Greece will hold parliamentary elections on Sunday that should formally determine who will govern the country for the next four years. Parliamentary elections under the proportional system are held in a single round of voting, but according to almost all observers the May 21 elections are most likely to turn out to be just a prelude to a new vote in early July.
The elections on May 21 will be held under the ordinary proportional system adopted under the governance of the currently left-wing opposition party Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA). According to said system, the seats in parliament will be distributed in a ratio corresponding to the number of votes received by each political party. This means that if the votes likely to be cast for parties that remain below the 3% threshold are subtracted, the winner of the elections will need around 46% of the votes for an absolute majority and an independent government.
The ruling New Democracy (ND) party, which is leading in the polls, is firmly aiming to establish an independent government, according to Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. He has made it clear that if he fails to get a majority for an independent government, he will steer the country towards new elections, probably on July 2, which will be held under the electoral system adopted by ND. The system could not be implemented for the May 21 elections as it failed to get a qualified majority in parliament.
ND’s electoral system states that the first political force in the elections will automatically receive a bonus of 20 seats if it has received at least 25% of the votes. Thereafter, for every 0.5 percentage points it will receive one additional seat up to a maximum of 50 bonus seats. This means that an absolute majority in parliament will be achieved with 40% of the vote but given that around 8% is expected to go to parties that will not cross the 3% threshold, the required result for an independent government in a possible July election will be around 37%, not 46% as it will be in the May 21 election.
The recent polls predict between 32% and 38% support for ND with higher mobilization expected in new elections, which means that it is considered almost certain that Mitsotakis sees the current vote only as a prelude to the next one in early summer.
This, however, does not exclude other possible, although far less likely, options for forming a government. Given that ND has no incentive to form a coalition at this stage, if the forecasts come true, the only realistic option remains a coalition of SYRIZA and the centrist-left Movement for Change (PASOK). SYRIZA leader and former prime minister Alexis Tsipras has declared himself in favour of a government of broad cooperation with PASOK, but only if SYRIZA takes first place in the elections. Tsipras explicitly stressed that he would not make a "cabinet of the defeated". The polls give SYRIZA second place with between 25.7% and 31%, which means that a victory for the left-wing party seems entirely in the realm of hypothetical possibilities. However, the SYRIZA leader, quoted by Greek newspaper Proto Thema, still did not completely rule out the possibility of talks with PASOK to form a government, even if ND comes out first in this Sunday's elections, but only for a few months in order to investigate PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis' wiretapping scandal by the Greek National Intelligence Service.
Moreover, it seems that not all observers share PM Mitsotakis' optimism that ND will get the desired absolute majority in the likely second elections in early July. In a commentary by the international analyst firm Capital Economics, published a few days ago in the Greek financial e-journal Banking News, it is unlikely that any party will be able to form an independent government even after the nest elections, which would make an ND-PASOK or SYRIZA-PASOK coalition necessary.
Whatever coalitions may be imposed by political realities, it is unlikely that any of the political leaders will seriously comment on this possibility before the final distribution of votes in July. ND has so far ruled out the possibility of a coalition with PASOK, but said it is open to centrist voters. PASOK leader Androulakis did not entirely rule out either option, but said he will not support a government headed by Mitsotakis or Tsipras. The more significant issue is that after the rise of SYRIZA in 2015, PASOK (currently supported by around 10% of voters according to polls) continues to try unsuccessfully to regain some of its dominant position in the left. A coalition with ND would concede to SYRIZA the entire role of a major opposition force, while a coalition with SYRIZA would consolidate PASOK's minor role.
All this makes it extremely unlikely that the issue of Greece's governance will be resolved on Sunday. ND has suffered serious blows from the Androulakis intelligence wiretapping scandal, from allegations, albeit denied, of the use of spyware, and above all from the February 28 train crash that claimed 57 lives and sparked criticism of the government's handling of the railways. The government, on the other hand, is building on the good economic performance of recent years, on the rapid recovery of tourism after the pandemic and on the prospect of a return to Greece's investment grade rating - something that Prime Minister Mitsotakis has promised will happen within 100 days of the term of his eventual independent government. SYRIZA and PASOK, on the other hand, have not yet been able to fully erase the legacy of the financial crisis of the past decade from their history, and have also suffered serious reputational damage due to the arrest on corruption charges of PASOK MEP and former European Parliament Vice-President Eva Kaili last year, as well as the recent rape allegations against SYRIZA MEP Alexis Georgoulis.
Even if Sunday's vote does not lead to the formation of a government, it is seen as an important indicator of what kind of government Greece will have in July. A strong result by ND will be seen as an omen of self-rule. However, a wobbly result and a more level playing field with the opposition will likely signal the start of serious, though probably implicit, talks on negotiating a coalition government..
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