site.btaMedia Review: August 23

On Friday, analysts speculate about the options for the formation of a new caretaker cabinet after President Rumen Radev gave the present caretaker Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev until August 26 to nominate ministers. The news media also highlight reactions to Vazrazhdane party's posting on social media of a list of teachers who had signed a petition against a recently adopted controversial "LGBT school propaganda ban law".

COUNTDOWN TO NEW CARETAKER CABINET

The media analyse the options for a new caretaker cabinet, which, if approved by the President on August 26, will open the way for snap elections on October 27. Analysts in 24 Chasa, Trud, mediapool.bg and other media seem to agree that the key to the new cabinet is the replacement of Interior Minister Kalin Stoyanov. Mandating Glavchev, President Radev apparently instructed him to this effect. He urged the PM-designate to make "well-thought-out changes in his present government" and said the new one should make fighting vote buying and controlled voting its top priority.

Based on Glavchev's statement that he will work towards calming down the political situation, mediapool.bg concludes that Stoyanov will lose his job. Simona Kostadinova comments that GERB leader Boyko Borissov is rumoured to want Stoyanov replaced by someone serviceable to him and above all to Delyan Peevski, one of the two chairmen of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF). He has lost control over a large segment of the party loyal to MRF founder and honorary chairman Ahmed Dogan, so that now the interior minister is the person who could repress those who do not side with Peevski. He said he himself would ask Stoyanov to top a list of his party if he was dismissed, thus outing him as his minister. If Glavchev wants to ensure continuity in the Interior Ministry, he may nominate one of Stoyanov's three deputies. Some sources say, however, that Radev does not want anyone of them to replace the present minister.

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The Interior Ministry is in the focus of an analysis in the Capital weekly. The author says it has long been used as a political tool with two functions - as an umbrella and a cudgel. The cudgel is used when someone has to be attacked, such as businessmen loyal to Ahmed Dogan. At the same time, the Interior Ministry tends to turn a blind eye to vote-buying schemes. The author lists towns in which the MRF saw an increase in votes in June 2024 amid falling voter turnouts. If the prosecution service investigates pressure on [failed PM-designate] Goritsa Kozhareva for the removal of Kalin Stoyanov as Interior Minister from her proposed cabinet line-up, the question is whether it will investigate pressure from Peevski to keep Stoyanov in his job. The Interior Ministry seems to be a key tool for dealing with anyone who interferes with Peevski's interests.

The cover story of the Capital weekly is headlined "Peevski against All". Analysing the political crisis, the weekly says: "After he was condemned publicly by the man who promoted him in politics [a reference to Ahmed Dogan], handing him his know-how on how to use it for economic and even greater political clout, we see Peevski's offensive on all fronts and against all who can harm his interests." Peevski's attacks on his former fellow party members are getting more fierce and are coming closer to the honorary chairman. One line of attack is on businessmen close to Dogan like Rumen Gaytanski, who is in custody under an investigation for a BGN 150 million loan granted in 2019 by the Bulgarian Development Bank to a company linked to him. Information has emerged about Dogan's connection to that loan. Certain media received anonymous emails that BGN 30 million of it was redirected to repay debts of Varna TPP, whose majority owner at the time was Dogan. This was confirmed a day later by the Commission for Anti-Corruption.

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In a Trud interview, Trend Agency's political analyst Dimitar Ganev says the only alternative to Glavchev as second-time caretaker PM was to have the list of potential candidates expanded by a majority in Parliament. It could have started on an anti-Peevski drive, but GERB would not have joined in because the party does not want a prime minister other than Glavchev. It would have been a steep proposition to get Vazrazhdane, Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB), There Is Such a People, Dogan's supporters of the MRF, the Socialist MPs and a few MPs of the defunct Velichie group to sit at the same table and agree on a couple of people to fill the vacancies of potential caretaker PM candidates. Also, this would have delayed the elections by more than a month. The election of an ombudsman takes at least three to four weeks. The election of vice presidents of the Bulgarian National Audit Office (BNAO) would be even more complicated as a law would need to pass on two readings to allow Parliament to nominate people for this post, because at the moment only the BNAO President can do this. Asked about a possible solution to the political crisis, Ganev says that having a regular government and keeping it in office for over two years would not end it. The current party system is in a permanent crisis, judging from the trend of voter turnouts in the last 25 years. There are about 3.5 million voters, and just 2.2 million voters went to the polls in the June parliamentary elections. A solution could emerge in the longer term either through new political entities which will overhaul the party system, or through a new constitutional model with a head of State with broader powers in a presidential or semi-presidential republic.

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A panel of political analysts on Nova TV's morning talk show were asked if Stoyanov would be replaced and if this would help the formation of a caretaker cabinet. Georgi Kiryakov raised the issue of the parties' role in ensuring fair elections through their observers and members of the section election commissions. The controversy surrounding the interior ministry is taking place in the context of an election campaign, but the Council of Ministers is not solely responsible for fair elections.

Assoc. Prof. Stoycho Stoychev opined that the role of the Interior Ministry and the cabinet is, above all, to ensure there is no pressure on voters. The Central Election Commission is responsible for the transparency and fairness of elections, and the main criterion for the fairness of a vote is whether any party contests it. Continue the Change Co-chairman Kiril Petkov accepted the results of the latest elections, therefore they were fair.

Parvan Simeonov talked about suspicions that Kalin Stoyanov is heavily dependent on Peevski. Borissov is aware that CC-DB hopes to make an informal coalition against Peevski and knows they may try to ostracize him, so he is back to his balancing role. The analyst expects a fierce battle between the anti-Peevski parties and an overly satanized Peevski.

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Political analyst Prof. Svetoslav Malinov told Nova TV the police officers' protest in support of Kalin Stoyanov should have given enough grounds for his dismissal. Malinov commented that Glavchev had compromised himself as regards the Interior Ministry, adding that he lacked "institutional culture".

24 Chasa says that in addition to naming a replacement for Stoyanov, Glavchev will give up his position as chief diplomat and the current Deputy Foreign Minister Ivan Kondov is almost certain to get this portfolio. Transport and Communications Minister Georgi Gvozdeykov may also be replaced.

Assoc. Prof. Hristo Ormandzhiev, a constitutional law expert, told the Bulgarian National Radio that the situation could be remedied by expanding the list from which the President can pick a caretaker prime minister.

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Commenting on the upcoming elections, Boryana Dimitrova of Alpha Research said she expected voter turnout to remain low. The MRF is unlikely to split into two; its showing may not be as strong as in the June elections which made it the second biggest parliamentary group before the scandal between Dogan and Peevski. A possible party led by Peevski is the big unknown.

VAZRAZHDANE BLACKLIST OF TEACHERS OPPOSING LGBT PROPAGANDA BAN IN SCHOOL

Vazrazhdane Thursday alerted the prosecution service to more than 800 school teachers, principals and psychologists who had signed a petition against a recently adopted ban on the propaganda, promotion or incitement in the education system of ideas and views related to non-traditional sexual orientation and/or gender identity other than the biological sex.

24 Chasa reports Vazrazhdane called them "criminals". The petition was initiated by Boris Iliev, who teaches Bulgarian language and literature at the National High School of Mathematics and Natural Sciences. He is quoted as saying that propaganda of any kind cannot happen because Bulgarian teachers are moderate, reasonable and do not allow ideologies to interfere in their work. The Sofia City Prosecution Office is to decide on Friday whether to launch a probe into incitement to hatred and the Varna District Prosecution Office is also acting on the case.

Mediapool.bg comments that "the 'blacklist' of teachers released by the pro-Russian party (…) turned into a kind of witch-hunt in Bulgarian education". The Education and Science Ministry reacted by saying that it and the pre-school and school institutions will continue to defend tolerance, anti-discrimination, the Bulgarian traditions, common human values and the policy of inclusion. Vazrazhdane's blacklist was condemned by CC-DB co-leader Kiril Petkov, Floor Leader Nikolay Denkov and MPs Yavor Bozhankov and Manol Peykov. The amendments were backed by a majority cutting through party lines, with the exception of CC-DB, which voted against.

Interviewed on the Bulgarian National Television, sociologist Boryana Dimitrova from the Alpha Research polling agency said that if people uninitiated in the cynical considerations of politicians wondered what this ban is about, what it regulates and whether it makes sense, after the blacklists were released they will no longer wonder about its meaning and purpose. This law does not have school education as its object. The teachers on those lists have many years' experience and they made it very clear that there is no propaganda in school. The law's purposes are outside school: to stigmatize and denigrate people.

Trud reports that Continue the Change will move for a revision of the controversial amendment to the Pre-School and School Education Act next week. The party argued that the amendments not just tackled a non-existent problem - they created a big new problem.

One of the people who signed the petition, school psychologist and philosophy teacher Martin Stoyanov from Varna, told bTV some teachers were worried about their safety: "You know what country we live in, they might post our addresses tomorrow. Everything can be expected from people who are ready to divide the nation for the sake of winning 1-2% in the next election." He argued that some topics will become taboo in school, although Bulgaria has some of the highest suicide rates among teenagers and young people.

BUSINESS

24 Chasa reports that an Egyptian, who registered a company on August 1, is planning to transform the landmark TZUM building in central Sofia into a 5-star hotel. The building will house a spa centre, a rose oil museum and an Egyptian museum. Ahmed Nasr, founder and director of Antika World, has laid out his plans to Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Tsvetan Simeonov. The concept for the overhaul will be made public on September 19 and the purpose of the meeting with BCCI was to discuss the participation of Bulgarian producers with stands in the transformed building. TZUM, designed in 1956, is owned by businessman Georgi Gergov, until recently a high-ranking member of the Socialist Party. He bought the building in 2004, claiming that he had paid EUR 30 million for it.

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A Plovdiv-based company, PIMK Rail, is planning to launch a railway service between Sofia and the Black Sea city of Burgas by the year's end and four more services in 2027. The company will not rely on state subsidies and ticket prices will be cost-based.

SOCIETY

The topic of this week's Capital is "Bulgaria in the Mirror World of YouTube". Hundreds of thousands of Bulgarians watch tons of political content on YouTube every day. Geopolitics is heavily covered, with a noticeable pro-Russian slant on some of the major channels. Many topics discussed on YouTube are not covered by the mainstream media. The most striking example of how YouTube can influence political views is the Velichie party, which entered Parliament in June through the online network of the Historical Park tourist attraction in Northeastern Bulgaria, former National Service for Protection officer Nikolay Markov and vlogger Kiro Break.

US ELECTIONS

An article on Harris vs. Trump in the Capital weekly says Kamala Harris has set out to revive America's middle class, in part through measures reducing the cost of living and providing economic security. The Democratic candidate focuses on lowering food and prescription drug prices and expanding affordable housing to strengthen the middle class. Meanwhile, economists have criticized her intention to curb food prices. Much of Harris's programme is an expansion of policies proposed by Joe Biden.