site.btaUPDATED Five Formations to Enter Next Parliament - Alpha Research Poll

Five formations would enter the 49th National Assembly if elections were held today, show data from Alpha Research’s latest nationally representative survey. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents plan to vote in the April 2 snap parliamentary elections, while 13% are yet undecided and might make up their mind on Election Day. While the campaign has made 11% of respondents change their decision about which party they will vote for, 15% have not decided yet.

The poll was conducted through standardized interviews in person among 1,013 adult Bulgarians across the country between March 25 and 29. It was self-funded by Alpha Research. 

According to the survey, GERB-UDF will be supported by 25.9% of those who plan to vote, followed very closely by Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria with 25.4%. The other three formations to win MP seats are the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (13.8%), Vazrazhdane (13.6%), and BSP for Bulgaria (8.2%).

The confrontation between the two main rivals and the fact that the public is focused on them puts smaller parties and coalitions at a disadvantage, Alpha Research said. Theoretically, Bulgarian Rise and The Left! have a chance to cross the 4% electoral threshold, but their results will depend largely on their ability to persuade their supporters that it is worth going to the polls, the agency said. Bulgarian Rise is backed by 3.9% of respondents, The Left! By 3.1% and There Is Such a People by 2.3%.

As parties target mainly their core electorates, their messages fail to motivate a wider circle of voters to go to the polls, Alpha Research said. "The competition boils down to fighting 'for a few percentage points more', which cannot change dramatically either the political picture or the composition of the 49th National Assembly," the analysts said.

"Voter fatigue, frustration and anxiety about the futility of the last few parliaments makes the voters' attitudes and behaviour very uncertain. Possible shifts would not change the main parameters of the picture in Parliament. Forming a cabinet, however, will be just as difficult as in the previous Parliament," Alpha Research said.