site.btaGERB 1.3 Per Cent Ahead of Socialists in European Elections - Mediana Poll

May 23 (BTA) - It is sociologically impossible to
forecast whether the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) or GERB
will win the May 26 European Parliament elections, as GERB takes
 a mere 1.3 per cent lead over the Socialists - a difference
that falls within the stochastic error, the Mediana Agency said
on Thursday, commenting on the results of a self-financed
nationally representative poll  took among 1,008 respondents
between May 17 and 21, 2019.

The poll found 31.1 per cent support for GERB among those who
will go to the polls, against 29.8 per cent for the BSP.

Mediana also detected full-scale deployment of all 'clandestine'
 mechanisms to influence voters: vote buying, voter coercion and
 corporate vote. As many as 22 per cent of those interviewed
said that vote buying or voter coercion systems function in
their settlements. One in eight (12 per cent) admits that he or
she personally has been offered money or coerced. The results
show that 14 per cent are inclined to respond to 'market demand'
 and sell their vote for 50 leva.

One in five (20 per cent) said they will vote but are still
undecided about their choice. "It is impossible to say whether
these people really hesitate or wish to safeguard their vote
against the coercion mechanism," the agency commented.

For the time being, three contestants have secured seats in the
European Parliament: BSP for Bulgaria, GERB and the Movement for
 Rights and Freedoms (11.4 per cent of those who said they will
vote). Another two contestants are close to the 5.8 per cent
natural threshold: VMRO (5.6 per cent) and Volya (5.1 per cent).
 Next come Coalition for Bulgaria (3.6 per cent), Ataka (3.5 per
 cent), and Patriots for Valeri Simeonov and Democratic Bulgaria
 (2.6 per cent each).

Mediana expects a substantially higher voter turnout than the
usual one in European elections, between 2.5-2.7 million. "Both
main political forces have clearly stated that the point is not
who we will send to Brussels, the point is about a change of
power and retaliation. These somewhat token elections have thus
proved crucial both for those who fear a change and retaliation
and for those who press for this," the sociologists argue.

According to the agency, those who want an early departure of
the Government (34 per cent) already outnumber those who want it
 to serve out its term (32 per cent). "A victory for GERB could
tone down this process, whereas a loss will definitely create an
 environment for early elections in the short term," the
analysts comment. RY/LG


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