site.btaPoland's West Always Votes Pro-European and the East Is Conservative; Turnout Map Clearly Shows Increase in the West - Polish Journalist Nikodem Chinowski

Poland's West always votes pro-European while the East votes Conservative, and the turnout map for the October 15 elections clearly shows an increase in the West, Polish journalist Nikodem Chinowski said in a BTA interview. With an experience of over 15 years in Polish and foreign media, Chinowski is currently working for the Polish daily newspaper Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.

He was approached by BTA to comment the performance of the key parties, the record-high turnout and the prospects for the formation of a government in Poland.

Asked whether he agrees that these have been the most important Polish elections, he said, "Not really." and explained that no elections would be possible without the previous ones. "This election were more interesting than the previous one because the outcome was not clear – the 2019 voting was pretty sure that PiS would win and keep ruling, so not much excitement."

Following is the full interview:

Q: How would you comment the results as a whole?

It has been clear for many months that PiS will take first place and KO will take second place. However, the most important factor in the election results were the performance of the other parties, which could form a governing coalition with PiS or KO. Here the matter was decided in favor of KO. Firstly, their result was quite close to PiS's result, and besides, the other two parties in the potential coalition – Trzecia Droga and Lewica - recorded good results. A negative surprise is the poor result of the right-wing Konfederacja (Confederation), which was indicated as a possible coalition party for PiS. The Confederation representatives themselves call their result a failure.

Q: Who actually won and who lost?

PiS won the elections, but they will not be able to form a government because they have a minority, even if they formed a coalition with the right-wing Confederation (which swears that it will not enter into a marriage with PiS anyway). Everything indicates that the government will be formed by three opposition parties - KO, Trzecia Droga and Lewica. These are parties considered liberal, pro-European, and strongly opposed to the PiS government.

Konfederacja, which expected a result of over 10%, also lost and won’t be an important player in forming the government, as they had expected. The party chairman, Sławomir Mentzen, himself called this result a failure.

Democracy also won - 75% of Poles took part in the elections. There was a huge mobilization of mainly opposition forces (KO, Third Way, Left), which can be seen by looking at the turnout map. The west of Poland always votes for pro-European forces (KO, Trzecia Droga, Lewica), and the east of Poland always votes for conservatives (PiS). Turnout data clearly show its increase in the west, i.e. among the opposition electorate. It helped a lot to make good result.

Q: Do you expect Third Way to be a kingmaker and what will this mean for Polish politics?

The ruling coalition will consist of three parties - KO will also be joined by the Lewica, not only Third Way.

Q: If Civic Coalition and Third Way form a government how will this affect now bad relations with EU?

These three parties are pro-European and strongly focus on closer integration with the EU. Therefore, we should certainly expect an improvement in Warsaw's relations with Brussels, after all, the KO is headed by Donald Tusk, who has been an important person in EU cabinets for years.

Half of the Third Way group comes from PSL (Polish People's Party). This is a largely rural electorate, so it is partly conservative. Certain ideological and European issues may be difficult for them to accept. However, it is still a pro-European grouping

Q: And relations with Ukraine?

In this case, I do not expect any major changes, because the Polish political scene was quite consistent when it came to the approach to the war in Ukraine. Only the Confederation strongly broke away from the general approach towards Ukrainians in Poland and demanded that they be denied social benefits. I expect that the new government will want to continue good relations with Kyiv, supporting Ukraine with logistics and equipment.

Q: How will you comment the result of the right-wing Confederation?

The result is below the polls and their expectations. However, it is worth noting that they have very large support among young people - so it is certainly a forward-looking party that is very consistent in its views and this is what convinces its voters. They are not excited about the government "here and now", they will calmly build their voter base and count on better results in the coming years. They are favored by the fact that, next to PiS, they are the only significant right-wing party and by demographics - the PiS electorate is mainly older people and Konfederacja's is young people. They may soon turn out to be the main force on the Polish right.

Q: How will you comment the highest turnout after the historic 1989 election?

We are talking about a certain social phenomenon, because this is the highest voter turnout since 1989, even higher than during the very polarizing presidential elections. The polling stations closed at 9 p.m., but a lot of people were still standing in queues, so all those who lined up at the polling station by 9 p.m. had the right to vote. The last people voted on Monday, even at 2 a.m. This shows the power of democracy – even though after knowing the election results (exit polls), thousands of people still kept standing half the night to vote.

PiS won in rural areas, with approximately 50 percent. support. However, the main mobilization concerned the cities and here the opposition forces clearly had the advantage. It can be said that the opposition coalition won these elections thanks to high turnout. In the 2019 elections, the turnout was 61.7% (18.7 million votes), in this election it will be approximately 75% (21.5 million votes).