site.btaFinance Ministry Revises Down 2018 GDP Projections

October 6 (BTA) - In 2018, real GDP growth is expected to
 reach 3.6 per cent, driven by internal demand, said the Finance
 Ministry in its autumn forecast published on Saturday.

In the first half of 2018 GDP grew by 3.4 per cent compared with
 a 3.9 per cent growth in the Ministry's spring projections.

Despite a favourable trend with regards to consumption, the
decline of exports resulted in a lower GDP growth and the
revision of the 2018 projections.

In 2019, GDP growth will increase to 3.7 per cent due to
stronger public investments and public consumption. Private
consumption will retain its relatively high rate of growth.
Exports will increase by 2.8 per cent after a more moderate
performance in 2018, caused by the worsened economic activity in
 Turkey which is among Bulgaria's leading partners along with a
number of temporary restrictions on trade with non-EU countries.
 

In 2018 employment is expected to grown by 0.6 per cent, driven
by greater demand for labour in the services and the industry.
Unemployment will go down to 5.4 per cent and for the first time
 will be lower than its historic minimum in 2008.

Given the current dynamics and the expectations of the
international prices of energy goods and materials, the average
annual inflation in 2018 is expected to reach 2.7 per cent.

The expected increase of global oil prices will result in higher
 domestic prices of energy goods including transport fuels which
 are expected to increase by 7.9 per cent at the end of 2018.
Non-food goods except for energy goods will continue to
depreciate but at a slower rate. 

Basic inflation is expected to contribute more to the general
price hike at the end of the period. RY/PP