site.btaMedia Review: June 19

Bulgaria's 50th National Assembly opened its inaugural sitting at 9 am on Wednesday, according to a decree issued by President Rumen Radev. The government-forming negotiations, led by the largest political force in the new Parliament, GERB-UDF, dominate the media.

Trud reports that Velichie leader Nikolay Markov was late for the ceremony during which new members of Parliament were sworn in. In order to become an MP, Markov must take an oath at the next session and sign the oath sheet, the daily writes, quoting constitutionalists, without naming them.

24 Chasa writes that the vote for new National Assembly Chair failed after GERB’s candidate Raya Nazaryan came 6 votes short with a total of 117. The other nominees were Vazrazhdane MP Petar Petrov (38 votes), There Is Such a People (TISP) MP Silvi Kirilov (17) and Velichie MP Yuliana Mateeva (12).

GOVERNMENT-FORMING NEGOTIATIONS

On Nova Television’s morning show, PR expert Diana Damyanova, political scientists Svetoslav Malinov and Stoycho Stoychev, sociologist Dimitar Ganev and journalist Asen Agov discussed whether the parties will manage to form a new regular government given the results from the elections. "

The only possible coalition is between GERB and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF). The most likely only other partner will be TISP, the process is currently underway to convince them," Malinov said. He argued that Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) were stopped and isolated because they wanted changes that protect the national interest. 

"If TISP refuse to support the cabinet, then we go to elections, and they will be accused of throwing the country into chaos," Ganev said. He expressed belief that there will be no classical formula of coalition, and the three political formations can disguise it as an expert government. 

Damyanova said that if the GERB does not form a government, the party will be "punished" by the voters at the next election. 

Agov believes that TISP will support the government, as does Stoychev.

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In an interview with the Bulgarian National Radio, political scientist Rumyana Kolarova argued that TISP does not want to be seen as the deciding factor for the formation of a government with GERB and MRF. She added that time works in favour of GERB. "The caretaker government, as it is, does not work for the President and it does not work for any kind of opposition to GERB. If a formula cannot be achieved, the sooner the next elections, the better for GERB," she pointed out and argued that MRF and TISP will not try to form a majority given the strategy of the other parties. 

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Mediapool features an article which says that “Since its first entry into parliament three years ago, TISP has appeared as a reserve party of MRF, so in this case it would do what [one of the two leaders of MRF] Delyan Peevski says - for example to support a GERB-MRF cabinet without participating in it. However, the presence of a third player has important image significance for [GERB leader] Borissov to blur the contours of his apparent alliance with Peevski, the media outlet notes. Mediapool quotes an election campaign speech by Peevski, during which he says that MRF will decide who can govern, who can be prime minister and who can be ministers. “In general, Borissov has little choice, since Peevski has already decided that MRF will rule with GERB's mandate. Unfortunately for Borissov, this time the CC-DB will not participate in the performance of "shared responsibility" and run around the stage, conveniently shifting the focus from the real conductor of power,” the media outlet writes. 

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On bTV's morning show, political analyst Slavi Vasilev predicted that a sustainable majority in parliament is unlikely to be formed. "The fracture of the state was evident as early as yesterday in the mood of Borissov, who showed during his press conference that he clearly does not want to deal with governance," he said. 

ECONOMY

On Bulgarian National Television’s morning show, Confederation of Independent Trade Unions of Bulgaria’s senior economist Lyuboslav Kostov, Institute for Market Economics ‘s (IME) senior economist Adrian Nikolov and Supreme Bar Council Chair Ivaylo Dermendzhiev discussed the urgent task before the 50th National Assembly. 

"The first task of the new parliament is income. The second task is also income. The third is again income," Kostov said. He added that the political crisis led to a lag in government wages relative to the private sector. „Тhis is our main demand: first - to compensate for inflation, second - to catch up with the private sector, which means at least 10-12% income growth for all workers next year," Kostov stressed.

Nikolov expressed doubts that Bulgaria will be able to enter the Euro zone in 2025. “The main fault here is not the problems with meeting the Maastricht criteria. In October-November, a bit more conservatively in December, Bulgaria will meet this criterion for the average monthly inflation. But most likely, unless we have a stable government with a very evident Euro-Atlantic leaning, our European partners will thus be quite reserved about accepting a country in an unstable political situation in an electoral spiral,” he added. IME’s senior economist also highlighted the adoption of a new State Budget as a priority for the National Assembly. „Unfortunately, the previous few Parliaments have demonstrated that the country does not fall apart when the Budget is not adopted in November. But this is a dangerous practice, because it will mean that if the budget act is not written on time, we will have to operate with the 2024 one, given that we are in a different reality - with much lower inflation, with a higher GDP, and in this sense drawing up a new macro framework, recalculating revenues and making new budget policy is quite important," he underlined. The Recovery and Resilience Plan is also waiting for amendments in laws by the new parliament so the conditions for the last tranches are covered, Nikolov said. 

Dermendzhiev pointed out that the judicial reform is back on the agenda.

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Telegraph writes that the caretaker cabinet is expected to approve at Wednesday’s regular meeting the new amount of the old-age pension from July 1st this year. The increase is by 11%, the same as the other pensions granted until the end of last year. The social pension for old age will increase by BGN 30.43. From July 1, it will be BGN 307.07. The change will affect over 137,000 pensioners, the daily writes. There will also be an increase in the supplementary pensions, which over 70,000 disabled people receive. It amounts to 75% of the old-age social allowance and so from July 1 it will be BGN 230.30.

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24 Chasa features an article on the potential introduction of a daily vignette in Bulgaria in 2025. The newspaper writes that this will happen if parliament passes the amendments to the Roads Act, released for public consultation by the Regional Development Ministry. The price of the vignette will be between BGN 4 and 5. The main motive for its introduction is that in the summer in Bulgaria there is a lot of transit traffic of cars that cross the country in less than a day.

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Sega quotes Bulgarian Industrial Capital Association (BICA) data, according to which Bulgaria's budget loses BGN 3 billion a year due to undeclared employment. BICA’s studies show that the informal economy and undeclared employment in particular are declining - slowly but steadily. "The share of the shadow economy in Bulgaria is still high compared to the northern EU countries, but it is approaching the average levels in the southern EU Member States,” the media outlet quotes BICA Director Dobrin Ivanov as saying. "Many reforms are needed in the medium and long term to brighten the Bulgarian economy. The judiciary, the pension system, healthcare, internal security and defence, public administration are in urgent need of reform, reforms to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of public spending are also needed. There is a need to reduce administrative burdens on business and simplify the determination and payment of taxes," BICA concludes in its research on the shadow economy in the country.    

EDUCATION

Telegraph features an article on the national external evaluation exams held on Wednesday. A total of 59,424 students will be evaluated in Bulgarian language and literature after 7th grade. The examination will commence on Wednesday at 9.00 am and will be held in 1665 schools around the country. "This year we have a 15-minute extension of the exam time on the first module,” the daily quotes Sofia City Regional Inspectorate of Education head Vanya Kastreva. The math exam will be held on Friday. Kastreva pointed out that the results of both exams will be released on July 2.