Estonia's Ruling Coalition Has Lost EU Elections, with Exception of Social Democrats - European Studies Expert Says

With the exception of the social democrats, the ruling coalition in Estonia has lost in the European elections, BTA learned from Stefano Braghiroli, Associate Professor of European Studies and Programme Director for European Union - Russia Studies at the University of Tartu’s Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies. He was approached to comment on the results of the June 9 elections in Estonia.

Braghiroli said that support for Prime Minister Kaja Kallas’s party, the Estonian Reform Party, has declined, but the biggest loser has been Estonia 200, a liberal party that was part of the ruling coalition. “It got to a bit above 2%, which is extremely low,” Braghiroli said.

“In general, the comparison should be made with the past European Parliament elections. But in the context of Estonia 200, it makes more sense to have the comparison with the last national elections when the party was a bit below 10%, which is a big decrease,” he noted.

Braghiroli said that voter turnout, just under 40%, has been consistent with previous elections. He added that it “is not extremely high but it is pretty much in line with the expectations for the region and Estonia”.

Among the issues that took center stage in the European elections in Estonia, he listed the war in Ukraine, the country’s economy, migration, and the European Green Deal.

He said that what has been observed in the European context but not so much in Estonia is the rise of the far right. Braghiroli noted that the far-right Conservative People’s Party of Estonia garners support, but there is not a huge surge as in Germany, France, or Italy.

Braghiroli stressed that the mainstream conservatives take votes from the far right, but at the end of the day, the far right will still have at least one representative in the European Parliament, while the conservatives will have two MEPs.

He also noted that green policies will probably be reconsidered, adding that there is no relevant green party in Estonia. Braghiroli believes that there is a general feeling among the public that green policies have gone too far, and this is something that voters have tried to indicate.

As to macrotrends, he said that the degree of Russia's interference matters in Estonia, but it is not comparable with Western Europe or southern European countries. Braghiroli added that Russia is trying to influence voting trends in Estonia, but it mainly targets the Russian population in the country.