site.btaMedia Review: September 26

OCT. 27 ELECTIONS

All media outlets cover Alpha Research’s poll data released on Thursday. Some 30-31% of Bulgarians eligible to vote have declared readiness to vote in the snap parliamentary elections on October 27, seven parties and coalitions have the potential to be part of the next parliament, it show. The poll found that 53.8% of Bulgarians do not expect the formation of a regular government after the coming October 27 elections. At the start of the election campaign data show GERB-UDF to receive the most support of 23.9%, followed by Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) with 14.4%, Vazrazhdane with 14.2%, the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (ARF) coalition with 7.9%, the BSP - United Left coalition with 6.3%, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) - New Beginning coalition with 6.1% and the There Is Such a People (TISP) party with 5.4%. Just over 61% of respondents described the current situation as "extremely worrying, with destabilization and dysfunctional institutions." The opinion was dominant across all social and electoral groups, with only some residents of big cities and GERB supporters being slightly less critical. Against this background, 53.8% of Bulgarians no longer expect a government to be formed after the October 27 elections. Alpha Research registered a sharp reversal in attitudes compared to the previous two elections, when the majority of people still expected the formation of a regular cabinet.

The campaign is at its very beginning, but given the persistence of such attitudes, there is very little likelihood that parties will attract votes from outside their hard cores and thereby boost turnout significantly, the agency noted.

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24 Chasa features an interview with former finance minister and deputy prime minister Simeon Dyankov on the political landscape in the country. He was adamant that the upcoming elections will not lead to the formation of a regular government "because meaningful coalitions are impossible". Dyankov argued that GERB, CC-DB and MRF do not want to enter into a coalition with each other, describing this as the only option for a coalition in which all participants are fighting for similar goals. Under the GERB, CC-DB and BSP option, the goal of joining the eurozone is dropped and cooperation with Ukraine becomes more difficult. The GERB, MRF, BSP and TISP option again drops the eurozone entry objective and involves more difficult negotiations between the participants.

On Nova Television's morning show, PR expert Nidal Algafari and journalist Petko Georgiev discussed the political crisis in Bulgaria and whether the October 27 elections have the potential to resolve it "There will be a tally of bought and controlled votes in this election. There is a particular formation that has nothing else to rely on. All other vote buyers will be curbed and crushed. This is the so-called MRF - New Beginning of Delyan Peevski. His personal rating is very low," Georgiev pointed out. Algafari said forming a regular government would be almost impossible, but Georgiev underlined that the prospect of going to another election in March was not attractive for the parties and compromises could be made.

In an interview on the Bulgarian National Radio, political scientist Hristo Panchurov said that the parties' mobilization resource is withering. "The MRF has never functioned as a political party, but rather as a corporation. MRF voters have always been part of a special circle  - based on the traditional vote, but also on local influence," Panchurov pointed out. "For the first time, we will clearly see not only the real influence MRF’s two leaders, but also the myths around how organized voting works in this party." The political scientist argued that the public does not have the mindset for radical change and would be willing to accept strange coalitions. "The vote for Vazrazhdane is predictable. They are good at having a relatively clear line - they criticize the whole political system without offering solutions," he said.

Telegraph has an interview with political scientist Milena Stefanova. She said that while the most realistic outcome will see Bulgaria going to another election in the spring, the contradictions between GERB and CC-DB were larger when they formed a rotation cabinet. However, they would need a third party to form a coalition with, as their support levels would not change, Stefanova argued.

24 Chasa features an analysis by Vesela Bacheva, who argues that voters are looking for MPs without suits who do not avoid small towns. The article recalls that Velichie and Morality, Unity, Honour's (MECh) strong and unexpected results in the previous election were attributed to low turnout, but also notes their ability to communicate with citizens on social media and face-to-face. "From the beginning of the month, Trend Research Centre's political analyst Dimitar Ganev suggested a return of Velichie to parliament and a debut for MECh with the caveat that how they conduct their election campaigns will be key. Both parties seem prepared for it. MECh was one of the first formations to register their candidate lists, and Velichie also beat most parliamentary forces to it,” Bacheva writes.

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Speaking on bTV's morning show, GERB-UDF MP Rosen Zhelyazkov said that the coalition has prepared a governance programme. "Regular government means implementing policies and taking responsibility. A regular government means that the State will not be constantly dealing with elections, but will deal with the people's problems," he insisted, adding that to make all this happen the GERB-UDF is looking for partners.

On Nova Television's morning show, GERB Deputy Chair Tomislav Donchev denied that the party is dependent on one of MRF's two chairpersons Delyan Peevski. Education is the portfolio on which the GERB-UDF will focus its efforts in the next cabinet, he added.

On Bulgarian National Television's morning show, CC-DB co-leader Atanas Atanassov said that the coalition has a plan on how to form a regular government after the elections.

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On bTV’s morning show, former State Intelligence Agency director Dimo Gyaurov commented on Interior Ministry’s role in the organization of the elections and former minister Kalin Stoyanov’s decision to join the candidate list of MRF – New Beginning. He described Stoyanov’s move to join Peevski’s coalition after being criticized of serving the latter’s interest while heading the Ministry as “not very smart”. "The main task of the Ministry of Interior is to prevent distortion of the election result - to fight vote buying. Kalin Stoyanov's claims that the Interior Ministry had almost no relation to the elections were absolutely false. On the contrary - there is no one to fight vote-buying except the Interior Ministry," Gyaurov stressed.

LEBANON

On Nova Television's morning show, journalist Georgi Milkov said that all major diplomacies around the world are now trying to prevent a full-scale war in Lebanon. "New York is the arena of high diplomacy every year at this time. Efforts are concentrated there. The Lebanese Prime Minister and that of Israel are there," he pointed out and added that the US diplomats are trying to deter Israel from going into Lebanon by land. "That would cause big problems for the Israeli army."

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Trud features an interview with Research Center of Extremism and Terorism (RCET) Head Petar Marinov on the Bulgarian connection to the topic. In an article by The New York Times, the country was named as part of a network of exploitative pagers used for Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The National Security Agency was adamant that no pagers like those used in the attacks were imported, exported or manufactured in the country. “The services are right that there are no imports and exports - this is a classic money laundering scheme, in this case hiding in some way the source of the supplier. Of course, these devices have hardly physically passed through Hungary or Bulgaria, but there must be a chain of companies. The specificity here is that this is difficult to explain to the normal citizen - there the reactions are primary, emotional, an attitude towards Bulgaria is created,” Marinov said.

ECONOMY

In an Interview with the Bulgarian National Radio, the chair of Podkrepa Confederation of Labour’s Maritsa Iztok Mines trade union, Mario Ninov, said that national protests can be expected after MPs approved a postponement of energy market liberalization, but only for one year.

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Trud writes that the 2025 State Budget will include larger pension increase than the initial projections and the minimum pension in the country will become BGN 631.