site.btaBulgaria's GDP to Increase by 2.2% in 2024, with 3% Average Annual inflation

The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) expects an increase of Bulgaria's GDP of 2.2% in 2024 (compared to 1.8% in 2023), indicated tha BNB's March macroeconomic forecast published on Tuesday.

Economic growth will be driven by the positive contribution of domestic demand, while net exports are expected to have a negative contribution. Domestic demand is projected to be supported by an increase in private consumption amid rising real labour incomes, growth in investment activity, as well as higher government consumption.

The bank forecasts real GDP growth up to 3.3% in 2025 and then down to 2.6% in 2026, with this dynamic largely driven by the profile of public investment.

Annual inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is expected to slow to 2.3 percent at the end of 2024, and average annual inflation to stand at 3 percent. The BNB forecasts that the service and food groups will have the main positive contribution to overall inflation at the end of 2024.

The BNB's forecast for main macroeconomic indicators was prepared as of March 27, 2024 and is based on predictions about the development of global economic activity, the price dynamics of major commodity groups on international markets, and interest rates on the money market in the Eurozone as of March 7 2024.