site.btaIndustrial Capital Association: No Compensation for Non-Household Power Users under New Government Scheme

The Bulgarian Industrial Capital Association (BICA) said on Saturday that non-household electricity consumers will effectively not receive compensation under the Council of Ministers’ scheme for offsetting electricity costs between July 1, 2025, and June 30, 2026.

In a position paper to the Energy Minister on a draft Decree laying down the conditions and procedure for temporary relief for energy-intensive users, BICA notes the programme has not been publicly discussed, continues previous schemes adopted after sharp price swings, and applies to all non-household customers, including transmission and distribution grid operators purchasing electricity for technological losses. The compensation triggers only if the six-month volume-weighted average baseload price in IBEX’s Day-Ahead segment exceeds BGN 240/MWh (EUR 122.71/MWh); the indicative budget is up to BGN 20 million.

Based on recent IBEX baseload monthly averages — BGN 197.80 (July), 148.31 (August), and 183.37 (September) — BICA’s modelling forecasts prices below BGN 206/MWh for July–December 2025 and below BGN 200/MWh for January–June 2026, indicating that compensation would not be triggered. If six-month reference periods are maintained, BICA recommends setting the threshold below BGN 200/MWh. With a threshold of BGN 200/MWh, estimated support would be approximately BGN 5.83/MWh, totaling under BGN 44 million for around 7.47 TWh, but payments would occur in February 2026, after the peak consumption months.

A monthly assessment is preferable: with a threshold of 240 per month, support would be approximately BGN 18 million for November–December 2025 and less than BGN 29 million for January–February 2026. Alternatively, covering 50% of consumption at a monthly reference of 220 would cost about BGN 36 million for November–December 2025 and under BGN 42 million through June 2026. BICA considers both options as balancing stakeholder interests and notes that South-East Europe, including Bulgaria, continues to experience power prices up to 50% higher than those in Central and Western Europe in some months.