site.btaBulgaria Does Not Need New Electric Power Capacities, Risk Management Lab Says

114 ECONOMY - ELECTRIC POWER BALANCE - FORECAST

Bulgaria Does Not Need New
Electric Power Capacities, Risk Management
Lab Says


Sofia, October 20 (BTA) - Bulgaria does not need new electric
power capacities, a forecast prepared by the Risk Management Lab
at New Bulgarian University shows. The report was presented
Monday by the head of the team, Ivan Ivanov, at a discussion
hosted by the Bulgarian Industrial Association.

According to the authors of the report, domestic consumption of
energy will decline in the future because of the negative
demographic trends, and the implementation of European green
energy and energy efficiency policies. Electric power prices
will rise and its export will decline, they argue.

Bulgaria's economy will gradually approach the average European
level of energy intensity, which presupposes reduced consumption
in the energy sector and reduced losses in the transmission and
distribution networks. Unlike the declining consumption of
electric power, natural gas consumption should increase because
of its competitive price, the diversification of suppliers and
increased local extraction, the analysts think.

The introduction of smart transmission and distribution networks
will streamline electricity consumption but the price will
increase, because a lot of investments have to be made to
achieve the European requirement for transition to a low-carbon
economy, R!sk Management Lab says.

Ivanov underscored that with the capacity exiting to date
Bulgaria will meet its needs completely. The large capacity
units with a long period of operation will provide the necessary
base electric power. Kozloduy N-plant will maintain an
acceptable level of the price of generated electricity, and the
Maritza East TPPs will contribute by using local resources for
higher energy independence of production, the experts think.
Hydropower stations, solar and windfarms, as well as
co-generation heating utilities will provide coverage in the
peak seasons and hours, so that there were be sufficient energy
for export.

According to the study, electric power exports will be limited
to 10.25 TWh in connection with the introduction of the
intersystem bonding connections in the EU. The establishment of
the EU Energy Union will lead to a competitive European electric
power market and part of the participants in it will offer
electricity at more competitive prices than the one generated in
Bulgaria.

In turn, reduced energy intensity will create conditions for
sustainable economic growth and generation of 27 per cent higher
GDP at gross electricity consumption declining by 2.3 TWh, the
experts have calculated. According to their forecasts, in a
couple of years natural gas will replace electricity in
household usage, industry, services and the public sector, and
this will lead to an additional reduction of electric power
consumption by over 6 TWh. Decentralisation of generating
capacity will reduce domestic consumption by an additional 1 TWh
or more.