site.bta2024 European Elections Expected to Shift Right, Including in Bulgaria, Says Think Tank

A forecast for the 2024 European Parliamentary (EP) elections shows that Euro-skeptic parties are likely to come third or second in Bulgaria on the backdrop of a major shift to the right in many countries. The forecast was put out Wednesday by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). Three newcomers are expected in the EP from Bulgaria: Vazrazhdane, There Is Such a People and The Left!.

EU-wide, almost half the seats will be held by MEPs outside the “super grand coalition” of the three centrist groups (Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats; Renew Europe; and the European People’s Party), and a populist right coalition of Christian democrats, conservatives, and radical right MEPs could emerge with a majority for the first time. “This ‘sharp right turn’ is likely to have significant consequences for European-level policies, which will affect the foreign policy choices that the EU can make, particularly on environmental issues, where the new majority is likely to oppose ambitious EU action to tackle climate change”, the analysts say.

Of the 17 MEPs Bulgaria is expected to send to the EP, 5 are forecast to be in the EPP group, 3 in the S&D group, three in the Identity and Democracy group (ID), five in Renew Europe (RE), one in European Conservatives and Reformists (ERC).

GERB-UDF is part of EPP, as is Radan Kanev MEP, whose DB party is now part of the CC-DB coalition, for which it is unclear whether they will run together or separately in the EP elections. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms are in Renew Europe and the Bulgarian Socialist Party is in S&D. The nationalist VMRO now has two MEPs but is not expected to have any after this year's elections.

Among the Bulgarian parties whose membership in the EP is uncertain, are CC-DB where CC will be a new player in European elections and is seeking to join Renew Europe, and DB already has one MEP but in the EPP group. Another one is Vazrazhdane, which is expected to get three seats, up from zero, and is expected to join the ID group but ECR is also an option. There Is Such a People may get one seat in the ECR group but they may be Non-attached just as well. And, finally, the Left, which is forecast to get one seat either in the S&D group or in the Left. 

The ECFR analysts write of Bulgaria: “Bulgaria has experienced five parliamentary elections since the beginning of 2021. This level of instability has contributed to the rapid acceleration of the anti-system vote, which the far-right and pro-Russia party, Revival [Vazrazhdane], has greatly benefitted from: it won 3% of the vote in the first of these five elections in April 2021, but 14% in the last election in 2023, making it the third largest party. If Vazrazhdane wins three seats in the European Parliament election, as we predict, it will enter the European Parliament for the first time, gaining institutional legitimacy. This could set a dangerous precedent as Bulgaria’s mainstream parties continue to lose their own legitimacy: after holding its fifth national election in two years, Bulgaria is still nowhere near forming a stable government.”

The European Council on Foreign Relations is an international think-tank aiming to conduct independent research on European foreign and security policy and to provide a safe meeting space for decision-makers, activists and influencers to share ideas.