site.btaUPDATED Moldova on Eve of Presidential Elections, EU Membership Referendum

On October 20, 2024, the Republic of Moldova will be holding presidential elections and a referendum on the country's accession to the European Union. The President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, who represents the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), currently has a significant lead in the election race, far ahead of any of her 10 opponents, a CBS-AXA poll showed.

Election forecast

The CBS-AXA polling agency gave Sandu 36.1% support. Her top two opponents, according to the poll, are former Moldovan prosecutor general Alexandru Stoianoglo backed by the traditionally pro-Russian Party of Socialists, with 10.1%, and Renato Usatii, a former mayor of the northern city of Balti, with 7.5%.

The first round of voting will take place on October 20. If none of the 11 candidates wins over 50% of the votes, there will be a runoff on November 3. 

EU membership referendum

In May 2024, Moldova's Parliament, where Sandu's ruling PAS party has a majority, scheduled a referendum - to be held in conjunction with the October 20 presidential elections - on whether the country should amend its Constitution to include the Moldovan citizens' wish for European Union membership.

In the CBS-AXA poll, 63% supported joining the EU. The results of the plebiscite will be considered valid if at least one third of the voters participate.

Moldova’s European aspirations 

For decades, Moldova has swung between pro-European and pro-Russian influences. However, in recent years, the EU and Chisinau have deepened relations. In June 2024, Brussels began the process of negotiating Ukraine's and Moldova's accession to the EU.

The pro-Western camp has been firmly in charge since Sandu won office in 2020 and her party won a majority in Parliament the following year. The Government supports closer integration with the West including membership in the EU by 2030. She strongly opposed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and has accused Russia of seeking her overthrow, which Moscow denies. 

Critics

The opposition has criticized the referendum as a stunt aimed at boosting Sandu's presidential campaign. Sandu’s main opponent, Stoianoglo, called the referendum “a very cynical move”. He said that “the EU integration should not be used for personal gain”, as quoted by Radio Chisinau.

Candidates who claim to be supporting EU membership, are in fact calling on voters either to boycott it or to vote against it, Reuters said.

Russian interference

The Moldovan police and Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office have dismantled a network created and financed from Russia by fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor to corrupt voters ahead of the presidential elections and constitutional referendum on October 20, Europa Libera Moldova reported on October 3.

Moldova’s General Police Inspectorate head Viorel Cernauteanu said that in September 2024, more than USD 15 million was illegally transferred from Russian banks to the accounts of more than 130,000 Moldovan citizens to bribe them to vote against the referendum. The money was transferred to leaders of territorial organizations, of political parties, activists, and party supporters.

According to Cernauteanu, quoted by Europa Libera Moldova, the phenomenon of financing and corruption with the goal of disrupting the electoral process is unprecedented for Moldova, which, in his words, is the target of "direct attacks coming from the Russian Federation".

Shor, who has openly offered to pay people to persuade others to vote against European integration, has said the real sum is more than USD 15 million, but that the funds are from his business, not Russia, and that it does not constitute bribery, Reuters reported. 

The Meta Corporation also found signs of deliberate disinformation on the eve of the elections in Moldova. Earlier in October, it deleted fake accounts that undermined the country's pro-Western policies. According to Meta, these fake accounts criticized the country's President Maia Sandu, pro-European politicians and called on Russian-speaking Moldovans to support pro-Russian parties in Moldova.

In June 2024, in a joint statement at the G7 summit in Italy, the US, UK and Canada accused Russia of conspiring to interfere in the presidential elections and Moldova's referendum on EU membership. According to the statement, quoted by Europa Libera Romania, pro-Moscow figures sought to "incite negative public attitudes" towards Sandu, Western governments and the prospect of Moldova's EU membership.

A make-or-break moment

A few days before the referendum, President Sandu said that her country is “at a crossroads”, and its citizens' duty is to defend democracy and decide the fate of Moldova, because there will be no second round of the referendum, Moldpres reported.

A double victory for the country’s pro-Western forces in the presidential election, as well as the referendum, would consolidate Moldova’s western trajectory and EU membership goal. A weaker-than-expected result could put the right-centrist PAS on a shaky footing at a parliamentary election next year, when its majority could be in jeopardy. A negative vote would be a blow to Sandu's political reputation but would not be binding, Reuters noted.