site.btaExacta Poll: GERB with Most Electoral Weight, Continue the Change and Socialists Tied for Second Place in Parliamentary Race

Sofia, November 7 (BTA) - As of November 5, GERB has the most electoral weight and remains the leading force in the race for Parliament, according to a poll by Exacta Research Group. Continue the Change and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) are tried for the second place.

The poll was held between October 29 and November 5 among 1,025 adult Bulgarians in 91 population centres across the country. It was conducted by face-to-face interviews on Exacta's own funding.

GERB gets 23.8 per cent of the votes of those who are determined to vote and have made up their mind whom to support. The formerly ruling party is broadening its influence in the 30-60 age brackets and among city dwellers outside the capital Sofia.

Continue the Change and BSP are neck and neck with 15.5 and 15 per cent, respectively. The results of the two formations have not changed much during the campaign. Continue the Change has an edge over the Socialists with its potential to win support among the politically indifferent and the hesitant voters. 25 per cent of Bulgarians who did not vote in the July 11 snap elections, are ready to support this newcomer in Bulgarian politics.

Exacta does not find an outflow of determined voters for Continue the Change after the Constitutional Court found that one of its founders, Kiril Petkov, was still a Canadian citizen when he was appointed Economy Minister in the first caretaker government of Stefan Yanev by President Rumen Radev. The court decision, however, may influence the decision of potential voters for Continue the Change.

The Bulgarian Constitution does not allow government ministers to have dual citizenship. Petkov declared his will to give up his Canadian citizenship before his appointment but the official document by the Canadian authorities recognizing that, came after his appointment.

The Exacta analysts say that the Socialist party has achieved a mobilization of its electorate that has not been seen in a long time. They believe this is due to the Socialists' regained confidence of being an indispensable factor in the formation of the next government coalition. BSP, however, does not have a potential to broaden its electorate further in the last day of the election campaign. 44 per cent of the BSP voters fear getting infected with coronavirus on the election day and for a third of them voting on a machine is a concern.

There Is Such a People, which was the biggest force in the previous Parliament, gets 12.5 per cent of the votes in this poll and remains the preferred party for voters younger than 30. It also has a considerable share among those aged 30 to 40 as well as in small population centres.

Another race that is too close to call is between the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (9.5 per cent) and Democratic Bulgaria (9.2 per cent), and with a strong final stretch of the race either one can approach the group of leading parties.

Ninety per cent of those who voted for GERB and BSP on July 11 now say they will vote for them again. MRF relies on 97 per cent of its July electorate and Democratic Bulgaria on just over 80 per cent. A third of those who voted for There Is Such a People now will vote for Continue the Change.

Rise Up BG! Here We Come! gets 3.5 per cent support among those who are determined to vote, failing to clear the 4 per cent threashold for entry in Parliament. The Exacta analysts recall that in the last two campaigns this formation clinched a victory in the final days of the campaign.

The nationalist Vuzrazhdane gets 3 per cent and VMRO 2.5 per cent.

The Presidential Race

If the trends observable as of November 5 remain, there is sure to be runoff elections between President Radev and the GERB-supported contender Anastas Gerdjikov and the result would be 63.5 per cent for Radev and 36.5 per cent for Gerdjikov. According to Exacta, the President has much bigger chances than the contender among both the determined and the hesitant voters.

In the first round of the presidential elections, Radev gets 48 per cent, Gerdjikov 27.1 per cent, MRF leader Mustafa Karadayi 7.5 per cent and Lozan Panov 7 per cent.

Exacta has seen the share of people that are determined to vote, increase since the start of the campaign. 57 are sure to vote and have made their choice. Some 8-9 per cent are sure to vote but are still hesitant whom to support.

Turnout could prove to be the big unknown in the November 14 elections. It could be considerably lower than expected due to a variety of reasons. For one, interest in the campaign is not very strong: 45 per cent are following the campaign for the parliamentary elections and 47 the presidential race.

Turnout will surely depend on whether or not people fear being infected with COVID on election day. The number of respondents who have such fears grew from one in five at the start of the campaign to one in three now.

In the recent weeks Exacta also observed a slight increase - from 13 per cent to 17 per cent - of people who aren't confident they will manage with machine voting. LN/