site.btaMedia Review: October 27

UPCOMING ELECTIONS

The local elections on October 29 dominate heavily the printed, broadcast and electronic media on Friday which is the last day for campaigning before the reflection day on Saturday and the voting day on Sunday. There are opinion polls, comments by analysts and many interviews with mayoral candidates. 

The cover story of the new Capital weekly is about the upcoming local elections. Headlined “Elections to Hold the Lines”, it says that because there is no real political battle, the influence of parties in local power will be the same as that in Parliament. The big change may come if Vassil Terziev wins the mayoral office in Sofia but the Municipal Council in the capital will rely on coalitions. Launching a parallel campaign as something of an alternative government, GERB leader Boyko Borissov and Delyan Peevski, the co-leader of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) are sending a message that the laundering of images is over. The story also says that opinion polls ahead of the vote don’t show stable attitudes that will bring changes in the municipalities. According to the paper, however, battles won on local level can precipitate developments for the central government. 

Capital carries comments by several prominent political and social analysts. According to Genoveva Petrova (Alfa Research), GERB will lose influence in the municipal councils. Social analyst Zhivko Georgiev believes that GERB will be spared a dramatic defeat. Gallup International director Parvan Simeonov argues that a growth for Vazrazhdane on local level will benefit the central government. Simeonov also sees a general wave of depoliticization on local level.

In another story the weekly looks at what the chances are for the parties to win the regional capitals. It says that powerful behind-the-scenes centres are at play in Varna and Plovdiv, where they control between 10% and 20% of the votes. Capital says that people should be watching what the municipal councils do because even though mayoral elections are majoritarian, the key decisions are made by the municipal councils, whose composition and actions are often unclear for voters – and that is a problem. As the parties are expected to have to make deals for majorities in the councils, the problem with the lack of transparency will likely remain, the paper says. 

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Standard News leads with a story saying that 13 cities are likely to elect mayors on the first round. The list of towns which are expected to elect their mayors (or rather re-elect their current mayors) right away includes Burgas, Stara Zagora, Kardjali, Vratsa, Montana, Kyustendil, Pernik, Yambol, Pazardjik, Targovishte and Haskovo, as well as possibly Gabrovo and Ruse. The most dramatic battle is expected for the mayor’s office in Sofia. Run-off elections are expected in half of the country. This paper, too, carries comments by political analysts. Vassil Tonchev of Sova Harris expects dramatic battles in Sofia, Plovdiv and Varna. Julii Pavlov of the Centre for Analyses and Marketing expects to see bargaining for the local parliaments. Yurii Aslanov of Afis does not expect the elections to precipitate a government shakeup. Boryana Dimitrova of Alfa Research expects surprises in towns with new candidates. 

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The cover story in 24 Chasa says that 5 days of school break and warm weather will bring down the voter turnout. It quotes a travel agency official saying that years ago people would ask to reschedule their vacation to be able to vote but now nobody is interested in doing that. 

According to this paper, at least three cities will elect their mayor right away but in three others the battle will be fierce. In Sofia, three polling agencies put Vassil Terziev, the candidate of CC-DB and Save Sofia, at the lead with a margin of 3% to 9% from the runner-up, and Vanya Grigorova and Anton Hekimyan running neck-and-neck for the second place. 

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An interview on the Bulgarian National Radio (BNR) offers a mathematician’s take on the electoral picture in Bulgaria. Oher than offering some math based on election-related figures, Lachezar Tomov said that having more candidates, as is the case for the upcoming elections, does not necessarily mean a bigger choice for voters. He also said that politicians don’t listen to the experts and that math is not used in present-day elections: if politicians had used math, they would have collected good data. He argues that interferences in the elections usually comes from the East – not the West. “The poor the education of the populace, the stronger the influence of these algorithms gets,” the mathematician said. Tomov said he was shocked by the lack of predictability of the elections.

Also on BNR, political analyst Alexander Malinov, who is a former head of the Strategic Council of President Rumen Radev, said that tensions are growing inside the “assemblage”, a word that is often used for the government of Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria and GERB when the speaker wants to underscore its perceived unprincipled nature. “This is partly due to the upcoming elections, but not only, I believe. It is my opinion that a reshuffle is in the offing, a remodeling of the ‘assemblage’ and obviously a combined pressure from MRF and GERB is put on CC-DB, and more specifically on CC,” said Marinov.

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Health Miniser Hristo Hinkov said on the morning programme of Bulgarian National Television (BNT) that due to provisions in the Health Act, people under quarantine for COVID will be unable to vote on October 29. He added that the Ministry had proposed that these texts be dropped but unfortunately the MPs did not vote on them before taking a break for a week before the elections. There were a total of 376 new confirmed cases of coronavirus across the country on Thursday, with 5,472 active cases, according to coronavirus.bg.  

Also on BNT, Central Election Commission deputy chair Rossitsa Mateva explained how the votes will be counted. The section commission won’t be adding the results of the paper ballots and the machine voting: it will be done in the counting centres with the municipal election commissions. Mateva believes that time pressure, fatigue and failing to read carefully the methodological instructions is most often what causes the errors in the protocols from the voting. She showed the three types of ballots that will be used on October 29 (for city mayor, borough mayor, municipal council and mayoralty mayor) and explained how the video surveillance of the vote counting will work.

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On the morning show of bTV, social analyst Dobromir Zhivkov of Marke LINKS said that one things can be expected with certainty after the elections: a stronger presence of CC-DB and Vazrazhdane in local politics. In the same studio, Genoveva Petrova of Alfa Research argued that neither of the two will do as well as expected. In the case of Vazrazhdane, their inroads in local government will be via the municipal councils.  

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Nova TV quotes Interior Minister Kalin Stoyanov as saying that a total of 1,080 alerts for election violations have been received during this campaign. The largest number were in the regions of Burgas, Varna, Montana, Vratsa and Sofia. He said that for the first time law-enforcers are using actively geographic information systems as a tool to handle alerts in real time.

OTHER HIGHLIGHTS

Trud leads with a story about energy poverty in Bulgaria. A couple with two children earning wages of less than BGN 1,400 each will be considered energy-poor and will qualify for allowances for heating and electricity, according to an ordinance on the standards for energy poverty, that has been published for public consultation. The allowance will also depend on the age of the housing and those who live in older homes will have a bigger chance for support.

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Telegraf leads with contemplated legislation that will tighten the rules for driving under the influence, will lower the admissible level for alcohol in the blood and set limits for some drugs. The new rules have been prepared by the Interior Ministry and will be proposed to the legislature. Now, a driver caught with alcohol in the blood of 0.5 to 1.2 per mil, will be charged with an administrative misdemeanor, and if the level is over 1.2 per mil, the driver is held criminally liable. The changes will lower the 1.2 per mil threashold to 0.5 per mil and a total ban on drinking is proposed for those with driving experience of less than 3 years and for truck drivers. 

The paper has a two-page interview with Interior Ministry Secretary General Zhivko Kotsev, where he explains the proposed changes in detail and also takes questions about illegal migration, election crimes and some high-profile crimes. He says that alerts of vote buying are ten times more than in the previous elections and argues that it speaks of heightened confidence in law-enforcers. He says that investigations into domestic violence have increased 20% since the start of the year and that increase is a cause of concern. Also, grave traffic accidents have surged.

The new rules for driving under the influence was one of the topics in the morning show of Nova TV. The former chief of the Sofia Traffic Police, Tencho Tenev explained how the blood levels will be tested for some drugs. The active substances in some drugs for chronic conditions will be excluded from the tests, he said.

ECONOMY, FINANCE

Capital weekly runs an interview with Finance Minister Assen Vassilev headlined “Fee on Russian Gas Is Unrelated with Schengen”. The interview is heavily dominated by Lukoil, a new fee that Bulgaria introduced for Russian gas import to and transit via Bulgaria (whose constitutionality was contested by President Rumen Radev) and the campaign of GERB and MRF towards remove with immediate effect Lukoil’s exemption from a ban on the use of Russian oil. Vassilev says that the BGN 20/MWh fee on Russian gas had been consulted in advance with neighbouring countries Romania, Greece and Turkiye, as well as with the European Commission. He further argues that the fee is not discriminatory because it applies for gas supplies to Bulgaria as well, and reiterates that it will not burden additionally users in Hungary and Serbia because these countries have a fixed price with Gazprom, meaning that the only effect of the fee will be reducing the profits for Gazprom. “You know that Bulgaria is paying a similar fee in Greece and Turkiye for LNG, for the compression and for using the transit pipes,” the Minister says. He dismisses claims by gas transmission operator Bulgartransgaz that it will be the one paying the new fee: the method for collecting the new fee, which has been made public, clearly says that the fee is payable by the companies which book and use transmission capacity and not by transmission operator Bulgartransgaz. Asked about the 2024 budget, which is in the pipeline, the Minister says that the controversial aspects have to do with the tax legislation and with the government’s resolve to tighten control. Asked if he sees any risks to Bulgaria’s entry in the eurozone from 2025, Vassilev says that Bulgaria is holding talks with the eurozone countries and there is understanding that this country covers all criteria except for inflation. “There were some concerns regarding the deficit but that criteria will be met. In terms of legislation, what remains to be done is the revise the Bulgarian National Bank Act, which has already been approved by the European Central Bank and is now a matter of parliamentary time to be adopted.” Asked if the country has a Plan B if it fails to meet the inflation criterion, Vassilev says that talks are being held to allow an exception for Bulgaria - just like Croatia was allowed an exception and joined the eurozone even though it did not have a compliant debt-to-GDP ratio - and make a decision to allow it in the eurozone even though it does not meet the inflation standard. 

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Telegraf writes about a bird flu boom. The new hotspot is near the northern town of Debelets where 400,000 birds will have to be culled.

Duma also has the story.

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Duma reports that the Bulgarian winter resorts of Borovets and Bansko have announced that they will launch their lifts on time for the students’ holiday, December 8. Traditionally, Bansko does this for the weekend around December 8, but this year it will be open even earlier and will run on December 2,3,8,9 and 10. Borovets will have its gondola running on December 9 and 10 and will keep for those days its summer rates of BGN 30 for adults and BGN 15 for children and people over 65. It is the first time in many years winter resorts are announcing plans to launch their lifts so early. The news comes amid concern from industry insiders about the coming winter and the fact that the situation is "dire" due to a lack of advertising. Meanwhile, it has been announced that a new six-seat chairlift will be launched in the skiing resort of Pamporovo from Malina to Snezhanka Peak, which will cover a wide perimeter of the region's ski slopes. Bansko and Pamporovo have started a pre-sale of annual ski passes, says Duma.

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On bTV, Agriculture Minister Kiril Vatev said that farmers will get their money, but only after Bulgaria receives clearance from the European Commission. "There are rules in this life and they have to be respected. Before farmers are paid, Bulgaria has to get a permission from the EC. Negotiations were very difficult and lengthy. At our last meeting in Luxembourg we received full support for the abolition of the threshold for the so-called 'Ukrainian aid', which is EUR 250,000," he explained. He stressed the farmers claiming money now have already been paid subsidies but but want more. "They will get more money, but after a decision of the Commission. We are waiting for a written answer [from Brussels]. The money is there but if we make this payment now, we will distort the competition," he explained.

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Duma also writes that “there is a risk for Bulgarians to have to pay out of their pocket EUR 2.36 billion, which is the total amount of claims in international arbitration cases that individuals and companies have brought against Bulgaria,” according to Finance Ministry data. The potential loss by Bulgaria of any of the key cases would mean billions of leva to be paid by Bulgarian people through their taxes. The biggest compensation is claimed by the heirs of the deceased Lithuanian businessman Denis Ershov over the ownership of the Petrol fuel company. They are claiming EUR 1.07 billion in a case at the World Bank arbitration. The other major case against Bulgaria is brought by CEZ, and the claim ranges from EUR 934 million to EUR 1.043 billion. The case was filed before the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes with the World Bank Group.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Capital weekly carries an interview with Turkish Ambassador Aylin Sekizkok in which she answers questions about what determines the Turkish position on the ongoing conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in Syria and Libya, the Middle East; about its policy to migration; bilateral relations. She says that during times of turmoil and chaos being situated at a crossroads creates huge challenges. She also says that Bulgaria and Turkiye have never been so close in the past 30 years. She also dwells on the common history and says that it pains her to read about Ottoman rule in Bulgaria and see it being referred to as “500 years of complete darkness”, “Ottoman enslavement” and “Turkish barbarians”, among others.  “That is still in the schoolbooks and the museums have a 500-year gap: they tell about the First Bulgarian Kingdom, the Second Bulgarian Kingdom and then the gap. I ask myself and my Bulgarian friends, Is it really this that our common history looks like?”, the Ambassador says. She argues that it is time for the two countries to have an honest discussion about their common past, with the right focus and no unwarranted influences. “Before the Bulgarian independence there were big Bulgarian intellectuals and big traders who did a lot to preserve the cultural and religious identity of Bulgarians. Does that match the concept of ‘slavery’, or the ‘500 years of complete darkness’? I don’t think so,” she also says.

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The escalation in the Middle East dominates the international pages of the print media and TV morning programmes. On Nova TV, former deputy foreign minister Milen Keremedchiev commented the call by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres for immediate ceasefire to end “epic suffering” in Gaza, which caused a row with Israel and calls for the Secretary General’s resignation. Keremedchiev said that he would expect “a more moderate language from Guterres as rhetoric but not as a message”. Former Bulgarian Ambassador to the US Elena Poptodorova said that only 2% of the humanitarian aid has reached Gaza and it is distributed at Hamas’ discretion. She was adamant that Israel cannot accept a ceasefire.
 

SOCIETY

BNT reported in its morning show that Reporters Without Borders told Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov during his visit in Brussels October 26-27 that Bulgaria has made progress on media freedom in recent years. During the meeting, the Prime Minister highlighted the government's efforts to ensure transparency of media ownership and improve the media environment. In the organization's 2023 media freedom rankings, Bulgaria was placed 71st out of 180 countries. In the last two years, this country has climbed 41 places in the ranking.