site.btaFinance Ministry Expects 3% Budget Deficit in 2024

Based on preliminary data and estimates, the budget balance under the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) for 2024 is expected to be at a deficit of around BGN 6.1 billion (3% of the projected GDP), the Ministry of Finance said Thursday.

In an extremely tight budget environment, preliminary estimates suggest that Bulgaria's budgetary position is in line with the CFP estimates in the budget adopted at the end of 2023. The estimates foresee that the CFP deficit will show an improvement compared to the level of the indicator set in the annual estimates (deficit of BGN 6.2 billion). Tremendous efforts have been made both in terms of improving revenue collection and containing expenditure pressures, the release said.

The revenue, aids and endowments under the CFP for 2024 are expected to be around BGN 72 billion, which is 95.6% of the annual estimates. The underachievement of the revenue estimates under the CFP is mainly due to the receipt of lower than planned aid and donation receipts in the EU accounts (due to non-receipt of the second and third tranches of the Recovery and Resilience Plan). National budget revenue is close to the plan for the year, with the over-execution of tax revenue estimates largely offsetting the under-execution of non-tax revenue estimates.

The Finance Ministry's forecast currently projects the general government deficit for 2024 to remain within the Stability and Growth Pact's reference value of 3% of projected GDP.

Tax revenues under the CFP (including social contributions) amount to BGN 58.7 billion, representing a performance of 101.3% against the estimate for the year. Compared to 2023, the group's revenues increase in nominal terms by BGN 6.4 billion (12.2%).

Non-tax revenues amounted to around BGN 9.7 billion, remaining lower than planned in the estimates to the 2024 budget law, mainly due to lower receipts from the sale of non-financial assets (mainly in receipts from the sale of greenhouse gas emission allowances), lower-than-planned state and municipal taxes, and others. Revenues from aid and donations (mainly grants under EU programmes and funds) amount to around BGN 3.6 billion, remaining significantly below the 2024 estimates (BGN 7.1 billion). This is due to the non-receipt of the planned second and third tranches of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and part of the planned revenues from EU operational programmes (under-achievement of the estimates for aid and donation revenues under the CFP by around BGN 3.5 billion). 

The CFP expenditure (including Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget) for 2024 amounts to BGN 78.1 billion and represents 95.8% of the annual estimates for 2024. 

Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget paid by the end of 2024 amounts to BGN 1.6 billion.