site.btaIvan Hadjiiski Institute Sums Up Political Developments in March 2018

Sofia, April 5 (BTA) - "A time of paradox" is how the Ivan Hadjiiski Institute for Social Values and Structures sums up political developments in March. The Institute's regular monthly analysis finds it paradoxical that Britain is both leaving the EU and has practically headed it, that the new appointments in the US have led to a prevalence of the "hawks" but have left a door open for Trump to be the necessary "dove" by inviting Putin. For his par, Putin scored a landslide victory, but this raised the even more pressing question about the succession. The same question faces Angela Merkel. Turkey continues to seek European legitimacy of a policy condemned as anti-European, the analysts say.

Commenting on the home scene, the Institute says that competition from the Left would rather help the ruling GERB, while competition from the Right would rather erode their following. That is why GERB is trying to minimize attempts at a new consolidation of the so-called "urban Right" by nurturing its own "conservative Right" on its fringe through public events organized by institutes, magazines and clubs, websites, and party figures of GERB, of the old Right and of the Patriots.

As to the opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), the Socialists ever more often side with positions prevailing in public moods, and the intra-party opposition remains in the shadow. BSP leader Kornelia Ninova's Western Balkans tour is also evidence of mobilization, according to the analysts. All this comes combines with BSP's traditional short-term and superficial hyperactivity whose only substantial impact is a daily presence in the media.

The analysis looks at the situation in the power-sharing three-party United Patriots coalition.

With its pro-Russian position, Ataka leader Volen Siderov is gaining in his niche, the analysis notes.

It is questionable how far Valeri Simeonov of the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria will gain in his niche, but while until recently he left the impression of being a liability for the government, he already projects a peculiar presence. Krassimir Karakachanov, the leader of the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation (VMRO), also gains, having regained his balancing status between Siderov and Simeonov, the analysts say. In this paradoxical win-win situation, the more unstable the Patriots are internally, the more stable they become externally - in government and in society. The coalition with GERB also get more stable because Prime Minister Boyko Borissov finds ways to communicate with all three of them separately instead of having to tackle their united front, the analysts note.

In their opinion, the opposition Movement for Rights and Freedoms is not really interested in early elections because it has yet to achieve internal consolidation after last year's jolts and the issue of a possible unification in their niche is not yet addressed.