site.btaMarket Links Survey: GERB-UDF Would Win If Early Elections Were Held Now as Support for TISP Declines

ESD 12:48:31 26-08-2021
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Market Links Survey: GERB-UDF Would Win
If Early Elections Were Held Now
as Support for TISP Declines


August 26 (BTA) - The formerly ruling GERB party would win if early elections were held now, as support for There Is Such a People (TISP), the largest parliamentary force, slipped by about 5 percentage points in a month, according to an August 13-22 nationally representative survey among 1,055 people aged 18 or over. It was financed and conducted by bTV and Market Links.

GERB would win 15.7 per cent of the votes of all respondents (21.6 per cent of those who would vote), followed by Democratic Bulgaria with 11.3 per cent of the votes of all respondents (16.5 per cent of those voting), TISP 14.2 per cent of all respondents (15.7 per cent of those voting), the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) 12.5 per cent of all respondents (15.7 per cent of those voting), the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) 10.7 per cent of all respondents (11 per cent of those voting), and Rise Up BG! Here We Come! 4.1 per cent of all respondents (4.5 per cent of those voting).

Nevertheless, the margin between TISP, Democratic Bulgaria and the Bulgarian Socialist Party is within the statistical deviation, meaning that each of them could place second if elections were held now, the analysts said.

Rise Up! have retained most of their support base but are still close to the 4 per cent electoral threshold. Vazrazhdane [Revival] is the new candidate for winning seats in the next parliament, with 3.1 per cent support of all respondents (4.3 per cent of those voting). It is backed both by sympathizers of TISP and of what were known as the patriotic parties, which were part of the government coalition led by GERB until April 4.

Market Links commented that electoral support for the political forces has shifted considerably within just a month, which could lead to an even more fragmented configuration in the next parliament.

The political crisis and the failure to form a parliament-elected cabinet with the mandates offered to TISP and GERB have heightened social tensions, according to the analysts. The Bulgarians' dissatisfaction with the country's course of development has reached a level nearly as low as in November 2020. While negative attitudes in the past months were mostly formed by a combination of the socio-political situation and the COVID waves, the weight of the current fourth COVID wave is much lower.

Of the key institutions, the National Assembly scores the lowest level of public trust, after a decrease by about 10 per cent in a month.

The approval rating of the caretaker cabinet rose by about 3 percentage points from July to 54 per cent in August. The most readily recognizable ministers, Economy Minister Kiril Petkov and Finance Minister Assen Vassilev, have approval ratings of 42 per cent and 31 per cent respectively.

The main takeaway from TISP's failed cabinet-forming mandate and the subsequent developments is that the responsibility is shared by the non-establishment parties, also known as protest parties - a view expressed by more than 40 per cent of voters. One in four blame the failure on TISP and 15 per cent blame the other two parties, Democratic Bulgaria and Rise Up! It is the political developments of the last few weeks that have caused a decline in the public approval of the protest parties, which is more marked for TISP and less so for Democratic Bulgaria and Rise Up! At the same time, the BSP and the MRF have partly resumed lost ground.

Voter mobilization seems somewhat energized after the low voter turnout (about 42 per cent) at the July 11 early elections. Society is politicized again, although it is considerably more fragmented than before the July elections. Possible same-day presidential and parliamentary elections in November are very likely to push voter turnout to around 50 per cent, which would lend the next parliament stronger legitimacy, Market Links commented. VE/DD