site.btaWill the Netherlands Keep Turning Right?

Will the Netherlands keep turning right? That is the question many are asking themselves about the forthcoming European Parliament (EP) elections on June 6. A record-high number of parties - twenty - have registered for the elections. The latest polls confirm that the winner will be the far-right and EU-skeptical Party for Freedom, which sociologists believe will win between 8 and 10 out of the Netherlands' 31 MEP seats and will become the top party in the country after winning the parliamentary elections in November 2024. 

According to the polls, the second place will go to the GreenLeft coalition with 8 MEPs. The parties from Renew Europe might have 7 MEPs and the parties from the European People's Party group, 4 MEPs.  There are at least eight parties that might get one MEP seat or none, such as the Animals Party, which is unique for Europe and the world and had one member in the previous EP. 

What interests the Dutch?

The real estate market, immigration, and international insecurity: these are three topics that interest the Dutch more than they did five years ago, shows a survey presented by the Ipsos I&O polling agency on Tuesday. Sixty-two percent of the Dutch think that the EU should do more to strengthen European defence.

In fourth place of importance is climate change, but that is considered more rarely as a main problem that back in 2019.

Digital insecurity (included for the first time in the Ipsos poll) and the growing division in society are also considered important. Next are social and cultural matters (income inequality/poverty, labour market/employment), which are considered less important now than in 2019. However, the risk to democracy and rule of law is felt more than five years ago, the findings show.

Who will vote?

According to a representative poll by Panel Inzicht commissioned by the daily Algemeen Dagblad, the Dutch will vote en masse: 68% said they would definitely or probably vote.

However, analysts believe that the voter turnout will be around 42%, the same as in the European elections five years ago. However, this is far lower - almost twice - than the turnout in last November's parliamentary elections. 

Of those who will vote, 42% say they already know which party they will cast a ballot for. Twenty-nine percent are unsure, and the other 29% still have no idea. This is not surprising, as the survey shows that most Dutch people have almost no idea who is on the ballot: 55% do not know a single top-of-the-list MEP candidate.

"I don't know the candidates, but I will vote," Niels, 23, told BTA. He will make his choice thanks to StemWijzer (VoteWizard), an online platform that compares the answers to 30 statements with party programmes and gives an idea of which one the voter is closest to. Niels has no party loyalty: he will punish the party he voted for in the general election for "doing stupidities". Such "floating" voters are not few in the Netherlands.

According to an Eurobarometer survey, 59% of young Dutch people say they will vote. A firm "no" is said by 21%, one of the highest percentages in the EU. "I think elections are important. But I did not inform myself about them and I will not vote," Britt, 25, told BTA. "I don't know, I have more important things right now. I don't care about elections," 19-year-old Isha also said. But her peer Beatrice is of a different opinion: "It is important, because we decide who will care for our future. I will vote."

The election campaign: rather dull

In the Netherland, the EP election campaign was pushed to the background by the formation of a new government and the presentation of the new Prime Minister.

An interesting moment in the campaign was the Grandparents for Climate movement. "We are getting people to vote on Thursday for parties that have included action against climate change in their programme," the movement told BTA during a rally in The Hague. What is important, they said, is what the elderly will leave to their grandchildren: not only in the Netherlands, but also in Bulgaria and throughout Europe.

None of the four parties that will make up the next Dutch government - the Party for Freedom, the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy, the New Social Contract and the Farmer- Citizen Movement - has information about its European policies on its websites, DutchNews notes. And polls suggest these parties will win half of the Dutch seats in the European Parliament.

According to data from the Nielsen research agency, published by the daily Volkskrant, the Dutch parties have not spent much money on the European election campaigns: EUR 215,000 gross - three-fold more than in the 2019 European elections, but incomparably less than the EUR 3.3 million for the national elections in November 2023.

Why do the Dutch vote on Thursday?

They answer this question with a counter question, "Why not on Wednesday?" 

Traditionally the Dutch vote on Wednesdays. The government wants to give as many eligible voters as possible the opportunity to vote, explains the Electoral Council. For religious reasons, Friday, Saturday and Sunday are excluded. Monday is also off, as preparations for the elections will then have to take place largely over the weekend. That leaves the electiosn between Tuesday and Thursday. Wednesday is chosen because many primary schools are not used that day in the afternoon, and polling stations are often located there.

The decision to hold the 2024 elections on a Thursday in the Netherlands was taken at European level in the Single European Act for a four-day period: Thursday to Sunday. And the closest thing to Wednesday for the Dutch is Thursday.

When will the results become known?

On election day, June 6, polling data on voter turnout can be made public. The results from the elections will become known to the Dutch at the same time as everyone else in the EU: on the evening of June 9, when the EP elections in all Member States conclude.