site.btaMedia Review: December 9

The 2025 state budget and potential talks for a regular government dominate Monday’s news media. The recent events in Syria are also in the focus of attention.

ECONOMY

24 Chasa writes that this week, it will become clear whether the State will have enough money to shrink the 3% deficit and thus table a state budget that meets the eurozone entry criteria. According to well-informed sources, the talks with branch organizations continued over the weekend, and the caretaker Finance Minister has at least two options up her sleeve: extension of the current state budget to 2025, or a new budget that has a 3% deficit, 2.2% economic growth, inflation rate at 2.6%, pension indexation by 9%, income indexation by 10%, and a 10% tax on companies’ revenues. The daily’s sources say that following consultations with parties and experts, the Minister has kept the tax on extraction instead of concession fees, amnesty for undeclared incomes, higher excise duties on cigarettes and alcohol, reintroduction of the VAT of 20% for everything except bread, which will remain at 0%, and indexation of pensions by 7% to 9% and of salaries by 10%.

Telegraf has an interview with Bulgarian Association of Restaurants President Richard Alibegov, who comments on the idea for a reintroduction of the VAT of 20% for restaurant owners from the current 9%. According to him, that increase would equal bankruptcy.

Mediapool.bg quotes caretaker Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev as saying on Monday morning that the caretaker government will fulfill its obligation and will submit in Parliament a draft budget with a 3% deficit, so that Bulgaria can enter the eurozone. He did not specify when the 2025 state budget bill would be submitted. Glavchev noted that the caretaker government has already submitted 12 bills to the 51st National Assembly, four of which are on tax laws. "Anyone who deals with the budget knows that the tax laws, which are the basis for adopting a budget, are adopted first," Glavchev said. The caretaker cabinet will once again attempt to introduce a single revenue agency, judging from statements by the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister. The plan to merge the National Revenue Agency with the Customs Agency dates back 15 years but has not yet been implemented. 

On Bulgarian National Television’s morning show, former labour and social policy minister Hristina Hristova commented that the reason for there being a problematic situation with the budget procedure as well as with the philosophy of the next year's budget, is the political instability in Bulgaria. She called for the pension system to be analyzed and cleansed of non-contributory, non-work-related payments, so that it could be reviewed in in its pure form. Lachezar Bogdanov, senior economist at the Institute for Market Economics, said that the lack of information on what sums the social insurance contributions will be paid next year results in an increase in costs for businesses that pay high wages. He called for dialogue and a model in which there is predictability about what happens to the maximum insurable income, as well as the minimum wage and other major policy decisions related to social security.

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Segabg.com quotes caretaker Labour and Social Policy Minister Ivaylo Ivanov as saying Monday that about 340,000 pensioners will receive a Christmas bonus of BGN 100 on December 19. Eligible are only the pensioners who receive pensions and supplements up to the poverty line, which is BGN 526. Ivanov's words imply that there will be no income criterion for the bonus, as the Finance Minister has claimed. For the first time, pensioners receiving the minimum retirement pension - BGN 580.57 - will not be covered by the Christmas bonus. This is already causing dissatisfaction among them, especially as in just three weeks' time they will again be below the poverty line, because it becomes BGN 638 from January 1, the article reads.

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Telegraf’s front-page article reads that the childcare allowance for the second year of maternity leave will be reduced next year, based on the draft budget for public social security. 

Duma writes that under the bill, parents who receive the childcare allowance in their second year and adoptive parents who receive the childcare allowance up to the age of 5 should not receive the funds provided if they are working on a second employment contract with the same or another employer. 

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24 Chasa has an interview with caretaker Tourism Minister Evtim Miloshev, who talks about his expectations at the start of the winter season and his efforts to popularize Bulgaria abroad as an year-round tourist destination. The new tourist season begins well, and the Ministry expects over 280,000 visits by foreigners and more than 470,000 visits by Bulgarians at the ski resorts alone. This year, there is strong interest both by neighbouring countries - Romania, Serbia, Turkiye, North Macedonia, and Greece – and by traditional markets, such as the UK and Germany. The interest from Italy in urban tourism observed last year is expected to remain. A recent publication by Euronews on WTM London rethorically asked whether Bulgaria is the best year-round destination in Europe, Miloshev notes. Bulgaria is attractive with its diverse nature combined with options for health and cultural tourism, which British and European tourists seek ever more. In summer 2025, the Ministry expects an increase in the number of foreign tourists from Germany and Scandinavian countries. Targeted efforts are made to improve the air connectivity to attract visitors from overseas.

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24 Chasa’s front-page story reads that climate changes has significantly affected the production of chickpeas, olive oil, salmon, and coffee, the price of which has reached a record-high. 

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Capital.bg has an article about the consumer trends for 2025. According to a report by Euromonitor International, the factors that play a major role in shaping next year's consumer trends are healthy lifestyle, technology and sustainable products. The changes will require businesses to adapt to meet the growing demands for more sustainable lifestyles, environmental responsibility and well-considered financial spending. The report also highlights the financial priorities of consumers, who are expected to seek value over the long term rather than save money. According to Euromonitor, economic uncertainty will force consumers to be more careful with spending, although inflation is expected to ease slightly in 2025. Strategic buying will thus become the new normal, with 57% of consumers saying they already research their purchases in advance, and only 18% admitting they often make impulse purchases.

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Bulgarian National Radio on Monday morning interviewed Christoph Plate, Director of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's Media Programme for Southeast Europe. He talked about the state of the media in the region, noting that it differs between countries. After the end of communism in these countries, as in the former Yugoslavia, there was a phase of incredible creativity, and today there is a phase of frustration in the media, he said. "Social media today operate in a space outside the legal system, while private and public media have to adhere to certain laws. (...) Social media have to adhere to national and international laws and rules," he commented on the impact of influencers of the media. It is important that traditional media do not try to imitate social ones but focus on their mission, Plate argued. In many countries that have joined the EU, there is a phenomenon: initially all requirements and claims are met and then suddenly the interest drops, he commented when asked about media freedom in Bulgaria.

POLITICS

Bulgarian National Television’s morning show focused on the potential coalition talks after a National Assembly chair was elected on December 6. Approached for comment, GERB-UDF Deputy Chair Roumen Hristov expressed skepticism about the possibility of the National Assembly adopting next year's state budget before the end of 2024. He pointed to "the pre-election atmosphere in the air" as the reason. "I am very worried about the adoption of such a budget because populist sentiments will be very strong," Hristov said. He argued that there is a need for a more restrictive budget. "It will show what our intentions to Brussels," he added. "I am not optimistic about the formation of a government," the GERB-UDF Deputy Chair said. "We will get a [cabinet-forming] mandate as the first political force, we will start talks with the ambition to start a government, whether it will be for a four-year government or two, three years, we will see," Hristov noted. He added that GERB-UDF have stated their formula - GERB-UDF, Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB), There Is Such a People and Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) as a possible supporting political force.

On Nova TV's morning show, political expert Stoycho Stoychev and journalist Petko Georgiev commented on the possibility of forming a majority in Parliament.  Stoychev does not expect that to happen, at least not before New Year's Eve, because now the MPs will be busy with adopting a budget for 2025 and tax legislation. Georgiev commented that unless a majority for a regular cabinet is formed this week, there is no point in waiting for that to ever happen. The only way is for GERB to distance itself from MRF - New Beginning of Delyan Peevski, and that will hardly happen, the journalist argued.

On bTV’s morning show, Anton Koutev, former speaker of two caretaker governments, commented that there better be a state budget adopted by the the end of 2024 or January 10. According to him, there is always a chance for a regular government, and it is important to have a government even when the 51st National Assembly is illegitimate, in his words. Journalist Valeriya Veleva commented that the newly elected Parliament chair will bring discipline to the legislature. Both her and journalist Alexander Simov commented that it is more likely to have snap elections than a regular government due to inability of the parliamentary forces for reach an agreement.

SYRIA

Duma reports on its front page that Syrian rebels have announced they have liberated Syria's capital Damascus and toppled President Bashar al-Assad. The rebels entered the capital without resistance. Syrian state institutions will be controlled by former Prime Minister Mohammed Jalali until power is handed over. Assad has decided to leave Syria after negotiations with participants in the armed conflict, and has given instructions to proceed with a peaceful transfer of power, said Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova. Her statement did not say where Assad was. Meanwhile, Hungary has denied reports of his arrival in Budapest. Assad fell from power after the Islamist coalition Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, declared a terrorist organisation by the UN, the US and Russia, recently launched an offensive and by December 7 had taken major cities and, on Sunday, Damascus. According to the Bulgarian diplomatic mission in Damascus, 15 Bulgarian citizens and their family members have sought assistance to leave the country. According to the local authorities, 71 Bulgarian citizens are residing permanently in Syria, Duma writes.

On Bulgarian National Television's morning show, Middle East affairs expert Mira Mayer commented that the events in Syria mark the start of a new Middle East. "I think it is a very orchestrated story that we are yet to understand some things about," she said. According to her, the biggest winner is the Syrian people who have the opportunity to reject a totalitarian rule. From a regional point of view, the biggest winner is Turkiye, because the fall of al-Assad's regime solves two big problems for that country: the treatment of Syrian Kurds and the influx of Syrian refugees. Polls show that 55% of them would return to Syria now. Iran lost the most from the events in Syria and it is no longer the most dominant country in the Middle East, she argued.

On Nova TV’s morning show, Arab studies expert Vladimir Choukov and former deputy interior minister Milen Keremedchiev commented on the events in Syria. Choukov does not believe that the new power holders in Damascus will Islamize the country. The Syrian army has crumbled completely, and there could be refugees on the move but towards Syria, he said. Keremedchiev said that there is huge effort underway to maintain order and calm after the capture of Damascus. The desire is for the Prime Minister to remain in office. There are tensions in the big losers - Iran and Russia. "Hezbollah was one of the big helpers in keeping Assad in power 10 years ago. Russia is fully engaged in the war in Ukraine. They want to gain as much ground as possible so that they can have the opportunity for more serious negotiations after January 20. Assad's two main backers at one point weakened their positions," Keremedchiev commented.

On bTV’s morning show, journalist of Arab descent Mohammad Halif commented that Turkiye is behind the military operation against Assad in Syria. The operation was in the works for one year, and the rebels received NATO-standard training. The benefit for Turkiye is that already a large number of Syrian refugees on the territory of the country have returned to Syria. Halaf has information that Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon are also preparing to return to their homes. Ukraine also contributed a lot because the fall from power of Bashar al-Assad is a defeat for Russia. The journalist said that the Ukrainians had trained Syrian rebels to produce drones and use them; this allowed them to move faster. "So far there are no prerequisites to think that this change is dangerous for Syria, but anything can happen," he concluded.

HOME AFFAIRS

Trud’s front-page article is about the BETL company, which the daily warned about being a pyramid scheme in its December 6 issue. The UK-registered company has made USD 20 million in net profit in less than 10 months of its life in Bulgaria. The company, which does not exist in this country's Trade Register, promised a rich life to anyone who invested in their products. For this, investors had to become owners of mobile phone battery charging devices in China, and they would get paid in cryptocurrency. On the eve of December 6, it became clear that nearly 30,000 Bulgarians had been fooled: they found themselves with empty crypto accounts, and BETL's managers frantically closed their social media accounts and disappeared. Bosses with British names turned out to be phantoms - they used photos of real but unsuspecting citizens from Germany, Switzerland and Spain. They, in turn, announced that they would file complaints with the EU authorities about stolen identities in Bulgaria. USD 80 million is the total money from deposits of about 30,000 locals to the BETL pyramid, showed a reference to IT specialist Martin Nenov, who has been keeping a close eye on the company since January this year. "Of this amount, the first participants in the scheme have had about 50 million returned to their accounts in order to hook would-be suckers tempted by the idea of getting rich quick. Now everything has been covered up, the services have no way to catch them," the expert told the daily.

On Nova TV’s morning show, Dimitar Dimitrov, who is one of the scheme’s victims, said that he and his family lost BGN 20,000 and were left without savings. "Initially the conditions were wonderful. There were parties, dinners, which were paid for by the managers. There were trainings that Mrs Kalinina led. She assured us that this was a real company," Dimitrov said. He found out about BETL from a colleague. He joined through an invite code on his phone, after which a manager contacted him to request his names, age, address, and phone number. Dimitrov was then added to a Telegram group for training. "We gave money that we were led to believe did not make us investors but people who invest in their own development. The company would give us the money back after 30-35 working days because they wanted to keep our interest," he said. "They showed us a physical machine [phone battery charger]. In the first few months we had a couple of turnaround devices that we rotated around the cities in our country to show to relatives. After a few months they probably saw that the market wasn't expanding. And under condition, I would say outright pressure, they told me that if I did not open an office, our partnership would end," the victim further said. The office in question opened in August. Dimitrov lost tens of thousands of BGN over rent and supplies for the space. He did not sign any contract with BETL for that work.

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Trud has an interview with Assoc. Prof. Zornitsa Totkova, psychologist at the Institute for the Study of Population and Man, who says that drivers do not recognize distraction and high speed as a threat on the road. In a recent survey by the Union of Bulgarian Automobilists, 84% of the 2,356 Bulgarian drivers interviewed admit to using their phone while driving, and 63% to breaking the speed limits, she noted. “We need to recognise not only alcohol and drugs as often leading to road traffic accidents, but also many other risks, but these are either not talked about in the media or very rarely,” she argues. She believes that road aggression can be overcome to some extent through preventive programmes that inform drivers about the consequences of aggressive driving, high fines for those who are not influenced by the preventive measures, and intervention programmes aimed at overcoming certain deficits. Unfortunately, there are no such programmes in Bulgaria, Totkova notes.