atanasov said. Therefore, it is not very probable that the forecasts will become a reality, he added.

Eurozone

Bulgaria's inflation rate is still higher than the average in the euro area, Atanasov commented. That means that to meet the eurozone's inflation criteria, the country needs quick and effective anti-inflation measures through which to bring the inflation rate down faster than what is happening in the euzorone countries.

Impact of German economy's deceleration

According to Atanasov, Bulgaria will feel the effect of German economy's deceleration but more softly, because the unemployment rate here is still low. However, the situation may change depending on the decisions being taken in relation to the protesting miners; that could lead to a real rise in unemployment.

Revision of composite indices

The revision of the composite indices whose denominator includes the number of the population, such as the GDP per capita, mortality and birth rate data should be completed by the end of 2023. The revision is a standard one of the EU and is related to the current picture between the two national population censuses. The indices are expected to increase, Atanasov specified.

New consumer basket

By the end of 2023, the NSI will specify the level of households' consumption and next year, it will propose possible changes in the list of goods and services in the big and small consumer baskets for 2024. This year's basket includes 853 goods and services used by households. Last year, the NSI removed from the basket goods with very limited sales, such as compact discs, he recalled.

Single entry point

Work is being done on the Registry Agency joining the existing single entry point of the NSI and the National Revenue Agency, as set in the Cabinet's governance programme. The goal is to free respondents from the need to submit two or even three times the information on the corresponding NSI surveys. The work should be completed by October 2024, Atanasov said.

Modern statistics

Contemporary statistics should use both more administrative sources and information from private data holders, which are companies with information that can be used for statistical needs, the NSI President told BTA. He gave as examples electricity distribution companies and mobile operators, whose data could be used in expanding tourist travel statistics. 

Other forms of collecting information for statistical purposes are by scanning the web. In this way, different prices of goods can be identified and can be obtained directly from the retail chains while respecting the confidentiality of the information. This would allow the NSI to start calculating regional inflation and the calculation of general inflation to be based on many more goods and services. Such a modern method could also be used to collect data on hotel room rates, for example through the Bookings platform, which would enrich the study of tourist travel.

Similar pilot tests have already been carried out in Slovenia, Poland, and the Scandinavian countries, the NSI President said. The issue is to allow access to such information at European level for statistical purposes only, without publishing personal data, he added. Atanasov noted that the issue is already being discussed at the European level, predicting that there could be a relevant European regulation within this European Parliament.

Updated demographic forecast

The updated demographic forecast on the population's development by gender and regions until 2085 is expected to be ready in early 2024, he said. It will have three scenarios, including a pessimistic and an optimistic one. Bulgaria has such a forecast but it is based on the second to last census and is for the period until 2080, Atanasov specified.