site.btaMedia Review: January 31

No single topic dominates Friday's news media. The national TV channels’ morning shows and Bulgarian National Radio focused on the draft state budget for 2025, presenting the opinions of experts on the matter. 

ECONOMY

On Bulgarian National Television, Atanas Karatsev, chief economist of the Podkrepa Confederation of Labour, commented that the parliamentary debate on the 2025 budget shows two theses: that all is right with the budget and there is no significant deficit, and that there is a huge deficit caused by the Government’s predecessors. The truth lies somewhere in between, Karatsev believes. According to him, the GDP growth will bring about BGN 6 billion additional revenue to the Exchequer; looking at how wonderful the year has been with about a 10% increase in some basic goods and services, it will probably help the revenue a lot, especially from VAT. From there onward, the power holders should calculate everything very carefully, but the trade unions lack enough information about how that will happen, Karatsev commented. Bulgarian Industrial Capital Association head Vassil Velev agreed that the revenue will be around BGN 6 billion. The cost estimates, which are based on decisions already taken by Parliament under pressure from the trade unions, are plus BGN 18 billion. That is, the difference is a new BGN 12 billion deficit to the existing BGN 6 billion deficit, resulting in the BGN 18 billion deficit announced by the Finance Minister. Those calculations are correct, Velev underscored. In his words, it is time to hit the breaks and make a turn, because “we are heading at a faster pace towards the abyss.”

On Bulgarian National Radio, economist and former deputy economy minister Nikola Yankov commented that the real reason for the Government's decision to postpone the request to the European Commission for an extraordinary assessment report on the country's readiness for the euro area, is that the ruling coalition intends to submit to Parliament a budget with a deficit higher than 3%. Yankov, who currently heads the economic team of Blue Bulgaria, called that decision a "short-sighted policy" to sacrifice a strategic process for the country for the sake of buying "political calm for a few months." "We have a historic chance. Maybe this window will close this year. The political landscape of Europe is changing. Populist parties are coming to power whose ideology is rather anti-European and not friendly to countries like Bulgaria. (...) This postponement could be the last, in the bad sense of the word." Bulgaria meets the eurozone membership criteria, he underscored, and recalled that Croatia was allowed in the euro area despite being in violation of two criteria. The economist believes that if Bulgaria joins the eurozone, "we will permanently anchor ourselves geopolitically in the orbit of Western democracies", which will save the country "from the clutches of a re-sovietisation". "Economically, we will get rich immediately. Asset valuations will soar. All Bulgarian companies, properties, and major assets will increase in value many times over. This is the real way for Bulgarians to get rich immediately," he argued.

On bTV's morning show, former deputy prime minister in charge of EU funds Atanas Pekanov commented that whether Bulgaria will join the eurozone in 2026 depends on the State’s efforts, particularly on the budget to be adopted by the National Assembly. The spending should be curbed and stable public finances should be demonstrated, he argued. Bulgaria can request an assessment report from the European Commission by mid-March, he added. Pekanov also talked about the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, noting that Bulgaria is failing but is not the only Member State in such a situation. Many EU countries are struggling with the implementation of the set reforms; this money-for-reform mechanism has not worked well enough. The good news is that the European Commission is likely to reallocate unused funds under the Recovery and Resilience Facility and they will be available beyond 2026, Pekanov explained. "This is the reality, and other countries are struggling. In Belgium there was a protest against the pension reform recently. Not only in our country does the Commission want unrealistic things. There are countries that have received zero payments, or one payment," Pekanov said.

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Capital’s weekly issue is dedicated to the Bulgarian capital market, with the headline “Stock Exchange, Wake Up”. One of the articles on the topic reads that one of the most common ways to measure the development of a capital market is the stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio, which in Bulgaria is below 9%, compared to over 200% in the US. The assets of each of the three biggest banks in Bulgaria are around two-fold more than the market value of the local public companies. The annual turnover from the deals on the Bulgarian Stock Exchange is below BGN 1 billion, which is several-fold less than the turnover in one of the big food store chains in the country and more or less the same as the weekly trade in Tesla’s assets alone. All of that is a sign that the Bulgarian Stock Exchange, though showing signs of development in the last years, remains quite a negligible corner on the world markets, the article reads. Data show that the biggest company in terms of market capitalization in Bulgaria is the TchaikaPharma pharmaceutical company, evaluated at over BGN 1.64 billion. Next in the top three are the Shelly Group technological company and the Speedy delivery company. Another article on the topic reads that the capital market in Bulgaria remains neglected by the State, when a clear strategy could help it not only keep but also attract investments. Among the ways to achieve that are privatization of State packages and targeted government securities. A third article looks at the example of the Greek and Romanian stock exchanges, whose indexes have greater profitability than the Bulgarian’s Sofix.

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Trud writes on its front page that retailers are preparing a price blow to consumers in the coming months. A survey by the National Statistical Institute among company managers in retail trade shows a sharp increase this month in the share of those who expect a rise in prices, nearly 25% of the survey's respondents. The business climate in the retail sector deteriorated in January, the survey also shows. The reasons lie in retailers' more reserved expectations about the state of the firms over the next six months. At the same time, their forecasts for the volume of sales and orders to suppliers over the next three months are improving. Clearly, retailers expect an increase in turnover, but also higher costs, the article reads. The uncertain economic environment, industry competition, and insufficient demand remain the main constraints for retailers.

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24 Chasa’s front-page articles presents the results of a survey on life expectancy commissioned by the European Commission, according to which Bulgarians live by 5 years less than the other EU citizens on average. Women live longer than men in this country, to 78.1 years on average, compared to 72.2 years for men.

Telegraph writes on its front page that due to the low pensions, there are 180,000 working pensioners in Bulgaria.

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Duma’s front-page story reads that the launch of Lot 1 of the Hemus Motorway is postponed yet again. The section of 15.4 km was supposed to be ready at the start of 2025 but will instead be unveiled in July, it transpires from the words of the Regional Development and Public Works Minister. The completion of Lot 1 was postponed once already, back in October 2024. This lot, along with the next two, were indexed with BGN 38 million, the daily recalls.

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Nova TV’s morning show presents two foreign owners of property in Bulgaria who believe they are victims of a criminal scheme. In both cases, a Bulgarian company claims the foreigners own it money for broker services and it thus proceeds to sell their property in the country without their knowledge using invoices as evidence before the court. The foreigners, both from the UK, claim the invoices are fake. The foreigners did not know about the court hearings, because the notices were left in their mail boxes in Bulgaria, and they live in the UK. One learned that his house in Bulgaria had been sold from his neighbours. A Bulgarian told Nova TV that he personally sold a property to Russian nationals, only to later learn he owned money to the company in question for broker services. Approached for comment, company owner Petar Kralev said this is a matter of business relations, therefore he cannot comment on them. The lawyer of one of the affected foreigners, Kremena Taneva, told Nova TV that this is document fraud, and she has referred it to the prosecution service. The scheme’s victims are Greek, Belgian, British, German, and Russian nationals, she said.

POLITICS

Trud has an interview with Minister of Education and Science Krasimir Valchev, his first since taking office. He talks about planned changes and reforms in the education system. The first change will be in the school curricula, and will be presented as a concept next week; the goal is to make a shift from learning by heart and repeating what is in the textbook to functionality and knowledge. The concept will be discussed for half a year; during that time, the Ministry will form working groups to prepare the new curricula, which will feature more exercises than additional knowledge and will give teachers greater freedom when planning the lessons. Teaching values and attitudes will also be part of the new curricula, because the education system should aim to make children Bulgarians, good people, and individuals; there could be classes in virtues and religions, for example, Valchev says.

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24 Chasa has an interview with Prof. Ana Kocheva of the Bulgarian Language Institute with the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, who comments on the Serbian claims on the alleged existence of a Shopi nation and a Shopi language. She calls that thesis a prematurely born child and believes it is aimed at Bulgarians in Northwestern Bulgaria joining other peoples. She recalls that such a thesis is not new: it first appeared as early as in the 19th century along with the birth of the idea about Macedonism. The Shopi are an ethnographic group, she underscored. What is dangerous in the current speculations about a Shopi nation is that they concern Bulgarian territories like the Breznik, Tran, and Radomir areas as well as Serbian territories inhabited by a Bulgarian national minority officially recognized by the Serbian authorities. Those people are peaceful and loyal citizens of Serbia but they are neglected economically to force them to leave the area, perhaps as part of a modern ethnic cleansing, the scholar argues. [Prof. Kocheva was among the Bulgarian scholars who on January 28 officially debunked what they called Serbian "manipulations" about the existence of a separate Shopi language. They also refuted Serbian media claims challenging the national identity of Bulgarians in the Western Outlands, an area encompassing Bosilegrad and Tsaribrod regions, which the 1919 Treaty of Neuilly forced Bulgaria to cede to the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes.]

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Telegraph has an interview with freelance journalist Ruslan Trad, an expert on the Middle East and North Africa, who says that the risk of a civil war in Syria remains.