site.btaBulgarian Academy of Sciences: Zero Population Growth Most Optimistic Goal for Bulgaria

Bulgarian Academy of Sciences: Zero Population Growth Most Optimistic Goal for Bulgaria

Sofia, November 24 (BTA) - The maximum Bulgaria can aim for is zero population growth, Prof Mitko Dimitrov, Director of the Economic Research Institute with the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS), told a conference on "A National Strategy for Demographic Development of Bulgaria 2012-2030: Priorities and Challenges".

The forum was organized by the Labour and Social Policy Ministry on Tuesday.

Prof Dimitrov presented the findings of a report commissioned by the Social Policy Ministry and entitled "Objectives, Priorities and Policies for Implementation of the Demographic Development Strategy of Bulgaria".

The scientists hold that Bulgaria could achieve a moderate increase in the birth rate to 10 or 11 per thousand population, and a more tangible drop in the mortality rate to 11 or 12 per thousand. Similarly to the other East European countries, Bulgaria has no great potential to increase its birth rate, which largely depends on economic development. Birth rates trended up until 2008-2009 and then slumped in all countries. Young families need stable jobs and incomes as well as prospects, said Dimitrov. He expects that years with high economic growth can see an increase in birth rates by 0.5 or 1 per thousand.

Compared to the other East European countries, Bulgaria has the highest death rate at over 15 per thousand population as against an average of 12 per 1,000 population in Eastern Europe and 10 per thousand in the EU. Population growth can be achieved mainly by reducing the death rate, which is considerably higher in Bulgaria for men aged over 45 than in the EU. The BAS says early deaths can be reduced by 20 per cent, meaning 15,000 or 20,000 lives saved.

The death rate is influenced by various diseases, although three groups account for 75 to 80 per cent of deaths in all age groups: neoplasms, circulatory disorders and external causes of disease.

The BAS recommends a more active policy of attracting immigrants and expatriate Bulgarians, which is hard to achieve given the economic realities in Bulgaria. The following target numbers could be set: between 60,000 and 180,000 Bulgarian emigrants returning; between 5,000 and 10,000 ethnic Bulgarians coming to live in Bulgaria every year; and attracting between 45,000 and 185,000 immigrants from countries which seek to join the EU.