site.btaBulgarian Researchers Outline Three Possible Scenarios for Maritza East Region Development By 2040

Three possible scenarios for demographic and socio-economic development of the Maritsa East Region by 2040 are outlined in an analysis by a team of researchers from the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and Sofia University. They were presented at a press conference at the National Press Club of BTA by Georgi Bardarov, who is among the authors of the study, commissioned by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation. 

"The first scenario we have outlined is of an accelerated energy transition with active and adequate support from the central and local government", Bardarov pointed out. He explained that an accelerated transition means closing down at least half of the capacities by the end of 2026 and a complete exit from coal power by 2035 at the latest.

The second scenario is of an accelerated energy transition without adequate public support, and the third scenario is of a delayed energy transition, with coal power operations in Bulgaria being maintained until their final closure in 2038 or 2040. According to researchers, the third scenario will require a derogation from the European Commission for emissions from the Bulgarian coal power sector, and the continued subsidy of both state-owned and smaller private Coal Power plants will increasingly burden the public budget. The analysis points out that this will ultimately lead to a significant increase in the price of electricity in the country and frustrate reforms to boost innovation.

The first scenario is the most adequate and will lead to a painful at the moment but faster transformation of the region and a lower price to be paid by the people, said Georgi Bardarov. People in the region are very scared, but any delay will only aggravate the situation and the cost will be much higher, he said. Bardarov admitted that a mixing of these scenarios is a possibility.

In-depth interviews were conducted with the municipal authorities in Stara Zagora, Radnevo, Galabovo and Nova Zagora. Bardarov noted that first among the conclusions from these interviews was the complete lack of clarity about the future of the region and its people. He pointed out that there is a misunderstanding of the importance of the green transition and a distrust in the so-called just transition. He also noted the absence of communication of the state authorities with the local authorities and the people in the region. Broken communication causes chaos and fear in the population, which are reflected in increasing emigration attitudes, the analysis states.

The press conference also featured a Gallup International Balkan survey, conducted from October 29 to November 6, 2022 among more than 800 adults and representative of the country. According to it, a total of 56% of respondents would like to keep coal plants longer, 21% believe they should be closed and 23% could not answer. Parvan Simeonov from Gallup International Balkan commented that there is a high level of distrust towards the government, which is also projected towards Brussels. He said that there are instincts related to preserving health and the environment, but the social factor dominates. "The refrigerator somewhat beats the thermometer," Simeonov noted.