site.btaMedia Review: December 31

YEAR-END ANALYSES & FORECASTS

"Radev vs Peevski: The Grand Battle of 2025," caps an overview published on SegaBG.com. The website says that in 2024 Bulgarian President Rumen Radev and Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) leader Delyan Peevski emerged from the chaos to become the main players in the domestic political arena. Although Peevski is sanctioned for corruption under the US Global Magnitsky Act, he became the sole leader of the MRF. Virtually all other political actors are positioned according to how they view Peevski and his actions, the story goes. On the opposite pole of the Bulgarian political world, President Radev reinforced his position, and most political forces stopped resisting him. Radev's only open war is against Peevski. This is likely to be the central political conflict in 2025, the author Lyudmil Iliev says.

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"A Year of Time Vacuum for Skopje and Sofia," caps an analysis in Trud, written by journalist Kostadin Filipov. He says that Bulgaria's relations and disputes with North Macedonia have not budged an inch in 2024. Filipov says it is an illusion to think that North Macedonia's President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova will implement some kind of "soft diplomacy" unlike Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski, that she "will focus on promoting cultural cooperation [with Bulgaria] as an additional avenue for the development of relations. Or that she will compliment her counterpart Rumen Radev for being the only Bulgarian politician to live up to his position."

The author says Siljanovska-Davkova took the liberty of criticizing the European Commission and other EU institutions just six months into her term, having accomplished practically nothing herself. This is a manifestation of a deficit of democracy on the political scene by the Vardar River, only this time it is targeted at the EU, the journalist says. Furthermore, Siljanovska-Davkova is playing on the sentiment against any amendments to the Constitution, which was fuelled by the 2018 Prespa Agreement reached with Greece, under which the then Republic of Macedonia was renamed Republic of North Macedonia. This sentiment has been harnessed to prevent the addition of Bulgarians to the North Macedonia Constitution as a guarantee that their rights will be respected, a condition which is part of the framework for Skopje's accession talks with the EU.

Bulgaria's relations with North Macedonia have made no progress in 2024, the analysis goes. The change of government in Skopje brought bilateral ties to a standstill. The situation has been compounded by Bulgaria's unintelligent approach. The outgoing year has raised questions which remain unanswered. One of these questions is, how come that the VMRO-DPMNE, which in the early years of Macedonia's independence from Yugoslavia was labelled as a "pro-Bulgarian party," now stands out as the most anti-Bulgarian party by the Vardar River? North Macedonia citizens who are now celebrating the coming of the new year abroad have chosen such travel destinations as Vienna, Budapest, Athens and Belgrade and marketplaces in Italy and Germany. Indirectly, this says something about the geopolitical orientation of Bulgaria's southwestern neighbour, Filipov comments.

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In a video message covered by Trud and other news outlets, United States Ambassador to Bulgaria Kenneth Merten speaks about the wonderful moments and the success stories of Bulgaria shared with the United States in 2024. The diplomat talks about how he got to know the art scene of the city of Varna, how he received a traditional bread-and-salt welcome in the village of Staro Zhelezare, how he experienced the magic of the Rose Festival in Kazanlak, and how he joined the Bulgarians in applauding their weightlifter Karlos Nasar. Ambassador Merten thanks the Bulgarian people for an unforgettable year and the sustainable partnership with the US.

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The prices of bread, coffee, cigarettes, alcohol, natural gas, water, and electricity for household consumers will certainly rise in 2025, but can this cause inflation to skyrocket? – a signed article in 24 Chasa says. "Inflation will likely accelerate a little, we are watching it closely because of our eurozone bid," economist Petar Ganev commented for the daily. Discussing inflation in 2024, Ganev said he expects that after the official data for December are published in the middle of January, it will become clear that inflation in 2024 was under 3%, perhaps as low as 2.6% or 2.5%, which would be close to the eurozone entry requirement. (The rule is that an eurozone applicant country must have a rate of inflation, observed over a period of one year before the examination, that does not exceed by more than 1.5 percentage points that of the three best-performing member states in terms of price stability.) Whether inflation will leave Bulgaria out of the eurozone will depend on which countries are excluded from the formula, Ganev said. He went on to predict that EU market demand for Bulgarian goods will grow. He sees signs that the recession will not last beyond 2024.

ECONOMY

With Bulgaria and Romania set to become full members of the Schengen free travel zone on January 1, MediaPool.bg says that "the big plus for tourism is southwards." This literally means more trips by Bulgarians to neighbouring Greece and definitely more trips by Romanians southwards to the Bulgarian Black Sea coast or to the Greek coast. Observers expect a boom in independent tourism and a rise in holiday trips and excursions by bus. The predictions are based on a poll which the website conducted among leading tourism organizations and entrepreneurs.

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Julia Simpson, President and CEO of the World Travel and Tourism Council, tells 24 Chasa that Bulgaria travel has not yet risen back to pre-pandemic levels. Simpson says that if she were in the Bulgarian government, she would ask herself, what can my nation offer that tourists would want, who should it be shown to, and what a long-term tourism marketing plan should look like. She says she is impressed by Bulgaria's beauty, but notes that the country needs long-term marketing.

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Massive power outages such as those of the last few days have been a problem for years, Institute for Market Economics chief economist Kaloyan Staikov said on the morning talk show of BNT1, the main channel of Bulgarian National Television. Staikov noted the existence of private property issues affecting forest clearings and tree trimming along power lines, which is partly a responsibility of private property owners. "Sadly, the problem remains unresolved and resurfaces every time something like that happens," he said. He blamed the situation on "many different institutions along the chain and general inaction in recent years." Commenting on the authorities' response to the latest spate of snow-induced power failures, Staikov said: "What we have seen from the government and the president over the last week is more of populism than a desire to help."

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It is shockingly hard to get a private garage or a parking slot in Sofia, where such an acquisition can cost almost as much as an apartment, 24 Chasa says in its main story. You can buy a garage in the city centre for between EUR 45,000 and EUR 70,000, depending on the level from the ground surface. The closer to the street, the costlier. Housing in the same area can be bought for EUR 3,000 per square metre. In other words, a tiny apartment with a floor area of 23 sq m would cost about as much as a private garage in a high-end location, the daily estimates. It is unprofitable for a private investor to put money in a multilevel car park in Sofia. The cost of construction would be commensurate with that for a residential building, but the proceeds would be lower. There are ways to successfully address the parking problem in Sofia, but City Hall should be far more active in this regard, the article says.

FATAL ACCIDENT

Tensions are mounting in the southwestern town of Kyustendil after an 18-year-old girl was killed in a road accident when the car she was travelling in ran into horses that had apparently strayed from a farm, MediaPool.bg reports. The owner of the horses was released after spending 24 hours in police custody. On Monday, people held a protest at the scene of the tragedy for the third day in a row. A motorized parade of protest is planned, the website says.