site.btaUPDATED National Security Agency Head: Expansion of Middle East Conflicts Has No Impact on Migration Pressure on Bulgaria for Now

At this stage, the expansion of conflicts in the Middle East does not impact migration pressure on Bulgaria or the profile of illegal immigrants, Plamen Tonchev, Chairperson of the State Agency for National Security (SANS), said at a hearing in Parliament on Thursday.

The heads of the special services presented information about the measures taken by the government to guarantee security in the context of the processes in the Middle East, more specifically in Syria. They also discussed if there is any current credible information and if measures are being taken to address potential future refugee waves from Syria, the Gaza Strip, Afghanistan and other instability zones.

According to SANS's analysis, the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad does not resolve the existing problems in the country due to the many ethnic and religious groups with different interests. Tonchev noted that there are prerequisites for the return of Syrian refugees; there is also a potential for new migration waves.

He also said there has been no change in the profile of the migrants detained in Bulgaria, who are mostly young single Sunni Muslims, with low levels of education or illiterate. Most of them cite economic and social reasons for migration. However, the possibility of increased migration flows should not be ruled out, considering the high levels of displacement from conflict zones and the potential movement along the Eastern Mediterranean and Balkan routes, and Bulgaria is prepared to respond.

Tonchev further stated that SANS has been monitoring processes in Syria and migration routes, assessing any potential impact on Bulgaria, including the behavior of citizens from high-risk countries residing in Bulgaria.

According to Tonchev, one potential factor for escalating tensions and generating refugee flows is a possible operation by the new Syrian government, with support from Ankara, against Kurdish-controlled territories in Northern Syria.

He also said tension had been reported in Bulgaria's registration and reception centres after the fall of the Assad regime. In Harmanli (Southern Bulgaria), confrontational attitudes between Syrian refugees of Arab and Kurdish origin have intensified, including threats of violence.

SANS has also observed changes in the situation regarding international terrorism, particularly in the context of groups exploiting the power vacuum in Syria. To neutralize risks and threats to national security, SANS has been actively involved in the interagency framework for organization, logistics and information exchange, Tonchev said. The Interior Ministry and the security services have been taking measures to prevent illegal border crossings. As a result, numerous groups of foreign nationals have been prevented from entering Bulgarian territory, and others have been detained. Crimes are promptly reported to the prosecution authorities.

At the same time, SANS is exchanging data with partner agencies on matters related to migration processes. To assess the risk to national security and prevent potential threats, the agency's staff conducted 7,814 interviews with refugees registered at Bulgarian refugee centres in 2024. The interviews were conducted using a specialized questionnaire standardized with those of foreign partner services.

Commenting on issues related to radicalization, Tonchev noted that SANS relies on cooperation with security partner services, particularly with Turkiye.

On December 25-26, SANS identified an individual who was radicalized and calling for terrorist actions using vehicles in a city in Western Europe. The individual was discovered with symbols and other materials associated with Islamic State in a regional city in Bulgaria, Tonchev said.

At SANS's suggestion, 49 persons were included in Bulgaria's database of undesirable foreigners. Migration pressure remains a significant vector for terrorist threats, mainly due to the potential for infiltration of individuals with radical views and intentions, the SANS Chairperson said.

According to the agency's assessment, migration pressure on Europe, including via Bulgaria, is expected to persist. The main cause is the multi-directional destabilization in countries of the Middle East, Central and South Asia, and Africa, coupled with ongoing factors such as socio-economic problems.