site.btaUPDATED Gallup Poll: Two Days Ahead of Elections, GERB-UDF Has 10 Ppts Lead on Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria

Two days ahead of the two-in-one elections for national and European Parliament in Bulgaria, GERB-UDF has a lead of 10 percentage point on runner-up Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria, according to a Gallup poll for the Bulgarian National Radio released Friday. In early June, 40.2% of respondents were determined to vote in the national elections. 3.5% say they would vote "None of the above". 

The expected turnout is lower for the European elections, at 37.7%.  3.1% will vote "None of the above".

The poll was taken among 1,003 adult respondents in a representative sample via face-to-face interviews with tablets between May 29 and June 4. 

The poll gives a snapshot of the voter attitudes and if it materializes, the national election results would look like this:

GERB-UDF - 25.9%;

CC-DB – 15.7%;

Vazrazhdane – 15.5%;

Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) - 15.3%; 

BSP for Bulgaria - 8%;

There Is Such a People – 6.1%. 

The analysts comment that at this stage it is hard to tell for sure which party will come second.

Bulgarian Solidarity and Blue Bulgaria are comfortably positioned to win seats (with this poll giving them 3.1% and 2.8%, respectively). Vassil Bozhkov's coalition, as well as the party of TISP break-away Radostin vassilev, the Green Movement and the party of former Prosecutor General Ivan Geshev also have chances to get in the national parliament.

The barrier to entry in the legislature is 4%.

Here is how the figures for the EP election look (quite similar to the national elections:

GERB-UDF -  25.7%;

CC-DB –  15.9%;

Vazrazhdane –  15.4%;

Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) - 14.9%;

BSP for Bulgaria - 7.9%;

There Is Such a People –  5.9% (which puts it close to the barrier for EP representation).