site.btaBalkans Are Highly Seismic Region, Greece, Turkiye Have More Seismic Areas than Bulgaria - Expert

The Balkans are a highly seismic region, with Greece and Turkiye having more areas with seismic activity than Bulgaria, Corr. Memb. Nikolay Miloshev, Director of the National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (NIGGG-BAS), told BTA. He commented on a statement made by Turkish scientist Prof. Dr. Mehmet Ali Kaya, according to which a large fault line running through Plovdiv and reaching Edirne is expected to cause an earthquake with a magnitude of up to 7, putting at risk mainly Chirpan, Plovdiv, and Stara Zagora.

Earthquakes in Greece and Turkiye are much larger in terms of quantity and magnitude than those in Bulgaria, Miloshev said, noting that the two countries’ territories are also larger than Bulgaria’s.

Earthquakes are still not forecasted globally, he added, noting that in order for a forecast to be made, one must know where an earthquake could happen, how strong it could be, and when it could occur.

"We have a seismic zoning map of the country, and we know where the possible centers of increased seismic activity are. Plovdiv, Chirpan, and Stara Zagora are located in areas with increased seismic activity. Seismic zoning has been done once and has been subsequently revised. Estimations of the maximum earthquake magnitude in these regions are made based on historical earthquakes and the structure of the Earth's crust. The question of when an earthquake can occur still has no definitive answer," Miloshev said.

There are currently no grounds to believe that there is a change in the seismological situation, the NIGGG-BAS Director said.

There are currently no predictions of earthquakes anywhere in the world, not even in Japan, Miloshev noted. He added that a serious quake had hit Japan recently and no warnings were issued beforehand. "Japan has warning systems that are supposed to activate several seconds before an earthquake occurs, so power is cut off, high-speed trains slow down, and N-Plants’ reactors shut down, thus reducing quake damage," Miloshev said.

"The only viable warning system for Bulgaria is probably the one for earthquakes occurring in Romania’s Vrancea, since the distance is greater and information is expected to reach Sofia up to 20-30 seconds before the earthquake is felt," he noted.

The strongest earthquake in Bulgaria occurred in the village of Krupnik (Southwestern Bulgaria) on April 4, 1904. The magnitude of this quake has been measured at around 7.8, Miloshev recalled. It should be borne in mind that there were no instruments measuring the magnitude of earthquakes at that time, and it was estimated by looking at the destructive effects, he added.