site.btaSova Harris: The Odds in Favour of President Radev's Reelection Are 2:1 in Runoff with Contender Gerdjikov

Sofia, November 5 (BTA) - With the campaign for the two-in-one Bulgarian elections for President and Parliament on November 14 in its final stretch, support for the Establishment parties is consolidating and newcomer Continue the Change is replacing the favourite in last elections, There Is Such a people, according to a poll by the Sova Harris agency commissioned by Dir.bg and made public Friday. The poll also shows that the odds in favour of President Rumen Radev's reelection are 2:1 in a possible runoff with the GERB-backed contender Anastas Gerdjikov.

There are now three clear factors than can change the result: fear of machine voting among the older voters and the uneducated, vote trade and the fourth wave of the coronavirus pandemic, the analysts say.

The poll found that 52 per cent of the voters are determined to vote. The figure does not include those who vote abroad. That makes some 3 million people. It is 200,000 more than in the July snap general elections and 200,000 fewer than in the April general elections.

It is unlikely that the 21 per cent of hesitant voters will be motivated to go to the polls in the remaining days.

The poll shows that voter attitudes have remained largely unchanged from the July general elections. If voting was today, GERB-UDF would have got 23.8 per cent of the votes; the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) 16.7 per cent, Continue the Change 15.6 per cent, There Is Such a People 13.4 per cent, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms 9.7 per cent, Democratic Bulgaria 9.1 per cent and Rise Up BG! Here We Come! 4.1 per cent. Below the 4 per cent barrier for entry in Parliament are Vazrazhdane with 2.5 per cent and VMRO with 2.1 per cent. 1.1 per cent don't support anybody and 1.9 per cent support the other parties.

The emergence of a new strong project in the space of the pro-reform formations, Continue the Change, has mostly caused redistribution within this space, the Sova Harris analysts say. Continue the Change emerges as the leader here, replacing There Is Such a People. Democratic Bulgaria is also sustaining considerable losses, and so is Rise Up BG! The social makeup of the latter, however, will likely help it clear the 4 per cent threshold.

The current public sentiments largely reproduce the situation from last summer when Bulgarians protested against the Establishment in large numbers. For the majority of people, nothing has changed since then and the key players on the political scene remain the same despite the popular will for change.

Voters are doubtful of the success of the new parties and only a third believe that the next Parliament will form a stable government. As many are pessimistic and the rest don't know.

The poll is representative for the adult population. It was taken between October 27 and November 2 among 1,000 respondents through face-to-face interviews in the respondent's home. The poll was commissioned by Dir.bg. RY/LN/