site.btaUPDATED Gallup International Balkan: 30,5% Certain They Will Vote in October 27 Snap Elections

As of the beginning of October, some 30.5% of eligible voters expressed certainty about exercising their right to vote in Bulgaria's October 27 snap general elections, given the ambiguity of election lists, declarative attitudes, etc. The provisional expectation is for around 2 million votes. 3.1% of all voters are expected to vote with "I support no one", according to an independent Gallup International Balkan poll on voter attitudes at the beginning of October. The poll is not a forecast of the election result, but a snapshot for the start of the election campaign.

The survey was conducted between September 28 and October 6, 2024 among 806 people by face-to-face interviews with tablets. The sample is representative of the country's adult population.

The polling agency points out that if the elections were held at the beginning of October and respondents' declarations were fulfilled, the results would probably be as follows: GERB - UDF maintained a significant lead as the first political force with 25.7% of the votes. Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) stands out more clearly ahead of Vazrazhdane with 16.6% versus 15.4% respectively. At this stage, it is difficult to determine who would finish second and third, and surprising developments are not ruled out, the polling agency said.

It is more difficult to determine with demoscopic methods the situation in the field of the traditional electorate of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), which has split in two. The Alliance for Rights and Freedoms is standing at 8.3%. An upward trend is visible for the MRF - New Beginning, which entered the campaign with lower figures, but by now would have received the support of 6.9%. The BSP-United Left would have 7.1% and the There Is Such a People (TISP) would have 6.3%. All these formations are at this point in a kind of "package", but the development of the campaign can change many things, insofar as, for example, the prominence of the MRF - New Beginning is already visible.

Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) with 3.7% has a good chance, as does Velichie [Grandeur], which is at 3.2% as of early October. Blue Bulgaria is at 1.1%. The remaining shares are distributed among formations with declared support below one percent at this stage.