Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations, Jim Skea, who is visiting Sofia for the 61st Plenary Session of the IPCC, discussed climate change, global warming, the factors contributing to it and how it can be reduced, in an interview for BTA here on Friday. Sofia is hosting the forum between July 27 and August 2.
Climate change and extreme weather
When asked about a report issued by the Copernicus Programme, which suggests that 2024 may be the hottest on record, even before the beginning of systematic temperature measurements, Skea said that "We are certainly not living in normal times." While the obvious impacts, such as extreme heat and wildfires, have been projected by scientists and assessed by the IPCC, these events seem to be occurring more frequently than anticipated, with the last 12 months have been particularly unusual. Scientists know the contributing factors, a main one being human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, however, there is ongoing research to disentangle the different factors explaining these phenomena. The scientific community knows that another factor contributing to the planet getting warmer is the El Niño-La Niña cycle, which occurs every few years, affecting global temperatures. The Earth is currently in a period where temperatures are expected to be above the average trend. The challenge is identifying which factors are dominant.
Global warming denial
Skea was adamant: the IPCC, after reviewing all the literature, has concluded that it is unequivocal that human beings are the primary cause of the climate change today. This conclusion is supported by several lines of evidence: observations, climate modelling (what is happening is consistent with the predictive models), and comparisons with prehistoric climate data, when carbon dioxide concentrations were very different. All evidence points in the same direction—human activity is the main driver behind the unprecedented rate of warming.
Global Warming of 1.5C
Skea was part of the IPCC team that worked on the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C (SR15). When the report was released, I stated that limiting warming to 1.5C was possible within the laws of chemistry and physics, provided that governments took immediate actions to reduce emissions substantially. Unfortunately, in the five years since that report, emissions have not decreased but have remained roughly the same. As a result, the chances of limiting warming to 1.5C are diminishing. It is likely that the average temperatures will exceed this threshold within the next decade if only temporarily. However, it is still possible to bring temperatures back down below the 1.5-degree level by the end of the 21st century.
Prospects of living in Europe in the context of global warming
The head of the IPCC is confident that while living in Europe and the Balkans in particular may become more dangerous and uncomfortable due to the rising temperatures in the next 5 to 10 years, "Life will not stop in Europe because of warming." He warned that more extreme weather events, including wildfires, floods and droughts, can become more common, unless emissions are curbed. Skea added that the challenge with climate change is not the averages that affect people, but the extremes—too hot, too cold, too wet, or too dry. "These are the things that will challenge people, and these circumstances will come back to haunt us," the expert said.
IPCC influencing policymaking
Interviewee: The IPCC is a United Nations body that provides scientific advice on climate change and possible actions. It is a place where science meets policy. Their reports are reviewed and approved by consensus among all participating governments. This consensus ensures that the findings are both scientifically accurate and politically supported, making IPCC reports highly influential in international climate negotiations. When IPCC reports, governments listen, and it affects the negotiations. This body has influenced the very drafting of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.
Goals and expectations for the 61st IPCC meeting
There are several key tasks, including producing a special report on climate change and cities. There is a plan to work on a methodology report for estimating emissions of short-lived climate forcers, such as ammonia and sulphur dioxide. The IPCC will also address the timeline for their reports throughout the 2020s.
Resistance to the Green Deal in Bulgaria
During a discussion of the Green Deal in Bulgaria in Bulgaria and the resistance it meets from some social strata, Skea spoke about his job before heading the IPCC. He used to lead a Just Transition Commission in Scotland, which focused on transitioning to a net-zero economy while considering social and economic consequences. This role led him to the conclusion that it is crucial to engage with and involve all stakeholders, not just politicians. The process must be consultative to ensure social acceptance.
Prospects for Bulgarian scientists joining the IPCC in the future
The IPCC values regional representation, which is why Skea was glad that 20 Bulgarian scientists have been nominated for the next set of reports to be produced by the organization. While getting selected after the nomination is a competitive process, he did praise the Bulgarian focal points for doing their job in putting forward a significant number of nominations.
/NZ/
news.modal.text
