site.btaBulgaria's Eurozone Membership Will Accelerate Exports by 5.8% a Year, Allianz Trade Forecasts

Bulgaria's exports are expected to grow by 5.8% a year once the country joins the eurozone. Trade in goods could increase by 3.3% and trade in services, by up to 8.4%, reads an analysis by the Allianz Trade credit insurance company.

According to the company's forecast, a delay in the entry in the eurozone equals a missed increase worth USD 2.6 billion, given the data on exports in 2023, and losses for Bulgarian businesses from transaction costs, which will decrease after the transition to a single currency.

Bulgaria joining the euro area is also expected to shrink the tariff equivalents by minus 1.4% for goods and minus 3.1% for services.

Thus, the overall effect on Bulgaria's GDP from the eurozone membership would amount to an additional growth of 0.2% a year, the analysis reads. 

Now that Bulgaria is a full member of Schengen, the country's GDP is expected to grow by an additional 0.17% thanks to the lifting of the customs control, Allianz Trade forecasts. Also, crossing the borders with Greece and Romania will be faster by some 20 minutes on average. Bulgaria's exports are forecast to increase by 10.5% a year, with goods growing by 8.5% and services, by 12.5%. Were Bulgaria a full Schengen member in 2023, trade would have been bigger by at least USD 3.3 billion, the company notes.