site.btaPolitical Overview of 2023

The establishment of a regular government and changes to the constitution marked the political year 2023, according to experts Dimitar Ganev from Trend Agency and Parvan Simeonov from Gallup International Balkan. BTA turned to them for an overview of the most important events of the past year, the problems that remain unresolved, and the change in confidence in the political system.

The events of 2023

Internationally, the war in Gaza and the entry of artificial intelligence into everyday life will be the events that will mark 2023, according to Dimitar Ganev. In his words, domestically, the creation of a regular government is the event of the year because it crowns the important processes that have been developing for a long time. He believes that the political crisis that started in 2021 seems to be at least temporarily solved.

The "status quo -- change" division that completely defined Bulgaria’s political life for three years is already buried, Ganev said, adding that in 2023 there is a new division around which the main political players grouped – this country’s Euro-Atlantic orientation. It has become possible for parties that until a year ago were recognised as main opponents to govern jointly today, the political scientist believes. He noted that this year the institutional centre of Bulgarian politics has changed. In the previous decade, which was dominated by GERB, it was the Council of Ministers that set the tone, then between 2021 and 2023 it was the President, and since the middle of this year it has been undoubtedly the National Assembly, Ganev explained.

The event that defines the year is the war in Ukraine. If we talk about Bulgaria, this is the main event that determines the formula of power in the country, Parvan Simeonov believes. According to him, the event that is most important in domestic politics is the changes in the Constitution for the simple reason that the co-chair of Democratic Bulgaria, Hristo Ivanov, tried to push through such changes a few years ago and succeeded a few years later. According to Simeonov, the war has led to the fact that a pro-Western majority could be formed to push through these changes in the Constitution.

He reminded about a Gallup International poll on the subject from the summer. There was no enthusiasm, and there was no huge public interest in this, he said, adding that there is not a lot of trust in this government. Because of that, it does not have much legitimacy to make constitutional changes, Simeonov said, but noted that a more legitimate formula could not have been found because it brought together the “status quo” and the “change”, which now look so identical that there will be quite a few people in Bulgaria who will start thinking about a third option and look for a general alternative to everything that is happening, Simeonov said.

The unsolved problems

The wars in Gaza and in Ukraine have not been resolved this year. However, we have enough indications that in 2024 the chance for hostilities to end in both places is serious, believes Dimitar Ganev. According to him, this will lead to a new political situation both in the world and at home. The most important problem that the government in Bulgaria has to solve is to find an effective mechanism for decision-making between the partners in the government. The lack of such a mechanism creates constant tensions and scandals between the ruling parties, which erodes Cabinet’s credibility. The biggest immediate challenge facing the ruling majority at the beginning of next year will be the implementation of the rotation. What will be the personnel changes, will there be a reform of the priorities and the governance programme, will it be decided what will be the life of this majority, these are all questions to which the answers are still unclear and seem difficult, Ganev said.

We have to see what will happen with Schengen, with the euro area, with fuel and the derogation, said Parvan Simeonov. He believes that because it enjoys the support of the Western partners, at some point the government might receive a gift from them to further stabilise it.

Trust in the political system

Trust in the Bulgarian political system has not changed seriously this year. The levels before and after the formation of the regular cabinet remain low, said Dimitar Ganev. According to him, this in itself is not good news for the government because traditionally every new government manages to recharge the trust in the political system. This was not the case with this Cabinet, mostly due to the fact that no one was happy with the “assemblage” (a term used to refer to the ruling parties, consisting of GERB, Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms) - neither the electorate of GERB, nor that of CC-DB, not to mention the supporters of the opposition parties, Ganev said. He pointed out that the low trust in the government and parliament is one of the biggest problems for this government.

Unfortunately, there is not much good news, said Parvan Simeonov when asked how trust in the political system has changed this year. He noted that voter turnout is very low, as is trust in elections. He pointed out that in exit polls in many places some people have not revealed how they voted, which means they do not feel very free. “I have the feeling that the political crisis we have been living in for the past few years has turned into a crisis of democracy,” the expert further commented.