site.btaUPDATED By Early August, 28.4% Sure to Vote in October Elections - Gallup Poll

As of early August, 28.4% of Bulgarians we certain that they would vote in snap general elections, according to a nationally representative poll conducted by Gallup International Balkan. Of all who said they would vote, 2.5% would choose the option "I support no one". 

Some 802 adult Bulgarians were interviewed face to face with tablets between August 1 and 9. The poll's results are not an election result forecast, but a snapshot as of early August, the poll agency noted. 

If elections were held in early August, the results would likely be the following: GERB - UDF would get 25.2% of the vote, Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) - 15.2%, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) - 14.5%, Vazrazhdane - 14.2%. At this stage it is difficult to determine who would take second, third or fourth place, Gallup International Balkan said. The experts add that the ambiguity of the turnout of the different political formations and the disintegration processes further complicate the picture and show some overall wavering in MRF's usual electorate.

A polling experiment with a direct question about a choice between Ahmed Dogan's and Delyan Peevski's political rift within the MRF yielded almost unanimous support for Ahmed Dogan, Gallup International Balkan noted. They pointed out that the election process, however, as a rule is also subject to pragmatic factors or hidden votes, which are difficult to grasp in poll data.

The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) would get 7.3% of the vote and it is not clear whether and how the processes of internal contradictions and external consolidation will affect them, the analysts said. A showcard experiment shows that a new consolidation does not significantly affect potential results. There Is Such a People (TISP) at this point in time would get 6.2%. According to Gallup International Balkan, in a relatively comfortable position to hit the bar of 4% to enter Parliament are Velichie with 3.6%, which suffered a notable decline, Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) with 3.4%, which in turn appeared to gain ground. It is not possible to say as of August which formation is performing better, and it is difficult to calculate the split in the circles of Velichie, the experts said, adding that a direct question showed that the potential level of support around Ivelin Mihaylov was higher than that of Nikolay Markov.