site.btaCroatian President Almost Wins Second Term

Croats almost elected their next president in the first round of elections on Sunday. The final victory slipped away from the incumbent President Zoran Milanovic by less than one percentage point. Analysts describe as expected the result, but not the gap between the top two candidates.

Milanovic, the candidate of the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP), goes into the second round on January 12 after being backed by 49.09% of Croat voters on Sunday, according to data published on the State Election Commission's website after 100% of polling results were processed. His rival is the independent candidate Dragan Primorac, backed by the ruling centre-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) party and its partners, who won 19.35% of the vote. Croatia's voting turnout stood at 46.03%.

There were eight presidential candidates in total. Independent candidate Marija Selak Raspudic won 9.25%, the candidate of the We Can! green-left platform Ivana Kekin 8.89%, independent Tomislav Jonic 5.09%, MOST opposition party's Miro Bulj 3.82%, Home and National Rally's Branka Lozo 2.41% and independent Niko Tokic Kartelo 0.88%.

The Croatian media described Zoran Milanovic's result as a triumph and compared it to the victory of former President Stipe Mesic.

Milanovic, who won in eight Croatian counties in the 2019 presidential elections - as much as the then HDZ candidate Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic - this time won in all 20 counties, in the capital Zagreb and in the regional centres, the newspaper Jutarnji List reported Sunday.

The last time this happened was in the 2005 presidential elections, when Stipe Mesic fell just short of winning the first round by more than one percentage point. He was supported by 48.92% of voters, the newspaper added.

Analysts say there is no chance for the result to be reversed in the run-off.

Political analyst Berto Salaj from the Faculty of Political Science in Zagreb told Croatian national television HRT on Monday that the result was expected, but that a gap of 400,000 votes between Milanovic and Primorac was not.

This looks like a landslide victory for Zoran Milanovic - less so for the SDP, more for Zoran Milanovic - and a defeat for Dragan Primorac, but also for HDZ and (Prime Minister) Andrej Plenkovic, Salaj said.

During the vote count and according to exit polls, Milanovic had over 50% support at one point, but in the end his lead dwindled, Jutarnji List noted.

"There were some indications that Milanovic could sweep the competition, but this is beyond all expectations. He very nearly won the first round. That would have been a real sensation because the last time such a thing happened was in 1997, when Franjo Tudjman won a second term," analyst Viseslav Raos told Hina News Agency.

No big surprises can be expected in the run-off either, because the presidential candidate of the We Can! green-left formation, Ivana Kekin, who won 144,000 votes and came fourth on Sunday, said she would vote for Milanovic even though they disagree on many issues, Croatian media reported.

A key question is whether cooperation with the government could look different after this election. Whether there will continue to be mutual blockades and clashes on issues around which Plenkovic and Milanovic need to agree, Raos noted.

Milanovic is a critic of Western military support for Ukraine in the war against Russia. He is often compared to Donald Trump for his combative style of dealing with political opponents, the Associated Press noted.

Fifty-eight-year-old Milanovic, who is the country's most popular politician, served as prime minister in the past. A populist, he has been a fierce critic of Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, and Croatia's political scene has recently been marked by constant disputes between the two. 

After the results were announced, Milanovic, whose term expires on February 18, said he would reach out to the government after winning the second round.

"Thank you from the bottom of my heart, I extended a hand five years ago, I am not an Indian deity, I am not Shiva, but I will do it again to those who are most responsible for Croatia - the authorities," Milanovic said Sunday night as quoted by Croatian media.

He stressed that the first round was only the first leg of the race and that he was aware the fight would start all over again.

Plenkovic said the ruling HDZ was behind independent candidate Primorac. "I am glad that Dragan Primorac, the non-partisan candidate supported by HDZ and our six partners, made it to the second round. A new game, a new two-week political battle for the course of Croatia begins tomorrow, at least as far as the role of the President of the Republic allows. Dragan will have our strong support during these two weeks and we believe in his victory," Plenkovic said.

The presidency in Croatia is largely ceremonial. The president cannot veto laws, but he has a say on foreign policy, defence and security matters, Reuters said.

Milanovic has criticized NATO and EU support for Ukraine and often insists that Croatia should not take sides. He said Croatia should stay out of global disputes despite being a member of both NATO and the EU. He also blocked Croatia's participation in the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine, saying that "no Croatian soldier will participate in a foreign war".

During the campaign Primorac said that "Croatia's place is in the West, not in the East". His presidential bid, however, has been marred by a high-level corruption case that saw Croatia's health minister jailed in November - a topic that featured prominently in the election debates. Primorac said he saw the runoff as a chance to attract votes that were dispersed to other right-wing conservative candidates in the first round, according to Reuters. "My programme offers everything Croatia needs - unity, a better life, care for young people... care for pensioners," he said on Sunday.

Despite his populist rhetoric, Milanovic is seen by many as the only counterweight to the HDZ government, in which 30 ministers have been forced to quit in recent years over corruption allegations.