site.btaWill "New Paradigm" in Turkish-Kurdish Relations Help Bury the Hatchet?

Prominent Diyarbakir lawmaker Galip Ensarioglu of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has forecasted that the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) will end its decades-long armed struggle against the Turkish state this spring. "I believe weapons will fall silent no later than Newroz (the Kurdish New Year celebrated on March 21)," Ensarioglu said in an interview with the Turkish website Yirmidort Saat.

The lawmaker described the development as part of a "new paradigm" addressing critical issues such as a peaceful resolution to the Kurdish question, democratic reforms, potential house arrest for PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, and the future of imprisoned Kurdish political leader Selahattin Demirtas.

The "new paradigm" is tied to a process initiated months ago by Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and an ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Speaking to Parliament, Bahceli recently proposed allowing Ocalan to address the legislature and publicly call on PKK militants to disarm. This proposal marked a dramatic shift, given Bahceli's previous hardline stance against Ocalan.
 
Following Bahceli's surprising statement, a government-approved delegation from the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) visited Ocalan on İmralı Island—his first meeting with outside representatives in a decade. Ocalan responded by emphasizing the historical responsibility of fostering Turkish-Kurdish unity and pledged his commitment to the peace process.

Strengthening Turkish-Kurdish brotherhood is not only a historical responsibility but also an urgent necessity for all peoples, Ocalan stated. 

The delegation, led by influential Kurdish politician Ahmet Turk, subsequently met with Turkish officials, including parliamentary speaker Numan Kurtulmus and MHP leader Bahceli. The assumption is that they reported details from their talks with Ocalan and future steps to be taken.

Turk indicated that after further dialogue, Ocalan might formally call on PKK militants to disarm.

The meetings of the Kurdish delegation continued with talks with the leader of the Future Party Ahmet Davutoglu.

On Monday, a meeting took place with representatives of the ruling AKP, which lasted about an hour and a half, but without the participation of President Erdogan, who is also the chairman of the AKP. Abdullah Guler, the AKP deputy floor leader, made a terse statement in which he said that the dialogue had been sincere and in a warm atmosphere. He promised to provide details in the coming days.

According to pro-government media, Erdogan is not expected to receive the delegation at this stage.

The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) is more reserved, weighed down by the words of Erdogan, who has publicly accused it of "collaborating with the DEM" on more than one occasion.

DEM co-chairwoman Tulay Hatimoglu recently said in a speech to supporters in Diyarbakır and İzmir that "just meetings in Imralı are not enough, the doors of Imralı must be opened," OdaTV reported. Hatimoglu has warned that if their demands are not met, the situation could become "like Gaza" - a signal that the process holds many dangers.

Birgun newspaper reported that the delegation will also visit DEM co-chairman Selahattin Demirtas. They say that, although Demirtas has been in prison since 2016, he continues to have influence over some Kurdish circles and the aim now is to bring them into the process.

In the beginning, Bahceli's statements stood out more. These days, however, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's statements get more of the attention.

In a speech to participants in the AKP's regional congress in the city of Samsun on January 4, reported by the Anadolu News Agency, Erdogan said that "from now on, everyone must accept the truth that the era of guns, violence and terror is over”. “The separatist murderers will either bury their weapons as soon as possible or be buried with their weapons. There is no third way," he said.

Erdogan used similar wording at a regional congress of the AKP in the city of Rize, stressing that "there is no room for terror in our region anymore, and there is no room in the future of our country or our region."

Analyst Murat Yetkin of Yetkin Report, wrote in a commentary under the headline "What Erdogan wants", that "Erdogan wants the PKK to bury the weapons as soon as possible".

"This would mean that the PKK would announce that it is giving up the armed struggle it has been waging since 1978 and would effectively disband itself. The threat that they will otherwise be ‘buried’ makes both metaphorical and literal sense: the addressee of the threat is no longer in Turkiye, but in Syria and Iraq, where the PKK has armed forces operating thanks to its cooperation with the US. The indications are that Turkiye is preparing to hit the PKK forces with all its might. Inspections by Defence Minister Yashar Guler and army commanders at strategic points along the borders with Syria, Iraq and Iran point to this conclusion," he writes. 

At the same time, however, there is also strong criticism in Turkiye against the process that Bahceli has started, especially the part about Ocalan, whom millions of Turks consider "the murderer of over 40 000 Turkish citizens, including soldiers and children". Leaders of political parties such as the nationalist Good Party, the Victory Party and others have pointed out that the government's moves against Ocalan will lead to increased tensions.

Media outlets critical of Erdogan, such as the Nefes and Sozcu newspapers, write that "behind the process of opening up to the Kurdish question is Erdogan's plan, with the assistance of Bahceli, to attract the Kurdish electorate in order to be re-elected president." 

MP Galip Ensarioglu also stresses the likelihood of increasing tensions.

"The process needs to get the approval of broad sectors of society to achieve a positive result," he said in the interview in question.

However, quite a significant part of society hopes the new initiative will finally put an end to terror.

"Now is the time when we are closest to peace," a number of media outlets said.

The big question awaiting an answer is whether Abdullah Ocalan's authority will be enough and whether the de facto leaders of the PKK will listen to him to end the armed struggle that has claimed tens of thousands of lives. On the other side of the scales is the pro-Kurdish DEM, which makes no secret of the fact that it will have demands. Nor are there few claims that, after 25 years of isolation, Abdullah Ocalan has no clout in the PKK leadership.

It is noteworthy that the Turkish media refer to Ocalan as "head of the terrorist organisation".

The Erdogan-Bahceli "new paradigm" on the Kurdish issue comes ten years after the Turkiye - PKK peace process of 2013-2015. Back then, a 65-member committee of "smart people" from various segments of society was founded on the initiative of Erdogan, then prime minister. But the process ended without result.

In the new paradigm, the focus is on PKK terror. The Erdogan-Bahceli seem determined in their actions to address that.

The PKK has been waging an armed struggle against the Turkish state since 1984 and is seen as a terrorist organization by Turkiye, the EU and the US. Tens of thousands have died in the conflict. The Turkish authorities regard the PKK as a threat to national security and regularly conduct raids against its supporters in the country and operations in northern Syria and Iraq.