site.btaGallup Poll Shows 19.2% Voter Support for Tsacheva, 15.1% for Radev

Gallup Poll Shows  19.2% Voter Support for Tsacheva,  15.1% for Radev

Sofia, October 14 (BTA) - If the presidential elections were held now, GERB's candidate Tsetska Tsacheva would get 19.2 per cent support from all eligible voters, compared to 15.1 per cent for the Socialists candidate Roumen Radev, shows a nationally-representative poll conducted by Gallup among 998 respondents between October 4-12.

Sociologists forecast a runoff between the two candidates at this point. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) will play a decisive role, as it could mobilize around six per cent of all eligible voters.

The United Patriot's candidate, Krassimir Karakachanov, ranks third with 7.2 per cent. His campaign is in sync with the topics which the public currently finds relevant. It is difficult to predict whether the unification of the National Front for the Salvation for Bulgaria, Ataka and the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization will bring an electoral "bonus" and how big it.

Support for the Reformist Bloc's candidate, Traicho Traikov, is 5.2 per cent, followed by ABV's Ivaylo Kalfin (4.9 per cent) and businessman Vesselin Mareshki (4.7 per cent). The exact rankings will become clear in the course of the campaign.

It is yet to be determined whether and to what extent Tsacheva's nomination can mobilize additional supporters of Radev or Traikov.

Mareshki's performance is difficult to predict and can bring surprises as well.

Support for Tatyana Doncheva (Movement 21 - National Movement for Surge and Stability) is also considerable - 2.7 per cent of all eligible voters. So far, Plamen Oresharski does not show promising results with his 1.3 per cent. This, however, can change if he is backed by the MRF. Then, the candidates' rankings could change, Gallup comments.

The share of voters who will go to the ballots, but mark none of the above candidates, is difficult to predict and can be calculated based on around four per cent of all eligible voters, the sociologists explain.

Around a fifth of adult Bulgarians are unsure whether and how they will vote, which includes the bulk of MRF's supporters. Around ten per cent state that they will not vote, but this number will likely turn out to be higher.

The results of a hypothetical runoff between Tsacheva and Radev are currently impossible to predict, because of the small difference. Radev enjoys 29.6 per cent declared support, compared to 26.4 per cent for Tsacheva. According to the survey, 22.8 per cent of respondents said they are unsure or have not provided a response.

The data reflect a hypothetical situation and are a mere approximation. It is hard to predict at this point how parties will canvass in the runoff, the sociologists note.

Gallup note that it has financed and conducted the study as part of its own polling programme. It is representative of Bulgarians of legal age who permanently reside in the country. The data are not and cannot be a forecast for the presidential elections. They merely show momentary attitudes, as declared by the respondents. The elections will depend on many unknown variables, including the controversial formulation that voting is compulsory, the referendum's impact, the option to not support any of the candidates, etc., Gallup notes.