site.bta Political Forces Are Gearing for Heated Election Battle, Tense Post-election Clash - Analysts

ESD 16:25:30 01-09-2014
DD1625ES.114
114 POLITICS - INSTITUTE - POLITICAL ANALYSIS

Political Forces Are Gearing for
Heated Election Battle, Tense Post-election Clash -
Analysts


Sofia, September 1 (BTA) - The political forces in Bulgaria are
preparing for both a heated pre-election battle and for a tense
post-election collision which can continue indefinitely, one of
the conclusions of an analysis of politics in August of the Ivan
Hadjiiski Institute for Social Values and Structures says. The
analysis was published Monday.

According to the experts, one of the first things the next
Parliament will have to do is to discuss and pass the budget for
2015 which requires a parliamentary majority. If GERB does not
approach 121 MP seats it will be difficult to form a majority
and that will be delayed considerably, mostly because the
parties will have to motivate their agreement to form coalitions
before the public. There is a danger that the political crisis
may not be resolved by the October 5 snap parliamentary
elections, but may continue, with all possible negative
consequences for Bulgaria's policy, financial stability and
institutional balance, the experts say.

The analysts have studied the election campaign intrigue from
three aspects. First, will the thesis that the main question is
whether GERB will win enough votes to govern alone or it will
have to form a coalition. The very question rejects the
possibility of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and reduces
the circle of possibilities to GERB and the smaller parties.

Second, will the time-honoured formula of a "clash of the
giants" (GERB-BSP) apply? One in which the Movement for Rights
and Freedoms recedes to the background and blends into the
background. In this case there will be a confrontation of
opposite interpretations of what status quo is.

A third variant is drawing a line dividing status quo and change
which would present GERB and BSP as the two sides of the same
coin and which will propel the small formation vote forward.

GERB's PR benefits from both the first and the second paradigm
but loses from the third. The BSP benefits from the second
alone, but it will no longer have the advantages of an
opposition party as it did in 2009-2013.

The small formations stand more chances in the first and most
chances in the third variant, while for the MRF all variants are
petty details as Lyutvi Mestan's team will work its own turf,
the analysis says.

The document also states that the increasingly complicated
international situation requires alertness and caution on the
part of the Bulgarian state./SN/BR