site.btaMedia Review: October 25

Austria's firm opposition to Bulgaria's entry in the Schengen border-free area, the Lukoil Neftochim controversy and the local elections are some of the main stories covered by the media on Wednesday.

AUSTRIA'S VETO ON SCHENGEN ENLARGEMENT

The media highlight Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov's meeting with Chancellor Karl Nehammer in Vienna at which Austria reiterated it is adamant to block Bulgaria's entry in Schengen.

The negative answer was expected as Austrian media said early on Tuesday the Chancellor's position was unchanged, capital.bg says. The webzine quotes Denkov as saying he is aware that Nehammer is under pressure from domestic political forces.

Mediapool.bg and the Bulgarian National Radio (BNR) quote Nehammer's statement that his country cannot afford to decide on Schengen enlargement at the moment. BNR quoted him as saying that Austria sustains economic losses due to its veto but when it has to choose between security and economic interests, it opts for security.

Segabg.com quotes Denkov as saying Sofia and Vienna concur that the protection of the EU's external borders must be boosted and the agreements with countries from which migrants arrive should be strengthened.

Unfortunately, Bulgaria and Romania cannot afford to wait for the "right political wind" in the countries blocking their Schengen entry, capital.bg says. Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Bulgarian-Romanian border has been jammed with heavy trucks. The Hamas-Israel war is also causing insecurity and the need for unimpeded movement between the two countries is greater than ever.

On Nova TV, former foreign minister Nadezhda Neynsky said: "Bulgaria, an EU member, is constantly in the role of a supplicant. We beg them and try to convince them that we have done our job. The problem is that the EU sees Bulgaria as part of the problem, not as part of the solution." In her view, it all boils down to credibility. The two large coalitions in the Bulgarian government often claim they are in a forced marriage, and Romania also has a rotating government. Therefore, both countries give the impression that their governments are temporary constructs, which is used as an argument in the EU because it does not want new problems in Schengen. Neynsky suggested that both the government and the opposition should talk to their European political families because joining Schengen is a national, not a political objective. "Each party should use its clout because European families can wield influence in different directions," she said.

LUKOIL NEFTOCHIM CONTROVERSY

Ruslan Stefanov, Program Director of the Center for the Study of Democracy, commented on BNR on GERB's proposal of October 20 that the exemption of the Lukoil Neftochim refinery in Burgas from the EU ban on supplies and processing of Russian oil be withdrawn by the year's end instead of in October 2024 as decided by Parliament. Moscow will continue to use its oil and gas instruments, with oil posing the bigger threat to Bulgaria, which is the world's fourth largest importer of Russian crude, Stefanov said. It is a cause for concern that companies are gradually adjusting to the sanctions and are seeking to avoid them on a larger scale. The refinery's technical adjustment to non-Russian oil supplies could take a few months, why did Lukoil need a two-year derogation, the expert asked. Lukoil's exemption from the ban on processing of Russian oil has been in force since December 2022 after the European Commission granted Bulgaria a derogation in mid-2022.

Vazrazhdane leader Kostadin Kostadinov told Nova TV the State was racketeering Lukoil by making its continued processing of Russian oil conditional on the payment of taxes. They want to sell the oil refinery to a Turkish-American consortium, he said.

In a press release, Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) Co-Floor Leader Delyan Peevski expressed surprise at Lukoil Neftochim's statement on Tuesday that it had paid all due taxes in Bulgaria. Peevski said that on Monday, Prime Minister Denkov told him and GERB leader Boyko Borissov that Lukoil had told Denkov's office they would pay BGN 500 million in taxes by the end of the week.

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The media quote Russian Lukoil company's announcement of the sudden passing of Vladimir Nekrasov, Chairman of the Board of Directors, from acute heart failure. Mediapool.bg quotes The Moscow Times as saying that he is the company's third top manager to have died in a year and a half.

OCTOBER 29 LOCAL ELECTIONS

Dnevnik.bg covers the first televised debate among the main contenders for Sofia mayor in the October 29 local elections: Vassil Terziev (Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria, CC-DB), Anton Hekimyan (GERB), Vanya Grigorova (Bulgarian Socialist Party), Deyan Nikolov (Vazrazhdane) and Violeta Komitova (Bulgarian Rise). They discussed overdevelopment, infrastructure, the responsibilities of borough mayors, the expansion of the Sofia Metro, parking problems and public procurement.

Duma reports that these local elections will be the most expensive at BGN 151 million, compared to the previous ones which cost nearly BGN 71 million. This time around, however, both paper and machine ballots will be used. The daily cites glaring examples of electoral roll padding: more than 600 people were registered in a single house in the southern town of Stamboliyski and a flat in Sofia was registered as the address of 99 people.

Interviewed by mediapool.bg, political analyst and media expert Ivo Indzhov says that after the local elections the MRF may be the second largest political force after GERB. The latter will lose ground in local government, though much less than could have been expected if there had been a mobilized opposition. The election campaign is marked by lack of a real clash of ideas between the main rivals, GERB and CC-DB. There is no meaningful debate between the top mayoral candidates in Sofia and the other cities, the reason being the quasi-coalition at national level. The candidates of GERB and of CC-DB have not opted for sharp confrontation because they do not want to burn the bridges of cooperation in Parliament and at the local level.

Interviewed by 24 Chasa, political analyst Teodora Yovcheva predicts low voter turnout, saying that numerous parliamentary elections have eroded the perceived importance of voting. Clearly, none of the candidates is convincing enough to make people vote for him or her. Regarding the mayoral election in Sofia, Yovcheva says the CC-DB candidate has mobilized support on the strength of the coalition, while he himself is an unattractive communicator. Support for this candidate is rather based on the claim for change.

PROSPECTS OF CHANGES IN CABINET: ANALYSIS

In a BNR interview, political analyst Tatyana Burudzhieva analysed the cabinet line-up in light of the October 29 local elections. She expects GERB to ask for personnel changes before the scheduled rotation of the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister in March. GERB and the MRF have sent clear signals about at least six or seven ministers who will have to go before the rotation. There have been claims that power is not effectively distributed between the partners and the government is not working well, Burudzhieva said. The analyst did not rule out a government formed by GERB, the MRF, and Democratic Bulgaria - the last mentioned coalition "has been silent for too long". It is important for Democratic Bulgaria to get out of the coalition with Continue the Change, which is not working well. Besides, CC will win too few municipal councillor seats in the local elections.

POLL

Market LINKS polling agency's Dobromir Zhivkov said on bTV a recent poll found that if elections were held today, five parties would cross the 4% electoral threshold instead of the six in the present Parliament as There Is Such a People would not win enough votes. The survey financed by bTV and Market LINKS was conducted among 1,032 people aged 18 or over between September 26 and October 8 through a direct interview and an online poll. GERB would win 23.6% of the votes of people who said they would vote, CC-DB 17.5%, the MRF 12.4%, Vazrazhdane 11.1% and the Bulgarian Socialist Party 7.9%. President Rumen Radev has improved his approval score and still is the most popular politician with 43% approval and 35% disapproval. Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov's approval/disapproval rating is 24-to-52. GERB leader Boyko Borissov's approval/disapproval rating is 25-to-60.

ANTI-CORRUPTION ACT: EXPERT

Interviewed by BNR, Andrey Yankulov, senior legal expert at the Anti-Corruption Fund, commented that the setting up of an Anti-Corruption Commission alone cannot bring about a dramatic change in the fight against high-level corruption. He stressed that the investigation in its entirety is directed by the prosecutor, therefore nothing will change substantially without a reform of the prosecution service and the concept of criminal justice in general. Yankulov added that there is no information as to how many high-level corruption crimes committed by senior public officials were uncovered by the previous Commission for Anti-Corruption and Criminal Assets Forfeiture. He also said the latest reform of anti-corruption legislation was made without analysis of the previous reform.

The Anti-Corruption Commission with investigative powers was set up under the Counter-Corruption Act, which became effective on October 6. The adoption of this law was linked to the next instalment of funding under the Recovery and Resilience Plan. In addition, Bulgaria hopes that now the Netherlands will take a more favourable view of its entry in Schengen.

ARBITRATION CLAIMS AGAINST BULGARIA

Trud says there is a risk that Bulgarians taxpayers might have to pay EUR 2.36 billion - the total amount of claims in international arbitration cases brought by citizens and companies, according to Finance Ministry data. The largest claim against Bulgaria was brought by the heirs of the deceased Lithuanian businessman Denis Ershov, the majority shareholder in Bulgaria's Petrol company with a network of filling stations. They claim EUR 1.07 billion before the World Bank's International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes.