site.btaFront-Runners in 2021 Bulgarian Parliamentary Elections: GERB

Sofia, March 31 (BTA) - This is the seventh piece in a series of
 backgrounders that BTA's Daily News is running ahead of the
April 4 general elections in Bulgaria. The series covers eight
parties and coalitions which polls show to be certain or likely,
 to various degrees, to win seats in the next Parliament: VMRO -
 Bulgarian National Movement; Bulgarian Socialist Party;
Movement for Rights and Freedoms; Democratic Bulgaria; Rise Up!
Thugs Out!; Patriotic Coalition - Volya and NFSB; GERB-UDF; Ima
Takuv Narod [There Is Such a People]. They are arranged
according to the number by which they will appear on the
ballots.

GERB

History

The party was established on December 3, 2006 on the initiative
of Boyko Borissov (then Mayor of Sofia) on the basis of an
year-old eponymous association called Citizens for European
Development of Bulgaria, whose acronym GERB means "coat of arms"
 in Bulgarian. 

GERB's Statute contains two noteworthy provisions. People who
have worked for the communist-era State Security and military
intelligence, whether full-time or part-time, are ineligible for
 members of the party leadership. State Security affiliation
remains a sensitive issue on Bulgarian public agenda more than
three decades after the fall of communism, and GERB's Statute
offers a radical solution in stark contrast with other large
parties, like the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), the Movement
for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) and VMRO, where having former
State Security assets in top positions has been regarded as
quite normal for years.

Secondly, Bulgaria's European perspective is highlighted as an
unconditional aspect of the party's endeavours. The Statute
lists "Europeanization" among the principles, and "Bulgaria's
integration into the European and Euro-Atlantic structures"
figures among the goals.

GERB came in first in the parliamentary elections in 2009, 2013,
 2014 and 2017, each time garnering more than 1 million votes.
It has been in power (in coalition with other parties) since
2009, with a break of about a year.

Ideology

In academic categories, GERB's ideology is classed as
Centre-Right, populist and conservative. It has a document
entitled "Policy Framework", which details its ideological
premises. They include "Christian-Democratic principles",
"liberal democracy based on freedom, responsibility, prosperity,
 solidarity and justice", "the power of the market, free
competition and fair rules in economic relations", and "social
market economy". The vision combines Left and Right,
Conservative and Liberal principles. This mix leads to the
obvious conclusion that "GERB is a party of all Bulgarians who
want change for Bulgaria."

GERB is affiliated with the European People's Party (EPP),
filling a niche in the domestic political spectrum that was
vacated by the Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) after the start
of the transition from totalitarianism to democracy.

The long incumbency is compelling GERB to adjust its policy to a
 specific and rapidly changing reality. As a result, particular
policies sometimes seem at odds with the declared ideas; one
example noted by analysts is the growing State intervention in
the economy.

Platform, Policies, Positions

GERB has a detailed platform for all sector policies. Besides
the specific numbers in the campaign promises (amount of
pensions, wages, etc.), its framework is built on a clear
message of continuity.

In recent years, GERB has incurred criticism from a broad range
of political and public factors, which is only natural,
considering that it is a party in government and all the critics
 seek to unseat it. Left (BSP), Right (Democrats for Strong
Bulgaria) and Liberal (MRF) parties, as well as President Rumen
Radev plus a myriad entities that have arisen out of street
protests last summer, are unanimous in decrying GERB for
offering "(even) more of the same".

To this, GERB responds by a platform of two key elements:
stability and predictability. These two elements can be
identified and traced in all sector policies of the party, in
its promises, the expectations of the future and the way
messages to voters are phrased. GERB rather counts on a
"steady-as-she-goes" policy line, which is evident from
expressions like "we will keep", "just as at present", "we will
continue to", "we are not going to change". The party apparently
 hopes that the accomplishments of its incumbency will be
acknowledged and appreciated. Analysts give GERB credit for the
country's fine macroeconomic performance and a good foreign
policy. Bulgaria's tackling of the coronavirus crisis, which has
 been achieved by relatively few restrictions, can also be seen
as a success.

Support Base Profile

GERB's platform may prove appealing to many: government
employees, pensioners, employer organizations and trade unions,
to mention but a few. These are strata and groups which regard
"change", "restart" and "dismantling the system" as posing an
element of insecurity and risk against the background of what
lies ahead for the country and the continent. Also, a regular
raise of teacher salaries in recent years suggests that there
are definitely groups which do not mind at all having "more of
the same". 

In a nutshell, the expected benefits of yet another GERB
government can attract enough votes for convincing showing on
polling day.

For the first time since it was established, GERB is not running
 for Parliament on a straight ticket. For the April 4 elections
it has coalesced with the UDF and will likely draw support from
the UDF base. Roumen Hristov, the chairman of the organization
that is emblematic of the Bulgarian transition to democracy,
tops the candidate list in one of the constituencies in Sofia.
The partnership is not surprising: in 2006 Borissov said that,
politically, GERB was Right-oriented, which is why he saw a
natural ally in the UDF.

Tactics, Ambitions, Goals

Unlike all its rivals, GERB can parade a record of achievements,
 which puts its campaign in a different light: it has more
positive overtones, lacks the aggression associated with
opposition rhetoric, and focuses on tangible, constructive
action (as opposed to destruction), such as infrastructure
projects built, promises kept, measures taken, and something
emerging in an empty place. 

GERB's messages prioritize things that people can easily
understand and connect with - unlike the Green Deal, for
example, which is left to experts. This is probably the reason
why the campaign does not dig in areas where the powerholders
can claim success, like foreign policy (the Bulgarian Presidency
 of the EU Council) and finance (the admission to ERM II, the
euro waiting room).

Personalities

Boyko Borissov is the party's acknowledged leader and emblem.
His personal style (behaviour, communication and rhetoric) are
often slammed for being both populist (in the sense of
unpolished) and autocratic. His political style is far more
complex and nuanced. The country's balanced foreign policy is a
good example of that. Borissov is ready to come up with
independent decisions without consulting his party (such as his
proposal for a new Constitution last year), but at the same time
 his political career abounds in examples of concessions,
compromises, and adjustments of attitudes and assessments (e.g.
on building new nuclear power capacities), which goes to show
that he defies hard-and-fast definitions.

Other prominent figures in GERB are Deputy Prime Minister
Tomislav Donchev and Labour and Social Policy Minister Denitsa
Sacheva. Tsvetan Tsvetanov is dramatically absent from this
list. A former second-in-command in the party, government
minister and one of Borissov's closest aides, he left the party
in 2020 after a property purchase scandal and started his own
political project, Republicans for Bulgaria, which is now GERB's
 rival. RY/LN/LG