site.btaUPDATED Mediana Poll: Over 400,000 Potential Voters Are Still Undecided

According to the data from a survey conducted by the Mediana polling agency, over 400,000 potential voters are still undecided on whether or not they will vote or for whom just a week before the two-in-one elections for European and for Bulgarian Parliament on June 9. 

The poll was conducted in the period May 25 - June 1, 2024, among 990 adults through a direct standardized interview and is representative of the adult population of the country. The survey is a research project of the Mediana Agency and was implemented with own funds.

Given the expected low voter turnout (between 2.4 - 2.7 million voters at the polls), 400,000 is a huge mass of undecided voters that could drastically change the results if they "swing" one way or the other. So far, however, there is no such "swinging" towards any of the main political formations. It can be said that the majority of these voters are looking for an alternative but are not finding it in the "political market", the agency noted. 

The data showed that as of now GERB is in first position (28.6%), increasing its distance from the second place Vazrazhdane (14.9%). The battle for second place, however, will be contested, according to the data. The difference between second, third and fourth is within 2% as both the Movement for Rights and Freedoms - MRF (13.5%) and Vazrazhdane have, hidden from polls, "trump cards". For the MRF these are the expats in Turkiye and the party's traditional mechanisms of control and activation of its voters. Vazrazhdane has a significant hidden protest potential, which is not even taken into account in post-electoral surveys (exit polls), according to Mediana. 

Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) with 12.9% keep their chances for the second/third place, but so far the data show that the erosion of their credibility continues. BSP for Bulgaria with 8.6% and There is Such a People (TISP) with 6.3% can also be sure of their presence in the next parliament, with Slavi Trifonov's party likely to be able to appoint a MEP, the agency said. 

According to the poll, three more formations maintain good chances of entering Bulgaria's Parliament - Blue Bulgaria (3.4%), "Left" (3.2%) and "Solidarity Bulgaria" (3%). All three formations improved their positions compared to two weeks earlier, but they are still below the 4% barrier and the days until the elections will be crucial for them. Of the other parties, a noticeable presence is observed in Bulgarian Rise, Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) Party and VMRO, the data indicate. 

This is not a forecast, but a snapshot of public and political attitudes in the country one week before the elections, the agency noted.  

Mediana believes that the upcoming European and parliamentary elections will be held in conditions of increased concern about the future of Europe and the world, and this is likely to have an impact on their results. Nearly half of people are convinced that there is a significant danger of a world war in the immediate future, and 44% also believe that Europe is not doing well (people's lives are getting worse). So far this has not developed into Euroscepticism (a desire to leave the EU), but pessimism is marked, the agency added.