site.btaMedia Review: October 28

OCTOBER 27 GENERAL ELECTIONS

Preliminary results:

Nine political parties and coalitions will enter the 51st National Assembly, according to data of the Central Election Commission based on 93.27% of tally sheets processed.

GERB-UDF wins the vote with 26.46%, followed by Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) with 14.38% and Vazrazhdane with 13.46%, separated by just over 22 000 votes (or less than 1%).

Next are Movement for Rights and Freedoms- New Beginning with 11.18%, BSP - United Left with 7.62%, Alliance for Rights and Freedoms with 7.29%, and There Is Such a People (TISP) with 6.84%. A new party MECh enter the 51st legislature with 4.62% of the vote, and Velichie is ninth with 4.04% of the vote.

Leaders' reactions

Sega.bg has rounded up the reactions of political leaders after the initial results on election night.

GERB leader Boyko Borissov made it clear that he wants to be prime minister. At a briefing at the party headquarters he categorically rejected the idea of CC-DB for a prime minister who would be equally distant from all political forces and announced that he was ready to negotiate a government with the other formations in parliament, except Vazrazhdane.

"We will not replace the people's vote. Our programme will be a point of reference for all those who want to have a government," he said declared. 

Borissov indirectly confirmed his intention to serve as prime minister. "The ones who got you into the eurozone waiting room are called GERB and Boyko Borissov. Is there anyone else with better contacts in Brussels than GERB?" he asked reporters.

The CC-DB implicitly acknowledged GERB-UDF’s victory. Former prime minister Nikolay Denkov told a news briefing that first Boyko Borissov's party should state its intentions as the winner of the elections, and then the right-wing will comment.

Denkov, who is among the leading figures of the CC, made it clear that the right would stick to its plan - for a cabinet headed by a prime minister who is equidistant from all political forces.

TISP deputy leader Toshko Yordanov said: "We would not work with the formation around Delyan Peevski. Mr Trifonov said it several times."

Vazrazhdane wrote on Facebook that they will wait for the final results.

"I voted for a better Bulgaria with a new beginning for everyone. With care for the people and finding agreements, for the sake of the people's hopes,'' MRF-New Beginning leader Delyan Peevski said on Facebook. During the campaign, Peevski categorically claimed that his formation would participate in the next regular government.

Video surveillance:

TrudNews.bg writes that nearly 15% of the 662 at-risk polling stations reported problems with video surveillance, with either no livestream or no counting process visible due to camera positioning, according to an AI analysis, prepared by the Democratic Center.

The analysis shows that in very few polling stations the ballots are shown in front of the camera and in most cases the ballots are separated in piles by party, then counted and recorded in a protocol.

Voting Abroad:

Voting on the West Coast of the US and Canada ended at 5 am Bulgarian time and according to Bulgaria’s diplomatic and consular services, all overseas polling stations have now completed their work and submitted their results, Bulgarian National Radio reported.

With 97.22% of tally sheets, 146,952 voters cast a ballot in the vote abroad. 

Bulgarian citizens were able to vote in a total of 719 polling stations in 57 countries, with the largest number in Europe, according to the Bulgarian Foreign Ministry.

Ahmed Dogan's coalition Alliance for Rights and Freedoms is the first political force in the vote abroad. It received 32,587 votes (23.34%). Most of these votes predictably came from Turkiye, where 29,496 people backed Dogan (64.76% of the votes in Turkiye).

Second is the CC-DB with 28, 252 votes (20.24%). Vazrazhdane is next, far behind the right-wing alliance with 18,335 votes (13.13%).

Fourth is Delyan Peevski's coalition MRF-New Beginning, receiving 14,317 votes (10.26%). Most of them came from Turkiye (12,961).

GERB-UDF remains fifth, with 11,195 votes (8.02%).

Velichie received 10,532 votes abroad (7.54%). Mikhailov's party is ahead of TISP, which took 9,912 votes (7.10%). Radostin Vassilev's MECh won 6,723 votes (4.82%).

Some 3,339 chose “none of the above” option.

Turkiye vote

With 82.42% of the processed tally sheets in Turkiye, Alliance for Rights and Freedoms won 64.76% of the vote (29,496 votes), while MRF - New Beginning - 28.46% (12, 961 votes).

According to unofficial information, Dogan’s party dominates in Ankara and Izmir, but in Istanbul the results are closer.

Turnout similar to the previous parliamentary vote or slightly higher is expected in Turkey.

In polling stations in the region of Edirne 10, 704 people voted, which is 10% more than in June. 

In Istanbul, normally strong polling stations such as those in Avcılar were empty at times, but there were more voters in other neighbourhoods such as Beylikduzu. Machines were the preferred voting method, and young voters were rare.

Bursa Mayor Mustafa Bozbey posted a video on his Instagram account on reflection day urging people to back Ahmed Dogan's Alliance for Rights and Freedoms.

ANALYSTS DISCUSS IMPLICATIONS

With nine parties, chances for a regular cabinet have diminished. It will be harder arithmetically. Without Boyko Borissov there will be no government. The change people wanted two years ago is dead or about to die, said political analyst Slavi Vassilev said ON the morning programme of BTV.

Georgi Harizanov believes that for GERB the victory is important and is a compliment for the people in the party. The question is whether the victory is important in the bigger picture. It will be extremely difficult to form a government more capable than the current caretaker government.

Political scientist Daniel Smilov asked why Bulgaria doesn’t have a government after seven elections. On the one hand, GERB does not want to govern with CC-DB because they believe that they impose conditions that are unacceptable to them. On the other hand, they do not want to govern without the CC-DB because they are afraid of protests or international reactions. Waiting now for the US elections, at least the external pressure will fall. In effect, this is the reason, and it is principled. Now there are two paths for GERB for a government - either they will try to enter into a coalition with CC-DB or take the risk and govern with Delyan Peevski and someone else. There is also a third option - to have another caretaker government again, but it is already becoming unserious.

Smilov added that the people have spoken, now these nine parties should form a government. Everywhere in the world there are coalitions that have not lasted.
According to Harizanov there are two options – either a coalition between GERB and CC-DB or a minority cabinet. Only the first option would have any public credibility and authority, Harizanov believes.
Speaking on Bulgarian National Television, Parvan Simeonov of Gallup said: "We are heading towards an 8- or 9-party parliament, which will vary Borissov's mandates. In a 9-party parliament GERB goes dangerously close to 60 seats. As it is, however, it will take at least three formations to form a government, and maybe it will take four parties for sure. So the task is not easy at all.”

Boryana Dimitrova  of Alpha Research commented that between a quarter or about 30% of MPs in parliament will represent anti-establishment parties such as Vazrazhdane, There is Such a People and Velichie. All of them see their niche to remain a firm opposition. Their political behaviour will be that of a radical opposition and this presents other lines. Fundamental consensuses may start to crack.

GERB will pass 600,000 votes with 550,000 in the last election. The CC-DB is supported by 340,000 people, compared to 300,000 in the last election.
"In the summer these parties hit rock bottom, now they are bouncing back slightly. But more interesting is something else. The two MRF fractions will have 400 000 votes in total, which disproves the initial expectation that there will be a retreat of the electorate", said Simeonov.

ECONOMY

All leading media outlets reproduced an interview with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, given to the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA) during this year's meetings of the Fund and the World Bank in Washington in which she says that the possibility of Bulgaria joining the euro area is real and feasible. "We saw that what was holding Bulgaria back was inflation. Now inflation is going down, the latest results are encouraging," she added.

Georgieva said that when it comes to the other indicators the country has to meet to adopt the euro, the country is doing excellent – it has low external debt and low budget deficit, she pointed out.

The specific date for Bulgaria's entry into the euro area, however, "depends on the currency union itself, how they see this deadline".

According to the IMF Managing Director, Bulgaria has kept the good tradition of having a sound fiscal policy. "However, the need for investment is great. The question facing the country is whether the time has come to review tax policy".

Bulgaria has a 10% tax, which is good for business and investment, but the country also has an inequality problem that puts it among the last in Europe in this respect. This problem requires more attention to tax policy, Georgieva recommended.

Fiscally, the country is doing well, she clarified, but stressed the need for fiscal resources, because "we have an even bigger demographic problem than in other countries and it requires resources. Fewer working people support more pensioners."

"We have a problem with investing in infrastructure, the kind of infrastructure that Bulgarian citizens dream of having, but do not have yet, and we need for investment in human capital. Bulgaria's results in terms of quality of education could be better", the IMF managing director further explained.

Asked whether there was a risk of a further slowdown in the Bulgarian economy compared to the IMF's latest forecasts published earlier in the week, she said she saw no arguments for such a development.

"There are no reasons why Bulgaria's economy should slow down further, but so far I do not see a reliable enough signal that what has been hindering the country a lot recently will be overcome, namely the delayed absorption of EU funds", Georgieva further pointed out and added that this is why "it is important for Bulgaria to have a stable government".

***

24 Chasa reports that electricity imports increased by 37.4% in the first nine months of the year compared with the same period in 2023. The largest quantities entered through Romania - 2 million MWh, and Greece - 500,000 MWh. Imports from Serbia, North Macedonia and Turkey are minimal. In total, 3.6 million MWh were imported. Exports were down by 12%, but still higher than imports - 5 million MWh. Most electricity was transferred to Greece - 1.6 million MWh, and to Romania - 1.4 million MWh because of shortages in the region., according to an analysis published by the Energy Management Institute based on data from the organization of European electricity system operators.

This means that while electricity in Bulgaria was expensive and was exported abroad, traders found a way to import, despite transmission grid bottlenecks between Eastern and Central Europe and their insufficient capacity to transport electricity to the Balkans. During the past hot summer, Central Europe saw prices of EUR 0.03 to 0. 10 per MWh, while here, and in the Balkans up to and including Hungary, it surpassed EUR 100. Because of this, businesses demanded compensation for the expensive electricity, similar to the crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and the stoppage of Russian gas deliveries in 2022.

Bulgaria's year-to-date electricity production through September totaled 27.9 million MWh, down 7.9% from the first nine months of 2023. Almost all sources saw a contraction in generation except from solar and hydro power facilities.

LOCAL BY-ELECTIONS

24 Chasa reports that the candidates of Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB), Yanislava Shopova and Nikolay Zhelyazkov, have won local by-elections in two of Varna’s boroughs. In Odessos Shopova won 9, 117 votes against 7,769 for Georgi Nedev (GERB), and in Primorski Zhelyazkov received 13,006 against 11,688 for Lyudmila Koleva (GERB).

Turnout was at 28.46% in Odessos and at 31.98% in Primorski - nearly 3 times higher than last Sunday, when it was a record low 11%/

During the week, the Central Election Commission issued instructions for local elections to be held separately from parliamentary elections, with separate polling stations, premises, ballot boxes. This meant that Varna had to find urgently 2,000 new polling stations members, 200 premises, etc.  The municipal election commission did not comply and used different ballot boxes only for local by-elections.

So, CC-DB managed to keep hold of the two boroughs in Varna. Varna Mayor BlagomIr Kotsev is also from CC-DB, the other three boroughs are dominated by of GERB. The by-elections came about because last local election’s winners did not leave the companies the participated in on time.

UKRAINE AMBASSADOR INTERVIEW

TrudNews.bg carries an interview with Ukraine’s Ambassador to Bulgaria Olesya Ilashchuk with the war in Ukraine going into its third year and no clear signs that the conflict can end soon despite support from Kyiv's allies.

As of 24 February 2022, over 1 million Ukrainians have arrived in Bulgaria, according to Ambassador Ilashchuk.

Asked about the risk of the war spilling over, the Ambassador says that after analyzing the First and Second World Wars, the only conclusion is that all together, with common efforts, the international community must do everything possible and impossible to end Russia's war against Ukraine as soon as possible and under the conditions of a just peace. This means a return to respect for the norms of international law and restoring Ukraine's state sovereignty and territorial integrity within the internationally recognized borders of 1991.

In order to achieve this goal, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented his Peace Formula, in the implementation of which Bulgaria took an active part. The Peace Formula as an international initiative aims not only to stop Russia‘s armed aggression against Ukraine, but also to provide opportunities to solve current international problems and prevent potential conflicts.

Asked whether a military solution to the conflict is possible, or should a diplomatic one be sought, the Ambassador says that diplomatic instruments are effective in preventing the outbreak of war. At the moment, when the war has been going on for the third year, calls for dialogue or negotiations are not leading to the solution of key issues on the international agenda.

Ukraine needs strong consolidated decisions from the international coalition and support for the Victory Plan, recently presented by the President of Ukraine. 

Asked what Ukraine she sees in 5-10 years, the diplomat says that every Ukrainian lives with the dream and vision of a peaceful Ukraine. A country in which all Ukrainian citizens of different nationalities coexist peacefully. Ukraine has always prided itself on its multinationality, as representatives of more than 100 nationalities and live in Ukraine, including a large Bulgarian community. The majority of Ukrainians see Ukraine as a full member of the European Union and NATO. As a country with huge economic potential, where everyone can and has opportunities to make a name for themselves. In fact, Ukrainians want to live in their country, to build friendly relations with their neighbours. 

CULTURE

A Bulgarian painting has sold for nearly EUR 150,000, writes 24 Chasa. “A Peasant with a Donkey in a Field" by artist Ivan Angelov was bought at an auction in Vienna. The painting was painted in 1910 with oil on canvas and measures 81 by 131 cm.

"The auction of 19th century paintings on October 23 was characterized by intense bidding. The work of Ivan Angelov - one of the leading Bulgarian artists, achieved an impressive price of EUR 148,200 euros," the Vienna-based Dorotheum auction house wrote on Facebook. The starting price was between EUR 10,000-15,000 and the painting comes from a European private collection.

This is the most expensive painting by a Bulgarian artist sold in the last 50 years", producer Igor Markovski wrote on Facebook. However, the buyer is unknown. 

Born in 1864 in the Bulgarian village of Brenitsa, Ivan Angelov began his artistic training at the School of Applied Arts in Munich in 1881 and studied at the Royal Bavarian Academy of Fine Arts under Carl Theodor von Piloty from 1882. After his return to his homeland, he continued to teach in Sliven, Plovdiv and Sofia and in 1890 was appointed professor of painting and drawing at the newly opened state drawing school in Sofia.

He was one of the most important figures in Bulgarian artistic life in the first decades after independence and one of the founders of the so-called ‘New Bulgarian Art’. The main theme in his oeuvre was peasant life and field labour in all its facets, according to the auction house’s website.