site.btaMedia Review: November 17

DOMESTIC POLITICS

"GERB and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) are trying to bring down the Government without dirtying their hands," journalist Veselin Stoynev said in an interview on Bulgarian National Radio Friday morning. "Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) are trying to push the conflict aside, demanding the Interior Minister's resignation." Stoynev sees a political dimension to Thursday's football pogrom in Sofia. "A lot of appetites and interests are jostling for Lukoil's privatization, but they mist be hidden in some way. As they share power, CC-DB stand nothing to gain from prices at the pump soaring because of Delyan Dobrev's three-day derogation. Then the Government will fall even without a no-confidence motion," the interviewee pointed out. According to Stoynev, the public is "disgusted" and Bulgarian politics has become "totally pointless".

MOVEMENT FOR RIGHTS AND FREEDOMS

"The leadership has always been the main issue standing in the MRF," journalist Mehmed Yumer said in a National Radio interview Friday morning. "Mr [Ahmed] Dogan has his story. He is perceived by the MRF electorate as the indisputable leader. A replacement has always been under a question mark. Mr [Lyutfi] Mestan proved to be the ideal number two but failed to live up to expectations as a leader. Mr Dogan has kept his halo, he obviously remains the irreplaceable leader," the interviewee commented. "After Mestan was elected by the Kardzhali area, the Northeast was irritated. Then came Mr [Mustafa] Karadayi, from somewhere in the middle. Now is the turn of the North. Why not Filiz Hyusmenova?" the journalist noted.  

2024 DRAFT BUDGET

In its eight-page cover story titled "Budget through Rose-Tinted Glasses," Capital Weekly writes that Finance Minister Assen Vassilev has proposed an overoptimistic draft State budget for 2024 which came as an unpleasant surprise to many people. Vassilev made the partners of GERB and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) to feel fooled: instead of promising more spending, they now have to lobby for cost cutting. There is a risk that the revenue side will not come through, which would push the deficit above the permitted limit of 3% of GDP. Experts are divided over the philosophy of incomes outpacing inflation. One group, including Vassilev and Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov, argues that the draft budget is strained but realistic. The other group is afraid that a tax revenue growth of BGN 6 billion in 2023 and BGN 7 billion in 2024 is unrealistic, given the declining inflation. Capital expenditures, planned at a record BGN 12 billion (an increase of almost 50%), stand no chance of being implemented, critics say. Social spending is increased while the administration, the social sphere and healthcare remain unreformed. The weekly quotes an anonymous banker as describing the draft budget as "populist" and showing how "unnecessary deficits are preferred over taking unpopular measures."

In a page-long analysis in Trud, headlined "Apple of Discord: New Crop", Natalia Kiselova writes that the target to meet requirements for entry into the eurozone may have long-term adverse effects, costing a new government debt of BGN 11.9 billion. Another moot point between proponents and opponents both within and outside the ruling coalition is the planned increase of the maximum monthly contributory income to BGN 3,750 for 2023, BGN 4,130 for 2024 and BGN 4,430, coupled with a rise of the minimum monthly wage to BGN 933, BGN 1,052 and BGN 1,146, respectively. Keeping the flat tax on personal incomes is even more debatable.

Interviewed on two full inside pages in Telegraph, Confederation of Independent Trade Unions (CITUB) in Bulgaria Chief Economist Lyuboslav Kostov argues that at least 10% more money need to be budgeted for culture, higher education and agriculture. The interviewee notes that the planned allocations for wages in the public sector are BGN 600-700 million (BGN 290 million for teachers and BGN 375 million for all the rest), compared to BGN 1.5 billion asked by CITUB. He criticizes the lack - yet again - of a horizontal incomes policy in the budget. The Confederation backs the increase of the maximum contributory income and finds it an acceptable option for both employers and employees. Kostov is not sure that the revenue side will be fulfilled and is certain that the BGN 12 billion capital expenditures cannot possibly be implemented. CITUB favours a 15% corporation tax for multinational companies as a first step to a 15% profits tax for all.

Duma quotes BSP for Bulgaria Deputy Floor Leader Georgi Svilenski as saying in a televised interview that his parliamentary group will not back a budget which, as GERB proposes, raises taxes and freezes pensions. BSP for Bulgaria will enter a motion for taxation of banks' excessive profits and a cap on banking fees.

JUDICIARY

In www.segabg.com, Doroteya Dachkova writes that there are many honest, decent and qualified magistrates, but there are also other who regard their status as simply a well-paid public-sector job carrying a lot of power and responsibilities that are difficult to control. When tensions between these two factions mount intolerably, scandals erupt in the system. The author points out that several assistants working at the Bulgarian office of the European Public Prosecutor's Office, posted there by the Supreme Cassation Prosecution Office, all of them sons, daughters and sons-in-law, appointed "until the holding of a competition". It remains to be seen whether the competition will simply confirm them as full-time job holders. "To put it in a nutshell, starting from the top at the Supreme Judicial Council and going down to vices at some backwater court and prosecution office, no matter what reforms are carried out in the judicial system, the people there decide all. While nepotism prevails over professional standing, independence and adherence to ethical standards, we will not witness any tangible reform," Dachkova concludes.

FOOTBALL POGROM IN CENTRAL SOFIA

Telegraph leads on the street riots in central Sofia on Thursday evening as fans of otherwise opposing teams staged a protest against the leadership of the Bulgarian Football Union (BFU) during a Bulgaria-Hungary Euro qualified played behind closed doors. In the clash with riot police around the Vasil Levski National Stadium, both protesters and law enforcers were injured, a water cannon was fired, arrests were made, infrastructure and parked cars was vandalized, and dumpsters, a police van and an ambulance were set on fire. The coverage continues on two inside pages.

24 Chasa devotes two full inside pages to the pogrom, complete with photos. The daily says that when rampaging fans pelted the police cordon with firecrackers, stones, and even pieces of dumpsters, the law enforcers struck back with truncheons, pepper spray and tear gas. Sofia Police Chief Stefan Ivanov is quoted as describing what happened as "unprecedented vandalism and aggression." The daily notes that BFU President Borislav Mihaylov was absent from the match, and the Union's leadership was represented only by Yordan Lechkov and Emil Kostadinov.

Trud limits its brief coverage of the protest to its sports pages.

www.dnevnik.bg recaps the situation: "Dozens detained and injured, Sofia streets looking like after warfare, a police van set ablaze, a bar trashed, collateral damage, fear and tensions for over three hours in downtown Sofia." According to unofficial information, the protesters numbered between 4,000 and 5,000.

Nova TV reported Friday morning that 17 ambulances were called to the scene of the protest and treated the injuries of 24 people on site. Part of the people were hospitalized. They most often complained of fractured limbs, wounds sustained from sharp and hard objects, and bruises from beating. Many people were sprayed in the eyes.

"This football management has crashed, no matter how much they're trying to shirk responsibility" journalist Valentin Marinov said in a National Radio interview Friday morning. He expects Mihaylov to resign and a new BFU congress to take place "unless some maneuvring starts."

SCHENGEN ENTRY

In a page-long comment in Trud, Petar Kichashki says that the Netherlands opposes Bulgaria's accession to Schengen mainly because of the competition that the port of Rotterdam will face from Piraeus in Greece - the nearest entry point to Central and Western Europe for goods from India and China. Austria opposes the enlargement because it uses the Danube-Main-Rhine Canal to import and export goods to the World Ocean via Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp and Ghent. The author argues that Bulgaria should enlist Romania and Greece as natural allies in its drive to join the border-free area. In exchange for Greece's support, Sofia could back Athens if it tries to nationalize and/or curb China's acquiring ownership of the Port of Piraeus. Kichashki insists that Bulgaria needs responsible, long-term, far-sighted and wise diplomacy to advance the pro-Bulgarian front for Schengen, but the Bulgarian State keeps acting gulibly and amateurishly. "While politicians pool themselves together and realize their responsibilities, all of us will be suffering," the author concludes.

US - CHINA

Capital Weekly runs a three-page signed analysis of US-China relations, prompted by the meeting between the two countries' presidents. The author writes that the raprochement passes through deescalation of the economic war between Washington and Beijing but this is nowhere in sight. Despite Washington's measures, the dependence of the US on China remains unchanged. The stabilization of relations will enable Biden and Xi to focus better on their domestic challenges, the weekly points out.

LUKOIL DEROGATION

Interviewed on Bulgarian National Television Friday morning, GERB-UDF Deputy Floor Leader Temenuzhka Petkova said that under the Boyko Borissov's government, the refinery processed 50% non-Russian oil and 50% Russian oil. During some months, Lukoil entirely processed non-Russian oil. All facts show that we don't need this derogation." Petkova said that "it became clear yesterday that our partners of CC-DB defend Lukoil's interests". In her words, Bulgarian citizens stand nothing to gain from this derogation which only benefits the budget of the Russian Federation.

On the morning show of Nova TV, energy expert Ivan Hinovski and economist Evgenii Kanev said that the Government will not fall over the derogration controversy. According to Hinovski, this would damage the image of both GERB and the MRF. "The big question is not whether the refinery can process non-Russian oil, not whether oil is available or not, but the price at which it will be selling," Kanev commented. If Gazprom refuses to pay transit fees for its gas moved across Bulgaria, Bulgaria can confiscate part of its flow, the experts said.

SUPPLEMENTARY RETIREMENT INSURANCE

Trud frontpages the news that just 11.8% of the 18,449 people insured at universal pension funds who have already retired get life pensions of BGN 227 monthly. According to figures released by the Financial Supervision Commission, nine out of ten insured will get their money in staggered payments for a period ranging from one to three years. The money accumulated in universal funds averages BGN 6,141 per insured. A total of 4,977,000 people were insured in the four types of supplementary retirement insurance funds by the end of September 2023. Association of Supplementary Compulsory Retirement Insurance Companies President Evelina Miltenova argues that contributions to these pension funds must increase to 10% from the present 5%. The insurers also insist on increased tax concessions for voluntary retirement insurance contributions. Private pension funds managed BGN 21.347 billion by the end of September, up from 17.3% year on year. At BGN 81.2 million for January-September 2023, the contributions to voluntary retirement insurance funds have dropped by a huge 20%-plus from the like period of last year, mainly due to a minus 9.03% average yield. The number of people insured in voluntary pension funds has decreased, too, to 642,758 by end-September.

Covering the story on an inside page, Telegraph writes that the money amassed in universal funds increased from an average BGN 4,177.75 per person at the end of last year to BGN 4,612.87 at the end of September 2023.

In its coverage, 24 Chasa writes that 1,438 Bulgarians receive life pensions from the Second Pillar system, averaging BGN 254.33 monthly. Merely 8,000 people entitled to withdraw the assets on their account have done so. They received BGN 2.3 million-plus in aggregate between 2021 and June 30, 2023.

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

A two-page item in Capital Weekly looks into the news that Vivacom's owner United Group has signed a contract for acquisition of Bulsatcom, which would give the telecom a huge share in the paid television market. A1 Bulgaria and Yettel Bulgaria will challenge what they call an "unprecedented" and "impudent" transaction. For its part, United Group insists that the acquisition meets regulatory requirements but the Commission on Protection of Competition will probably come under serious pressure when it addresses the matter.