site.btaNew Olive Oil Harvest in Turkiye and Greece: between Moderate Optimism and High Expectations

The harvest is only measured when it is collected - most farmers will confirm this rule, but preliminary data gives some reason for optimism about the expected olive harvest and olive oil production this year in Turkiye and in Greece, two of the main producers in the Mediterranean region, where most of the world's olive oil is produced.

Adverse weather conditions last year caused a big drop in olive production and led to a sharp spike in olive oil prices. 

According to the European Commission, the price of olive oil in the EU increased by an average of 50% between January 2023 and January 2024.

Hopes for record-setting harvest in Turkiye

Expectations are high for the new season's olive oil harvest in Turkiye. The intense flowering of olive trees has already encouraged producers in spring after the weak past season (2023-2024), which sharply increased olive oil prices on domestic and foreign markets and led to a significant decrease in consumption. News about the seizure of fake olive oil has become a constant topic in the Turkish media in the past months.

However, experts recently quoted by the Anadolu News Agency have expressed expectations that production in the new season will surpass even the favourable 2022 for the sector, when 420,000 tons of olive oil were produced in Turkiye. In comparison, the country's olive oil production last season was 240,000 tons.

Against the backdrop of an expected good harvest, the sector is pushing for the complete removal of export restrictions on unbottled olive oil, introduced to lower domestic prices. The total ban on olive oil exports was eased with the introduction last month of a 50,000-ton quota. Producers are now demanding that the restrictions be completely lifted after October 31, by which time the latest measure is in force.

Local media, including the Economist news website, have quoted figures showing that the country has stockpiled around 150,000 tons and experts have warned that if the export restrictions continue, there will be nowhere to stock the new harvest and producers could lose customers on the foreign market.

"Olive oil, which would sell for EUR 9-10, is stuck in the warehouse," opposition MP Vehbi Bakilarioglu was quoted as saying by the newspaper. He warned that without the immediate lifting of export restrictions, "olives risk being left on the branches at these raw material and harvesting costs".

In view of the forecasts of an expected "record" season, there was logical talk of a price cut. 

Mustafa Tanyeri, chairman of the Chamber of Agriculture, told the local Yeni Soke newspaper that producers were under pressure to reduce olive oil prices to 100 Turkish liras (EUR 2.65) per litre because of the expected high yields in the new season.

Meanwhile, the price of a litre of medium-grade extra virgin olive oil in Turkiye is currently approaching 400 Turkish liras (10.60 euros) at retail, although producer prices are less than half that amount, Cumhuriyet newspaper noted.

More cautious but still mostly optimistic producers in Greece

This year's olive harvest in Greece is expected to be average to good, Greek news agency ANA-MPA reported.

According to estimates, production in 2024 is expected to be in the range of 250-280,000 tons, says the National Interbranch Organisation for Olive Oil, noting that for the forecast to come true, there will need to be no extreme temperatures and some rain. Last year, Greece produced, according to various estimates, between 130,000 and 150,000 tons of olive oil.

He assured that olive oil stocks are there, albeit small, and they will last until the next harvest.

According to the organization, the situation is similar in other parts of the Mediterranean. Spain, which accounts for 45% of world olive oil production, is forecast to produce around 70% of its maximum potential this year.

Another trend is the change in consumer habits over the last two years due to the high price of olive oil. "The decrease in consumption has been dramatic. At this point, it has shrunk by 40% compared to two years ago when the olive oil price race began," explained the president of the National Interbranch Olive Oil Organization.

He expressed optimism that the market would "correct itself" soon. "When the harvest reaches consumption, the trend that will follow will be for prices to fall in the shops," he said, and made a prediction that the market will return to an equilibrium point in the spring."2025 will be a year in which consumers and producers will be satisfied," he added.

Olive oil producers on the Halkidiki peninsula, one of Greece's important production hubs, are cautious in their forecasts, however, state broadcaster ERT reports. They point to the drought, which if it continues could adversely affect the harvest, as a major factor for concern. Harvesting of table olive varieties in Greece will start in September and of oil varieties in October, and the price trends of the new olive harvest will become clear then.