site.btaUPDATED Centre for Analysis and Market Poll: Five Political Formations to Enter Parliament

Centre for Analysis and Marketing (CAM) Director Yulii Pavlov said Thursday that Bulgaria is likely to have five political formations to enter parliament after the April 2 early parliamentary elections. He presented at the BTA National Press Club data from a nationally representative poll conducted in the period March 16-19 among 1,021 adult Bulgarians through direct standardized interviews. The poll was implemented and funded by CAM.

According to the survey data, the coalition Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) receive 25.7% of the vote of respondents, and GERB-UDF - 24.7%. Pavlov pointed out that the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) rank third with 13.8% support, followed by Vazrazhdane with 12.5% and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) with 8.1%. The chances of The Left!, which according to the poll gets 4%, breaking the four percent barrier two weeks before the vote are 50-50, Pavlov said. There Is Such People (TISP) and Bulgarian Rise are tied at about 3%. 

Pavlov commented that the difference between first and second is within the stochastic error, but he said there are factors that work for the CC-DB coalition to be first, including voters abroad and those who will make a last-minute decision to vote.

Some 61.2% of the respondents believe that the new parliament should elect a regular government, even at the cost of major compromises. Another 25% say that "red lines", set out by parties, should not be crossed in the name of forming a majority in parliament.

Pavlov commented that the greatest desire for the formation of a regular government is among the voters of GERB-UDF. Nearly 80% of them think that a regular government should be formed, even at the cost of big compromises, while the figure for the same statistic is 70% for CC-DB.

Nearly a third of respondents think that the new parliament will elect a regular government, but nearly half (48.2%) are of the opinion that it rather will not, therefore, pessimism prevails. 

Pavlov said that CAM expects between 2.4 and 2.7 million people to go to the polls on April 2. He commented that the return of the paper ballot was a good solution to increase voter turnout, as the "shock introduction of forced machine voting had turned away almost half a million people." According to him, they would not return for these elections as they were disappointed with the behaviour of politicians.

Optimism is observed among PP-DB and GERB-UDF voters. Nearly 60% go to vote because they expect a regular government to be formed. 

According to 50.3% of the respondents, if none of the leading political forces succeeds in forming a majority, the best option for the country is to form a government of experts, supported by the CC-DB and GERB-UDF, without the participation of the political leaders. 30% are of the opinion that President Rumen Radev should continue to govern through caretaker governments.

Pavlov commented that the expert government option is supported by two thirds of the respondents who indicate that they will cast their vote for CC-DB and three quarters of the supporters of GERB-UDF. 

Three quarters of the respondents (74.7%) do not think that the date of Bulgaria's National Day - March 3 - should be changed. Only 16% think it should be changed. As expected, BSP and Vazrazhdane supporters do not want for the date to be changed, but more than 60% of CC-DB and GERB-UDF supporters also think that the national day should remain on March 3. 

Pavlov noted that, since the start of the year, there is no politician with a positive rating where trust in them is greater than distrust. President Rumen Radev has 44% approval, followed by Vice President Iliana Iotova with 37.3% approval, and caretaker Prime Minister Galab Donev with 34.1%. The approval for Boyko Borisov (GERB-UDF), Kiril Petkov (CC-DB), Asen Vassilev (CC-DB), Maya Manolova (The Left!), Stefan Yanev (Bulgarian Rise), Ognian Gerdzhikov (National Movement for Surge and Stability), Iva Miteva (Together), and Kostadin Kostadinov (Vazrazhdane) ranges between 20-25%.

For 31.4% of respondents the caretaker government is doing rather well, another 52.6% think it is doing poorly. 

The most important issue for voters during the election campaign is the high prices and inflation. Nearly 90% of the people mentioned it, followed by the issues of health care and the fight against corruption, identified as the most important during the campaign by 35 %, the issue of social policy was mentioned by 24.8% and Bulgaria's position regarding the war in Ukraine is the most important to 21.4%.

Pavlov said that the interest towards BSP's campaign on the topic of fighting gender ideology in Bulgaria does not receive much attention. 83.5% believe that the state should introduce a price cap on basic food products. High prices, inflation, unemployment and low incomes were identified as a main problem for 64.3% of respondents.